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The long wave in economic life

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Summary

In this paper a review is given of the theory of the long wave or Kondratieff cycle. Five different categories of explanations are discussed, of which the most important ones are Schumpeter's innovation theory and the alternations in the growth of fixed capital, recently stressed again by Forrester. To these elements the concept of the industry life cycle and an explanation of clusters of basic innovations are added to complete an endogenous long wave mechanism. Using Schumpeter's four phases a long wave chronology is presented. This suggests that in the mid-1970s Western economies have entered the depression phase of the long wave.[/p]

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  1. Graduate School of Management Delft, The Netherlands

    J. J. van Duijn (Associate Professor of Economics)

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  1. J. J. van Duijn
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This article is a rewritten version of an inaugural lecture held at the Erasmus University Rotterdam, on May 12, 1977.

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van Duijn, J.J. The long wave in economic life. De Economist 125, 544–576 (1977). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01221051

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