Abstract
Climate change and urbanization are significantly magnifying flood hazard, leading to a greater vulnerability of urban concentrations. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on urban flooding using future projected rainfall data and a calibrated hydraulic model. Two urban watersheds in Delhi, India (the Qudesia Nallah catchment and the Jahangirpuri drain catchment) are considered to evaluate the climate change impact on urban flooding. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to project future precipitation, which is then utilized by the hydraulic model to evaluate the impact on flooding. Climate data from three RCMs extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) are used to study the impact of climate change for historical (1990–2016) and future scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, 2021–2100). The rainfall projections are fed as 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods to a calibrated hydrodynamic Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results show that the flooded nodes vary between 2–6 and 12–43, respectively, in the Qudesia Nallah catchment and the Jahangirpuri drain catchment under present conditions but increase from 11 to 51 and 42 to 91, respectively, for future climate conditions. The results suggest that the risk of occurrence of flooding, duration, and frequency in the two study areas will increase in the future when compared to those under the present conditions. The results also indicate that the damage induced by the 20-year return period rainfall at the present time will likely be caused just by the 2-year return period in the future. This is due to the greater likelihood of rainfall extremes in the region. The potential flooding sites identified in this study will provide the urban municipalities with substantive information to perform ameliorative strategies.
Similar content being viewed by others
Code availability
The code may be obtained from the authors upon request.
References
Aditya S, Lal M, Silva N S, McCartney M (2017) Understanding the hydrological impacts of climate change in the Tana River Basin, Kenya. IWMI Working Paper, (178)
Agrawal P, Sinha A, Kumar S, Agarwal A, Banerjee A, Villuri VGK, Annavarapu CSR, Dwivedi R, Dera VVR, Sinha J, Pasupuleti S (2021) Exploring artificial intelligence techniques for groundwater quality assessment. Water 13(9):1172
Ahmed KF, Wang G, Silander J, Wilson AM, Allen JM, Horton R, Anyah R (2013) Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the U.S. northeast. Global Planet Change 100:320–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.003
Ahmed F, Moors E, Khan MSA, Warner J, Van Scheltinga CT (2018) Tipping points in adaptation to urban flooding under climate change and urban growth: the case of the Dhaka megacity. Land Use Policy 79:496–506
Anand J, Devak M, Gosain AK, Khosa R, Dhanya CT (2017) Spatial extent of future changes in the hydrologic cycle components in ganga basin using ranked CORDEX RCMs. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss. 9:1https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-189
Andimuthu R, Kandasamy P, Mudgal BV, Jeganathan A, Balu A, Sankar G (2019) Performance of urban storm drainage network under changing climate scenarios: flood mitigation in Indian coastal city. Sci Rep 9(1):1–10
Ashley RM, Balmforth DJ, Saul AJ, Blanskby JD (2005) Flooding in the future–predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas. Water Sci Technol 52(5):265–273
Avashia V, Garg A (2020) Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: an assessment of 42 Indian cities. Land Use Policy 95:104571
Barco J, Wong KM, Stenstrom MK (2008) Automatic calibration of the US EPA SWMM model for a large urban catchment. J Hydraul Eng 134(4):466–474
Bruen M, Yang J (2006) Combined hydraulic and black-box models for flood forecasting in urban drainage systems. J Hydrol Eng 11(6):589–596
Chen J, Brissette FP, Chaumont D, Braun M (2013) Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America. Water Resour Res 49(7):4187–4205
Chow VT (1964) Handbook of applied hydrology: a compendium of water-resources technology. McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York
Chowdhury RK, Alam MJ, Das P, Alam MA (2007) Short duration rainfall estimation of Sylhet: IMD and USWB method. J Indian Water Works Assoc 39(4):285–292
Denault C, Millar RG, Lence BJ (2006) Assessment of possible impacts of climate change in an urban catchment 1. J Am Water Resour Assoc 42(3):685–697
Djordjević S, Butler D, Gourbesville P, Mark O, Pasche E (2011) New policies to deal with climate change and other drivers impacting on resilience to flooding in urban areas: the CORFU approach. Environ Sci Policy 14(7):864–873
Dougherty M, Dymond RL, Grizzard TJ Jr, Godrej AN, Zipper CE, Randolph J (2007) Quantifying long-term hydrologic response in an urbanizing basin. J Hydrol Eng 12(1):33–41
Emami F, Koch M (2018) Sustainability assessment of the water management system for the Boukan Dam, Iran using CORDEX-south asia climate projections. Water 10(12):1723
Erler AR, Frey SK, Khader O, d’Orgeville M, Park YJ, Hwang HT, Lapen DR, Richard Peltier W, Sudicky EA (2019) Simulating climate change impacts on surface water resources within a lake-affected region using regional climate projections. Water Resour Res 55(1):130–155
Fang T, Ball JE (2007) Evaluation of spatially variable control parameters in a complex catchment modelling system: a genetic algorithm application. J Hydroinf 9(3):163–173
Fiseha BM, Setegn SG, Melesse AM, Volpi E, Fiori A (2014) Impact of climate change on the hydrology of upper Tiber River Basin using bias corrected regional climate model. Water Resour Manage 28(5):1327–1343
Gao X, Wang M, Giorgi F (2013) Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCC_CSM1. 1-RegCM4. 0. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 6:381–386
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level the CORDEX framework. World Meteorol Organ (WMO) Bull 58(3):175
Givati A, Thirel G, Rosenfeld D, Paz D (2019) Climate change impacts on streamflow at the upper Jordan river based on an ensemble of regional climate models. J Hydrol: Reg Stud 21:92–109
Gu X, Zhang Q, Li J, Singh VP, Sun P (2019) Impact of urbanization on nonstationarity of annual and seasonal precipitation extremes in China. J Hydrol 575:638–655
Guo Y (2006) Updating rainfall IDF relationships to maintain urban drainage design standards. J Hydrol Eng 11(5):506–509
Guo Y, Senior MJ (2006) Climate model simulation of point rainfall frequency characteristics. J Hydrol Eng 11(6):547–554
Gupta S (2017) Climatrans: a Report on Impact of Flood in Delhi. School of Planning and Architecture, New Delhi
Hamdi R, van de Vyver H, de Troch R, Termonia P (2014) Assessment of three dynamical urban climate downscaling methods: Brussels’s future urban heat island under an A1B emission scenario. Int J Climatol 34(4):978–999. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3734
Hamouz V, Møller-Pedersen P, Muthanna TM (2020) Modelling runoff reduction through implementation of green and grey roofs in urban catchments using PCSWMM. Urban Water J 17(9):813–826
Hazen A (1914) The storage to be provided in impounding reservoirs for municipal water supply. Trans Am Soc Civ Eng 77:1539–1669
Huber WC, Dickinson RE (1992) Storm water management model user’s manual, version 4. Environmental Protection Agency, Georgia
Hung CLJ, James LA, Carbone GJ, Williams JM (2020) Impacts of combined land-use and climate change on streamflow in two nested catchments in the Southeastern United States. Ecol Eng 143:105665. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2019.105665
Huq E, Abdul-Aziz OI (2021) Climate and land cover change impacts on stormwater runoff in large-scale coastal-urban environments. Sci Total Environ 778:146017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146017
IPCC (2018) Global warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pörtner HO, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Péan C, Pidcock R, Connors S, Matthews JBR, Chen Y, Zhou X, Gomis MI, Lonnoy E, Maycock T, Tignor M, Waterfield T (eds)]. In Press
Jewell TK, Nunno TJ, Adrian DD (1978) Methodology for calibrating stormwater models. J Environ Eng Div 104(3):485–501
Karamouz M, Hosseinpour A, Nazif S (2011) Improvement of urban drainage system performance under climate change impact: case study. J Hydrol Eng 16(5):395–412
Kaspersen PS, Halsnæs K (2017) Integrated climate change risk assessment: a practical application for urban flooding during extreme precipitation. Clim ServicesServ 6:55–64
Kiesel J, Stanzel P, Kling H, Fohrer N, Jähnig SC, Pechlivanidis I (2020) Streamflow-based evaluation of climate model sub-selection methods. Clim Change 163(3):1267–1285
Kite GW (1977) Frequency and risk analysis in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, p 224
Kumar S, Kaushal DR, Gosain AK (2018) Assessment of stormwater drainage network to mitigate urban flooding using gis compatible PCSWMM model. In: Singh UP, Chahar BR, Yadav HRP, Vij SK (eds) Urbanization challenges in emerging economies: energy and water infrastructure; transportation infrastructure; and planning and financing. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, pp 38–46
Kumar S, Kaushal DR, Gosain AK (2019) Evaluation of evolutionary algorithms for the optimization of storm water drainage network for an urbanized area. Acta Geophys 67(1):149–165
Kumar S, Agarwal A, Villuri VGK, Pasupuleti S, Kumar D, Kaushal DR, Gosain AK, Bronstert A, Sivakumar B (2021) Constructed wetland management in urban catchments for mitigating floods. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, vol 35. pp. 1–20
Larsen AN, Gregersen IB, Christensen OB, Linde JJ, Mikkelsen PS (2009) Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change. Water Sci Technol 60(9):2205–2216
Lemonsu A, Kounkou-Arnaud R, Desplat J, Salagnac J-L, Masson V (2013) Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate. Clim Change 116(3):679–692
Linnekamp F, Koedam A, Baud ISA (2011) Household vulnerability to climate change: examining perceptions of households of flood risks in Georgetown and Paramaribo. Habitat Int 35(3):447–456
Mehrotra R, Sharma A (2012) An improved standardization procedure to remove systematic low frequency variability biases in GCM simulations. Water Resour Res 48(12):W12601. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012446
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900
Muleta MK, Nicklow JW (2005) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model. J Hydrol 306(1):127–145
Nguyen TH (2020) Linking climate change to urban storm drainage system design: an innovative approach to modeling of extreme rainfall processes over different spatial and temporal scales. J Hydro-Environ Res 29:80–95
Niemczynowicz J (1989) Impact of the greenhouse effect on sewerage systems—Lund case study. Hydrol Sci J 34(6):651–666
Olsson JABKAOMAVM, Berggren K, Olofsson M, Viklander M (2009) Applying climate model precipitation scenarios for urban hydrological assessment: a case study in Kalmar City Sweden. Atmos Res 92(3):364–375
Ovbiebo T, She N (1995) Urban runoff quality modeling in a subbasin of the Duwamish River using XP-SWMM. In Proc Watershed Manag Symp. pp. 14–19
Roozbahani A, Behzadi P, Bavani AM (2020) Analysis of performance criteria and sustainability index in urban stormwater systems under the impacts of climate change. J Clean Prod 271:122727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122727
Rosenberger L, Leandro J, Pauleit S, Erlwein S (2021) Sustainable stormwater management under the impact of climate change and urban densification. J Hydrol 596:126137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126137
Rossman LA (2010) Storm water management model user’s manual version 5.0. Water Supply and Water Resources Division National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Cincinnati
Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Will´En U, Ullerstig A, Gollvik S, Hansson ULF, Jansson E, Kjellstro MC, Nikulin G, Wyser K (2011) The rossby centre regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus a: Dynamic Meteorol Oceanogr 63(1):4–23
Semadeni-Davies A, Hernebring C, Svensson G, Gustafsson LG (2008) The impacts of climate change and urbanization on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: combined sewer system. J Hydrol 350(1–2):100–113
Singh J, Knapp HV, Arnold JG, Demissie M (2005) Hydrological modelling of the Iroquois River watershed using HSPF and SWAT. J Am Water Resour Assoc 41(2):343–360
Stocker T, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor MMB, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker T, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen S, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley P (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, pp 3–29
Storch H, Downes NK (2011) A scenario-based approach to assess Ho Chi Minh City’s urban development strategies against the impact of climate change. Cities 28(6):517–526
Strandberg G, Bärring L, Hansson U, Jansson C, Jones C, Kjellström E, Kupiainen M, Nikulin G, Samuelsson P, Ullerstig A (2015) CORDEX scenarios for Europe from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, SMHI
Temprano J, Arango O, Cagiao J, Suarez J, Tejero I (2007) Stormwater quality calibration by SWMM: a case study in Northern Spain. Water SA 32(1):55–63
Themeßl MJ, Gobiet A, Heinrich G (2012) Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal. Clim Change 112(2):449–468
Tran HD, Molavi S, Muttil N (2011) Assessment framework for the impacts of climate change and urbanization on urban drainage systems. In: Pipelines 2011: a sound conduit for sharing solutions. pp. 1403–1412
Van Liew MW, Veith TL, Bosch DD, Arnold JG (2007) Suitability of SWAT for the conservation effects assessment project: comparison on USDA agricultural research service watersheds. J Hydrol Eng 12(2):173–189
Vemula S, Srinivasa Raju K, Sai Veena S (2020) Modelling impact of future climate and land use land cover on flood vulnerability for policy support–Hyderabad. India Water Policy 22(5):733–747. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2020.106
Wan B, James W (2002) SWMM calibration using genetic algorithms. In: 9th Int Conf Urban Drain 112: 92–105. Doi: 10.14796/jwmm.r208-07
Waters D, Watt WE, Marsalek J, Anderson BC (2003) Adaptation of a storm drainage system to accommodate increased rainfall resulting from climate change. J Environ Planning Manage 46(5):755–770
Wernstedt K, Carlet F (2014) Climate change, urban development, and storm water: perspectives from the field. J Water Resour Plan Manag 140(4):543–552
Wilcke RAI, Mendlik T, Gobiet A (2013) Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models. Clim Change 120(4):871–887
Xiong Y, Melching CS (2005) Comparison of kinematic-wave and nonlinear reservoir routing of urban watershed runoff. J Hydrol Eng 10:39–49. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(2005)10:1(39)
Yevjevich V (1972) Probability and statistics in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, CO, pp 149–158
Yira Y, Diekkrüger B, Steup G, Bossa AY (2017) Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(4):2143–2161
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the Delhi Government for providing the data to carry out the work. SK would like to acknowledge Computational Hydraulics International (CHI) Canada for providing PCSWMM academics license for SWMM model development. The authors would like to thank the three anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for their constructive comments and useful suggestions on earlier versions of this manuscript.
Funding
SK, VKG, SP, and DK acknowledge the financial support provided by the Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines) Dhanbad, for conducting this research work. DRK and AKG acknowledge the financial support provided by the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, for conducting this research work. AA and AG acknowledge the joint funding support from the University Grant Commission (UGC) and DAAD under the framework of the Indo-German Partnership in Higher Education (IGP).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest/competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Appendices
Appendix
See Fig. 9
, Table 6
Sensitivity analysis
For developing the SWMM, sensitivity analysis of the parameters is carried out, i.e. before the calibration procedure, the sensitivity analysis is done using all the eight parameters to analyze which parameters are more sensitive to minimize the error between simulated and measured hydrographs. A similar methodology has been adopted by Jewell et al. (1978), in which parameters are varied by definite percentage, i.e. ± 5%, upon their initial values holding other parameters constant and recording the difference between the model results. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters is shown in Figure A1 and descriptions of the sensitivity parameters along with the ranking is shown in Table A1.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kumar, S., Agarwal, A., Ganapathy, A. et al. Impact of climate change on stormwater drainage in urban areas. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 36, 77–96 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02105-x
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02105-x