Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Decreasing monsoon precipitation in southwest China during the last 240 years associated with the warming of tropical ocean

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Based on an absolutely dated stalagmite δ18O record from Yunnan province, China, we reconstructed monsoon precipitation variations in southwest China since 1760 AD with a resolution of about 2 years. Combining the speleothem δ18O and observed rainfall records, we find an overall decreasing trend in monsoon precipitation in this region and suggest that the recent drought in 2009–2012 AD has been the driest since 1760 AD. Our speleothem record is consistent with the monsoon precipitation records reconstructed from tree rings in the Nepal Himalaya and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, it is anti-correlated with a speleothem record from central India, which confirms the observed anti-phase variations of Indian monsoon precipitation with moistures from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea on multi-decadal to centennial timescales during historical time. The long-term warming of tropical ocean may have caused the decrease of the land-sea thermal gradient and the amount of moisture transported from the Bay of Bengal, which may reduce precipitations in southwest China during the last 240 years. On decadal scale, El Nińo-like conditions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature may cause drought in this region. Climate model simulations suggest El Niño-like conditions exist in tropical Pacific under global warming scenarios. As a result, it is crucial to have adaptive strategies to overcome future declines in precipitation and/or drought events in southwest China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • An S, Kim JW, Im S, Kim B, Park J (2012) Recent and future sea surface temperature trends in tropical Pacific warm pool and cold tongue regions. Clim Dyn 39:1373–1383. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1129-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • An W, Liu X, Leavitt SW, Xu G, Zeng X, Wang W, Qin D, Ren J (2013) Relative humidity history on the Batang–Litang Plateau of western China since 1755 reconstructed from tree-ring δ18O and δD data. Clim Dyn 42:2639–2654. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1937-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson DM, Overpeck JT, Gupta AK (2002) Increase in the Asian southwest monsoon during the past four centuries. Science 297:596–599. doi:10.1126/science.1072881

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro D, Gouveia CM, Trigo RM, Wang L (2012) The 2009/10 drought in China: possible causes and impacts on vegetation. J Hydrometeorol 13:1251–1267. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-074.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayr T, Dommenget D, Martin T, Power SB (2014) The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability. Clim Dyn 43:2747–2763. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berkelhammer M, Sinha A, Mudelsee M, Cheng H, Yoshimura K, Biswas J (2014) On the low-frequency component of the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship: a paired proxy perspective. Clim Past 10:733–744. doi:10.5194/cp-10-733-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bi Y, Xu J, Gebrekirstos A, Guo L, Zhao M, Liang E, Yang X (2015) Assessing drought variability since 1650 AD from tree-rings on the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, southwest China. Int J Climatol 35:4057–4065. doi:10.1002/joc.4264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breitenbach SF, Adkins JF, Meyer H, Marwan N, Kumar KK, Haug GH (2010) Strong influence of water vapor source dynamics on stable isotopes in precipitation observed in southern Meghalaya, NE India. Earth Planet Sci Lett 292:212–220. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buckley BM, Palakit K, Duangsathaporn K, Sanguantham P, Prasomsin P (2007) Decadal scale droughts over northwestern Thailand over the past 448 years: links to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors. Clim Dyn 29:63–71. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0225-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai Y, An Z, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Kelly MJ, Liu W, Wang X, Shen CC (2006) High-resolution absolute-dated Indian Monsoon record between 53 and 36 ka from Xiaobailong Cave, southwestern China. Geology 34:621–624. doi:10.1130/G22567.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai Y, Tan L, Cheng H, An Z, Edwards RL, Kelly MJ, Kong X, Wang X (2010) The variation of summer monsoon precipitation in central China since the last deglaciation. Earth Planet Sci Lett 291:21–31. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.12.039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai Y, Fung IY, Edwards RL, An Z, Cheng H, Lee JE, Tan L, Shen CC, Wang X, Day JA (2015) Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y. Proc Natl Acad Sci 112:2954–2959. doi:10.1073/pnas.1424035112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen TC, Yoon JH (2000) Interannual variation in Indochina summer monsoon rainfall: possible mechanism. J Clim 13:1979–1986. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1979:IVIISM>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng H, Edwards RL, Shen CC, Polyak VJ, Asmerom Y, Woodhead J, Hellstrom J, Wang Y, Kong X, Spötl C (2013) Improvements in 230Th dating, 230Th and 234U half-life values, and U-Th isotopic measurements by multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Earth Planet Sci Lett 371:82–91. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2013.04.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cherchi A, Navarra A (2013) Influence of ENSO and of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 41:81–103. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1602-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) (1981) Yearly charts of drought/flood in China for the last 500-year period. SinoMaps Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Anchukaitis KJ (2008) ENSO reconstructions from long tree-ring chronologies: Unifying the differences? Special workshop on “Reconciling ENSO Chronologies for the Past 500 Years”, Moorea, French Polynesia

  • D’Arrigo R, Cook ER, Wilson RJ, Allan R, Mann ME (2005) On the variability of ENSO over the past six centuries. Geophys Res Lett 32:L03711. doi:10.1029/2004GL022055

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards RL, Chen JH, Wasserburg GJ (1987) 238U–234U–230Th–232Th systematic and the precise measurement of time over the past 500,000 years. Earth Planet Sci Lett 81:175–192. doi:10.1016/0012-821X(87)90154-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan ZX, Braeuning A, Cao KF (2008) Tree-ring based drought reconstruction in the central Hengduan Mountains (China) since A.D. 1655. Int J Climatol 28:1879–1887. doi:10.1002/joc.1689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S (2003) The Indian monsoon and its variability. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 31:429–467. doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.31.100901.141251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ge Q, Hao Z, Zheng J, Shao X (2013) Temperature changes over the past 2000 year in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Past 9:1153–1160. doi:10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griebinger J, Brauning A, Helle G, Thomas A, Schleser G (2011) Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon variability reflected by δ18O in tree-rings from Tibetan junipers. Geophys Res Lett 38:L03701. doi:10.1029/2010GL045988

    Google Scholar 

  • Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M (2008) Trends in the rainfall pattern over India. Int J Climatol 28:1453–1469. doi:10.1002/joc.1640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He J, Zhang M, Wang P, Wang S, Wang X (2011) Climate characteristics of the extreme drought events in southwest China during recent 50 years. Acta Geogr Sin 66:1179–1190

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendy CH (1971) The isotope geochemistry of speleothems: I. The calculation of the effects of different modes of formation on the isotopic composition of speleothems and their applicability as paleoclimate indicators. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 35:801–824. doi:10.1016/0016-7037(71)90127-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang H, Li Q, Gao Y, Zhong A, Chen H, Li J (2011) Diagnosis of the severe drought in autumn/winter 2009–2010 in Yunnan province. Trop Geogr 31:28–31

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang R, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L (2012) Analyses of the cause of severe drought occurring in southwest China from the fall of 2009 to the spring of 2010. Chin J Atmos Sci 36:443–457. doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11101

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaffey AHK, Flynn F, Glendenin LE, Bentley WC, Essling AM (1971) Precision measurement of half-lives and specific activities of 235U and 238U. Phys Rev C 4:1889–1906. doi:10.1103/PhysRevC.4.1889

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. B Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kennett DJ, Breitenbach SF, Aquino VV, Asmerom Y, Awe J, Baldini JU, Bartlein P, Culleton BJ, Ebert C, Jazwa C (2012) Development and disintegration of Maya political systems in response to climate change. Science 338:788–791. doi:10.1126/science.1226299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim ST, O’Neil JR, Hillaire-Marcel C, Mucci A (2007) Oxygen isotope fractionation between synthetic aragonite and water: influence of temperature and M 2+g concentration. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 71:4704–4715. doi:10.1016/j.gca.2007.04.019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Konwar M, Parekh A, Goswami B (2012) Dynamics of east-west asymmetry of Indian summer monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2012GL052018

    Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo J, Molteni F (2007) Low-frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: The “weakening”of the 1980 s and 1990s. J Clim 20:4255–4266. doi:10.1175/JCLI4254.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159. doi:10.1126/science.284.5423.2156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M, Bates G, Cane M (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Nino. Science 314:115–119. doi:10.1126/science.1131152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Xu H, Liu D (2009) Feature of the extermely severe drought in the east of Southwest China and anomalies of atmospheric circulation in summer 2006. Acta Meteorol Sin 67:122–132. doi:10.1007/s13351-011-0025-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Wang B, Cane MA, Yim SY, Lee JY (2013) Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Nature 493:656–659. doi:10.1038/nature11784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu ZY, Wen XY, Brady EC, Otto-Bliesner B, Yu G, Lu HY, Cheng H, Wang YJ, Zheng WP, Ding YH, Edwards RL, Cheng J, Liu W, Yang H (2014) Chinese cave records and the East Asia summer monsoon. Quat Sci Rev 83:115–128. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Gille EP, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Overpeck JT, Keimig FT, Gross WS (2000) Global temperature patterns in past centuries: an interactive presentation. Earth Interact 4:1–29. doi:10.1175/1087-3562(2000)0042.3.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCabe GJ, Markstrom SL (2007) A monthly water-balance driven by a graphical user interface. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007–1088, p 6

  • Medina-Elizalde M, Rohling EJ (2012) Collapse of classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction in precipitation. Science 335:956–959. doi:10.1126/science.1216629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mishra V, Smoliak BV, Lettenmaier DP, Wallace JM (2012) A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:7213–7217. doi:10.1073/pnas.1119150109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park HS, Chiang JC, Lintner BR, Zhang GJ (2010) The delayed effect of major El Nino events on Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 23:932–946. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2916.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Puranik SS, Ray K, Sen P, Kumar PP (2014) Impact of cross-equatorial meridional transport on the performance of the southwest monsoon over India. Curr Sci India 107:1006–1013

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan V, Chung C, Kim D, Bettge T, Buja L, Kiehl JT, Washington WM, Fu Q, Sikka DR, Wild M (2005) Atmospheric brown clouds: impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102:5326–5333. doi:10.1073/pnas.0500656102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ratnam JV, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Takahashi K, Yamagata T (2010) Pacific Ocean origin for the 2009 Indian summer monsoon failure. Geophys Res Lett 37:L07807. doi:10.1029/2010GL042798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:1606–1626. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sano M, Ramesh R, Sheshshayee MS, Sukumar R (2012) Increasing aridity over the past 223 years in the Nepal Himalaya inferred from a tree-ring δ18O chronology. Holocene 22:809–817. doi:10.1177/0959683611430338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen CC, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Moran SB, Edmonds HN, Hoff JA, Thomas RB (2003) Measurement of attogram quantities of 231Pa in dissolved and particulate fractions of seawater by isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectroscopy. Anal Chem 75:1075–1079. doi:10.1021/ac026247r

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi F, Li J, Wilson RJS (2014) A tree-ring reconstruction of the South Asian summer monsoon index over the past millennium. Sci Rep 4:6739. doi:10.1038/srep06739

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinha A, Berkelhammer M, Stott L, Mudelsee M, Cheng H, Biswas J (2011) The leading mode of Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability during the last millennium. Geophys Res Lett 38:L15703. doi:10.1029/2011GL047713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinha A, Kathayat G, Cheng H, Breitenbach SFM, Mudelsee M, Berkelhammer M, Du Y, Biswas J, Edwards LR (2015) Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. Nat Commun 6:6309. doi:10.1038/ncomms7309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stahle DW, Cleaveland M, Therrell M, Gay D, D’arrigo R, Krusic P, Cook E, Allan R, Cole J, Dunbar R (1998) Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the Southern Oscillation. B Am Meteorol Soc 79:2137–2152. doi:10.1175/1520-0477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tan M (2014) Circulation effect: response of precipitation δ18O to the ENSO cycle in monsoon regions of China. Clim Dyn 42:1067–1077. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1732-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tan L, Cai Y, An Z, Edwards RL, Cheng H, Shen CC, Zhang H (2011) Centennial-to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variability in the semi-humid region, northern China during the last 1860 years: records from stalagmites in Huangye Cave. Holocene 21:287–296. doi:10.1177/0959683610378880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tan L, Cai Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Shen CC, Gao Y, An Z (2015) Climate significance of speleothem δ18O from central China on decadal timescale. J Asian Earth Sci 106:150–155. doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2015.03.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao Y, Zhang W, Duan C, Chen Y, Ren J, Xing D, He Q (2014) Climatic causes of continuous drought over Yunnan province from 2009 to 2012. J Yunnan Univ 36:866–874. doi:10.7540/j.ynu.20140312

    Google Scholar 

  • Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94. doi:10.2307/210739

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ummenhofer CC, D'arrigo RD, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, Cook ER (2013) Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. Clim Dynam 40:1319–1334. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1458-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B (2006) The Asian monsoon. Springer, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Xiang B, Li J, Webster PJ, Rajeevan MN, Liu J, Ha KJ (2015) Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming. Nat Commun 6:7154. doi:10.1038/ncomms8154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer T, Shukla J, Tomas R, Yanai Mu, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res Oceans (1978–2012) 103:14451–14510. doi:10.1029/97JC02719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wernicke J, Griebinger J, Hochreuther P, Brauning A (2015) Variability of summer humidity during the past 800 years on the eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from δ18O of tree-ring cellulose. Clim Past 11:327–337. doi:10.5194/cp-11-327-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson R, Tudhope A, Brohan P, Briffa K, Osborn T, Tett S (2006) Two-hundred-fifty years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperatures. J Geophys Res 111:C10007. doi:10.1029/2005JC003188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu G (2011) Drought in southwest China. Disaster Reduction in China, vol. 1, p 26

  • Xu H, Hong Y, Hong B (2012) Decreasing Asian summer monsoon intensity after 1860 AD in the global warming epoch. Clim Dyn 39:2079–2088. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1378-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu H, Yeager KM, Lan J, Liu B, Sheng E, Zhou X (2015) Abrupt Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon failures: a primary response to solar activity? Holocene 25:677–685. doi:10.1177/0959683614566252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin H (2010) Droughts in southwest China: how far from drought to catastrophe? South Window 8:54–56

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Li Y (2014) Climatic variation of rainfall and rain day in southwest China for last 48 years. Plateau Meteor 33:372–383. doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00032

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang P, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Chen F, Wang Y, Yang X, Liu J, Tan M, Wang X, Liu J (2008) A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 322:940–942. doi:10.1126/science.1163965

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zhang X, Guan H, Xie Z (2011) The atmospheric circulation features of the heavy drought in southwest China in autumn 2009. Trop Geogr 31:21–27

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W, Jin FF, Zhao JX, Qi L, Ren HL (2013) The possible influence of a nonconventional El Nino on the severe autumn drought of 2009 in Southwest China. J Clim 26:8392–8405. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00851.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Moore GWK (2006) Reduction in Himalayan snow accumulation and weakening of the trade winds over the Pacific since the 1840s. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17709. doi:10.1029/2006GL027339

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The final version of the manuscript benefited for constructive suggestions from three anonymous reviewers. We gratefully acknowledge the National Key Basic Research Program of China (2013CB955902), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41372192; 41230524), West Light Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences (2012295) for funding this research. C.-C. Shen received financial support from MOST (104-2119-M-002-003). H. Cheng and R. L. Edwards received financial support from the U.S. NSF (EAR-0908792 and EAR-1211299).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, 710061, China

    Liangcheng Tan, Yanjun Cai & Zhisheng An

  2. Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710054, China

    Liangcheng Tan, Yanjun Cai, Zhisheng An & Hai Cheng

  3. Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing, 100875, China

    Liangcheng Tan

  4. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA

    Hai Cheng & R. Lawrence Edwards

  5. High-Precision Mass Spectrometry and Environment Change Laboratory (HISPEC), Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 106, Taiwan

    Chuan-Chou Shen

  6. Department of Geological Sciences, Center for Water Research, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, 78249, USA

    Yongli Gao

Authors
  1. Liangcheng Tan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yanjun Cai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zhisheng An
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Hai Cheng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Chuan-Chou Shen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Yongli Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. R. Lawrence Edwards
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Liangcheng Tan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tan, L., Cai, Y., An, Z. et al. Decreasing monsoon precipitation in southwest China during the last 240 years associated with the warming of tropical ocean. Clim Dyn 48, 1769–1778 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3171-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3171-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation