Abstract
Climate change can affect fish individuals or schools, and consequently the fisheries. Studying future changes of fish distribution and abundance helps the scientific management of fisheries. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) was used to identify the “environmental preference profiles” of the studied species based on outputs from three Earth system models (ESMs). Changes in ocean conditions in climate change scenarios could be transformed by the model into those in relative abundance and distribution of species. Therefore, the distributional response of 17 demersal fishes to climate change in the Yellow Sea could be projected from 1970 to 2060. Indices of latitudinal centroid (LC) and mean temperature of relative abundance (MTRA) were used to represent the results conducted by model. Results present that 17 demersal fish species in the Yellow Sea show a trend of anti-poleward shift under both low-emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) from 1970 to 2060, with the projected average LC in three ESMs shifting at a rate of −1.17±4.55 and −2.76±3.82 km/decade, respectively, which is contrary to the previous projecting studies of fishes suggesting that fishes tend to move toward higher latitudes under increased temperature scenarios. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass could be the major driver resulting in the shift, which shows a potential significance to fishery resources management and marine conservation, and provides a new perspective in fish migration under climate change.
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Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Science at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2331, reference (Cheung et al., 2016b). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in FishBase at https://www.fishbase.org, the Oceanic Biogeographic Information System at http://iobis.org, SeaLifeBase at https://www.sealifebase.org, and Sea Around Us Project at https://www.seaaroundus.org.
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Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42176234), the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Creative Program (No. JDXT2018-01), and the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (No. GML2019ZD0402)
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Zhu, Y., Lin, Y., Chu, J. et al. Modelling the variation of demersal fish distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change. J. Ocean. Limnol. 40, 1544–1555 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-021-1126-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-021-1126-6