Abstract
The paper aims to study the variability of spring barley and winter wheat yields, the most important crops in the Czech Republic, with respect to the variability of weather and climatic factors. Yields of both crops have been studied for 13 districts in Southern Moravia for the 1961–2007 period. From detrended series of spring barley and winter wheat yields, years with very low (lower than the mean minus a 2.5-multiple of the standard deviation) and extremely low (interval given by the mean minus a 1.5- and 2.5-multiple of the standard deviation) yields were selected. Years in which at least one of the districts had extremely low/very low yields were further analyzed. From 10 such years selected separately for spring barley and winter wheat, six of them agreed for both crops. Extreme years were studied using NUTS4-level yield data with respect to temperature, precipitation, the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), snow cover, frost patterns, and the onset and duration of select phenophases. Extremely/very low barley yields in 1993, 2000, and 2007 were related to high April–June (AMJ) temperatures, low AMJ precipitation totals, and negative AMJ scPDSI (indicating drought) with an earlier onset of flowering and full ripeness and shorter intervals from tillering to flowering and from flowering to full ripeness compared to the entire 1961–2007 mean. As for extremely/very low winter wheat yields, in addition to the previously mentioned factors, winter patterns also played an important role, particularly the occurrence of severe frosts with a coinciding lack of snow cover and a long-lasting snow cover (in highlands), indicating that low yields are the result of not only one unfavorable factor but a combination of several of them.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bičík I, Chromý P, Jančák V, Jeleček L, Štěpánek V, Winklerová J, Kupková L (2001) Land use/land cover changes in Czechia over the past 150 years—an overview. In: Himiyama Y, Mather A, Bičík I, Milanova VE (eds) Land use/cover changes in selected regions in the world. IGU-LUCC, Hokkaido University of Education, Asahikawa, pp 29–39
Brázdil R, Březina L, Dobrovolný P, Dubrovský M, Halásová O, Hostýnek J, Chromá K, Janderková J, Kaláb Z, Keprtová K, Kirchner K, Kotyza O, Krejčí O, Kunc J, Lacina J, Lepka J, Létal A, Macková J, Máčka Z, Mulíček O, Roštínský P, Řehánek T, Seidenglanz D, Semerádová D, Sokol Z, Soukalová E, Štekl J, Trnka M, Valášek H, Věžník A, Voženílek V, Žalud Z (2007) Vybrané přírodní extrémy a jejich dopady na Moravě a ve Slezsku (Selected natural extremes and their impacts in Moravia and Silesia). Masaryk University, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Institute of Geonics. Academy of Science of the Czech Republic, Brno, Praha, Ostrava, p 432
Brázdil R, Máčka Z, Řezníčková L, Soukalová E, Dobrovolný P, Grygar T (2011) Floods and floodplain changes of the River Morava, the Strážnické Pomoraví region (Czech Republic) over the past 130 years. Hydrol Sci J 56:1166–1185
Brázdil R, Zahradníček P, Pišoft P, Štěpánek P, Bělínová M, Dobrovolný P (2012) Temperature and precipitation fluctuations in the Czech Republic during the period of instrumental measurements. Theor Appl Climatol 110:17–34
Chloupek O, Hrstková P, Schweigert P (2004) Yield and its stability, crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change, weather and fertilisation over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries. Field Crop Res 85:167–190
Czech Statistical Office (1981) Definitivní údaje o sklizni zemědělských plodin za rok 1980 (Final harvest data of agricultural crops in 1980). Český statistický úřad, Brno, p 194
Eitzinger J, Trnka M, Semerádová D, Thaler S, Svobodová E, Hlavinka P, Šiška B, Takáč J, Malatinská L, Nováková M, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z (2012) Regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe—hotspots, regional differences and common trends. J Agric Sci. doi:10.1017/S0021859612000767, online
Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN, van Velhuizen H (2005) Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:2067–2083
Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1149–1165
Hlavinka P, Trnka M, Semerádová D, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z, Možný M (2009) Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic. Agric For Meteorol 149:431–442
Kristensen K, Schelde K, Olesen JE (2011) Winter wheat yield response to climate variability in Denmark. J Agric Sci 149:33–47
Landau S, Mitchell RAC, Barnett V, Colls JJ, Craigon J, Payne RW (2000) A parsimonious, multiple-regression model of wheat yield response to environment. Agric For Meteorol 101:151–166
Lavalle C, Micale F, Houston TD, Camia A, Hiederer R, Lazar C, Conte C, Amatulli G, Genovese G (2009) Climate change in Europe. 3. Impact on agriculture and forestry. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 29:433–446
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Sci 29:616–620
Olesen JE, Bindi M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agriculture productivity, land use and policy. Eur J Agron 16:239–262
Olesen JE, Trnka M, Kersebaum KC, Skjelvag AO, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rossi F, Kozyra J, Micale F (2011) Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change. Eur J Agron 34:96–112
Olesen JE, Børgensen CD, Elsgaard L, Palosuo T, Rötter R, Skjelvåg AO, Peltonen-Sainio P, Börjesson T, Trnka M, Ewert F, Siebert S, Brisson N, Eitzinger J, van der Fels-Klerx HJ, van Asselt E (2012) Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Addit Contam A 29:1527–1542
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological Drought. Office of Climatology Research Paper 45. U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, p 58
Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K (2009) Are there indications of climate change induced increases in variability of major field crops in the northernmost European conditions? Agric Food Sci 18:206–226
Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Trnka M, Olesen JE, Calanca PL, Eckersten H, Eitzinger J, Gobin A, Kersebaum KC, Kozyra J, Kumar S, Marta AD, Micale F, Schaap B, Seguin B, Skjelvag AO, Orlandini S (2010) Coincidence of variation in yield and climate in Europe. Agric Ecosyst Environ 139:483–489
Petr J (ed) (1987) Počasí a výnosy (Weather and yields). Státní zemědělské nakladatelství, Praha, p 368
Porter JR, Gawith M (1999) Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur J Agron 10:23–36
Quiring SM, Papakryiakou TN (2003) An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies. Agric For Meteorol 118:49–62
Rajala A, Hakala K, Mäkelä P, Muurinen S, Peltonen-Sainio P (2009) Spring wheat response to timing of water deficit through sink and grain filling capacity. Field Crop Res 114:263–271
Ramankutty N, Foley JA (1999) Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 13:997–1027
Semenov MA, Shewry PR (2011) Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Sci Rep 1:66
Soja G, Soja A, Eitzinger J, Gruszczynski G, Trnka M, Kubu G, Formayer H, Schneider W, Suppan F, Koukal T (2005) Analyse der Auswirkungen der Trockenheit 2003 in der Landswirtschaft Österreichs—Vergleich verschiedener Methoden. Endbericht von StartClim 2004.C: Analysen von Hitze und Trockenheit und deren Auswirkungen in Österreich. Endbericht, Auftraggeber: BMLFUW, BMBWK, BMWA, Österreichische Hagelversicherung, Österreichische Nationalbank, Umweltbundesamt, Verbund AHP
Tomášek M (2000) Půdy České republiky (Soils of the Czech Republic). Česká geologická služba, Praha, p 67
Trnka M, Hlavinka P, Semerádová D, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z, Možný M (2007) Agricultural drought and spring barley yields in the Czech Republic. Plant Soil Environ 53:306–316
Trnka M, Dubrovský M, Svoboda M, Semerádová D, Hayes M, Žalud Z, Wilhite D (2009) Developing a regional drought climatology for the Czech Republic. Int J Climatol 29:863–883
Trnka M, Kocmánková E, Balek J, Eitzinger J, Ruget F, Formayer H, Hlavinka P, Schaumberger A, Horáková V, Možný M, Žalud Z (2010) Simple snow cover model for agrometeorological applications. Agric For Meteorol 150:1115–1127
Trnka M, Brázdil R, Olesen JE, Eitzinger J, Zahradníček P, Kocmánková E, Dobrovolný P, Štěpánek P, Možný M, Bartošová L, Hlavinka P, Semerádová D, Valášek H, Havlíček M, Horáková V, Fischer M, Žalud Z (2012) Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change? Agric For Meteorol 166–167:62–71
Ugarte C, Calderini DF, Slafer GA (2007) Grain weight and grain number responsiveness to pre-anthesis temperature in wheat, barley and triticale. Field Crop Res 100:240–248
Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. J Clim 17:2335–2351
Zahradníček P, Trnka M, Brázdil R, Možný M, Dobrovolný P, Štěpánek P, Hlavinka P, Semerádová D (2013) The extreme drought episode August 2011–May 2012 in the Czech Republic, in preparation
Zimolka J (ed) (2006) Ječmen—formy a užitkové směry v České republice (Barley—forms and ways of utilisation in the Czech Republic). Profi-Press, Praha, p 200
Acknowledgments
P. Kolář was supported by the project MUNI/A/0902/2012 “Global environmental changes and their impacts”, M. Trnka by the project “Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research” (no. OP VK CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248), R. Brázdil by the project of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (no. 13-19831S), and P. Hlavinka by a project funded by the National Agency for Agricultural Research (no. QJ1310123).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kolář, P., Trnka, M., Brázdil, R. et al. Influence of climatic factors on the low yields of spring barley and winter wheat in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic) during the 1961–2007 period. Theor Appl Climatol 117, 707–721 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1037-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1037-3