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Understanding deforestation in the southern Yucatán: insights from a sub-regional, multi-temporal analysis

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Abstract

The southern Yucatán has been identified as a deforestation hot spot. Land-change studies document the extent of forest loss at a regional scale, and case studies provide insights into the drivers of deforestation at the household level. Those studies have paid minimal attention to sub-regional analysis, especially to discrete land-management units above the household level. This analysis of upland forest change addresses the range of variation in deforestation among 96 ejidos (communal lands) and the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the two dominant land-tenure and land-management units in the region. Satellite imagery, census, and land-tenure data are used to establish the extent and location of deforestation patterns, and multivariate techniques are employed to identify biophysical and socioeconomic variables that explain such patterns. Results show that, for the 1984–1993 period, deforestation in the southern Yucatán was not as prevalent as implied by its hot spot designation. Three clusters of deforestation are identified. A logistic regression analysis establishes that size of forest holdings, population growth, and location in the precipitation gradient correlate with ejidos that experienced higher deforestation rates than the rest of the land-tenure units. For the 1993–2000 period, conservation programs and changes in the economic context of this “hollow frontier” contributed to reduce deforestation rates and extent. This analysis illustrates the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of much tropical forest change and caution that it should bring to simple formulations of modeling this change and prescribing policies to control it.

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Notes

  1. The SYPR is a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional project examining land dynamics in the southern Yucatan operating since 1997. The project joins environmental, social, and GIS/remote sensing sciences to address land-use/cover change in its own right as foundational to a series of forest ecology, socioeconomic development, and coupled systems issues (Turner et al. 2004).

  2. The SYPR project’s original study region approximates 22,000 km2. If, however, only those land-management units residing fully within the project’s bounds are considered (Fig. 1), then the area is reduced to 19,000 km2.

  3. The 14 classes and their clusters are as follows: (1) Seasonally Inundated Vegetation and Wetland Forests that include Selva Baja Inundable (regularly inundated low-statured forest) and Tulare and Savannas (variably inundated grasslands and marsh); (2) a Transitional Forest category that includes only one class, Selva Baja (irregularly inundated low-statured forest often on edges of seasonal wetlands); (3) Upland Forests that include Selva Alta and Mediana Perennifolia (high-stature semi-evergreen upland forest), Selva Mediana Subperennifolia (medium-stature semi-evergreen upland forest), and Selva Baja and Mediana Subcaducifolia (medium and low-stature semi-deciduous and deciduous upland forest); and (4) Modified Vegetation that includes the Herbaceous secondary, Shrubby secondary, and Arboreous secondary vegetation and Bracken Fern (an invasive species, Pteridium aquilinum), Crop cultivation (milpa/swidden and chili cultivation), Pasture, and Bare Surfaces. Water bodies were classified as a separate category.

  4. The precipitation gradient emerges as the critical variable because, in part, other biophysical factors could not be treated in terms of their spatial specificity. The vast majority of the upland forests reside on redzina soils (mollisol order). Soil depth is linked to position on the catena and soil moisture, beyond rainfall characteristics, by slope angle and aspect. These micro-factors are considered here to be distributed relatively evenly throughout the region. See Foster and Turner (2004) for biophysical descriptions of the SY.

  5. The ejidos are as follows: Conhuás (34.9 km2), Miguel Alemán (22.4 km2), Nicolás Bravo (20.9 km2), Tres Garantías (20.5 km2), Zoh Laguna (13.4 km2), Nuevo Becal (13.3 km2), Cristobal Colón (12.3 km2), Pablo García (12.0 km2), La Lucha 2 (9.8 km2), 20 de Noviembre (9.8 km2), Santa Rosa (9.1 km2) and Guillermo Prieto (8.0 km2). Miguel Alemán, Nicolás Bravo and Tres Garantías are all in Quintana Roo and have extensive forest. Conhuás and Zoh Laguna belong to Campeche and they also enjoy large forestry extensions.

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Acknowledgments

This paper is the product of the Southern Yucatán Peninsular Region (SYPR) project involving Clark University, University of Virginia, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, and Harvard University. Core funding for the SYPR project from 1997 to 2009 was provided by NASA’s LCLUC program (NAG 56046, 511134, 06GD98G) and NSF’s BCS program (0410016). The project is indebted to assistance provided by our host institution in Mexico, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, especially Unidad Chetumal. My deepest thanks to Birgit Schmook from ECOSUR for her valuable insight and assistance in the field, as well as her comments to this manuscript, to Natalia Alfonso who provided insights on the statistical methods, to Santiago Silva for helping me improve the graph, and to B. L. Turner II, John Rogan, Oliver Coomes, and Sam Ratick who read this manuscript, provided comments, and suggested clarifications throughout.

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    Ximena Rueda

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Rueda, X. Understanding deforestation in the southern Yucatán: insights from a sub-regional, multi-temporal analysis. Reg Environ Change 10, 175–189 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0115-7

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