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Potential improvements to statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment streamflows with downscaled precipitation and evaporation

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Abstract

An existing streamflow downscaling model (SDM(original)), was modified with the outputs of a precipitation downscaling model (PDM) and an evaporation downscaling model (EDM) as additional inputs, for improving streamflow projections. For this purpose, lag 0, lag 1 and lag 2 outputs of PDM were individually introduced to SDM(original) as additional inputs, and then it was calibrated and validated. Performances of the resulting modified models were assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) during calibration and validation. It was found that the use of lag 0 precipitation as an additional input to SDM(original) improves NSE in calibration and validation. This modified streamflow downscaling model is called SDM(lag0_preci). Then lag 0, lag 1 and lag 2 evaporation of EDM were individually introduced to SDM(lag0_preci) as additional inputs and it was calibrated and validated. The resulting models showed signs of over-fitting in calibration and under-fitting in validation. Hence, SDM(lag0_preci) was selected as the best model. When SDM(lag0_preci) was run with observed lag 0 precipitation, a large improvement in NSE was seen. This proved that if precipitation produced by the PDM can accurately reproduce the observations, improved precipitation predictions will produce better streamflow predictions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the financial assistance provided by the Australian Research Council Linkage Grant scheme and Grampians Wimmera Mallee Water Corporation for this project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Engineering and Science, Victoria University, Footscray Park Campus, P.O. Box 14428, Melbourne, Victoria, 8001, Australia

    D. A. Sachindra, F. Huang, A. Barton & B. J. C. Perera

  2. Federation University, PO Box 663, Ballarat, Victoria, 3353, Australia

    A. Barton

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  1. D. A. Sachindra
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  2. F. Huang
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  4. B. J. C. Perera
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Correspondence to D. A. Sachindra.

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Sachindra, D.A., Huang, F., Barton, A. et al. Potential improvements to statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment streamflows with downscaled precipitation and evaporation. Theor Appl Climatol 122, 159–179 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1288-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1288-7

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