Abstract
The Mediterranean region is expected to be a hotspot for climate change, making the resilience of farming systems a major challenge. Some studies have used quantitative models at the farm scale to analyze the resilience of farming systems but with little involvement of stakeholders. We used a participatory approach with local actors on the Saïs plain of Morocco to design possible future states and qualitatively assess the resilience of typical farm types (FTs) experiencing major change. Our approach combined individual interviews of farmers and local actors, mainly public, with participatory collective meetings to identify representative FTs and their performance, project their evolutions and future performance in the face of change, and evaluate their resilience. Performance, defined according to literature, interviews and meetings, included different types of capital, income, yields, markets, support of public policies, and water access. Four FTs were considered: highly irrigated horticulture (FT1), rainfed cereals (FT2), partly irrigated cereal-legumes (FT3), and mostly irrigated fruit-tree/horticulture (FT4). The primary driver for FT2 and FT3 was climate change; for FT1 and FT4, it was limiting access to water resources. Participants designed more diversified systems for all FTs in relation to those changes. Rankings of FT performance did not change between current and future states. Performance did not evolve significantly, but FT4 was seen as the most resilient and FT2 the least. These qualitative results differ somewhat from other studies mobilizing quantitative approaches, but they highlight the potential of local adaptation to limit the impacts of global change on vulnerable agriculture.
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Acknowledgements
This study was carried out within the SEMI-ARID project (ARIMNET2 research program) founded by the French Agency of Research (ANR) and MESRSFC (Morocco). We thank all farmers and actors who kindly participated in this study.
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Highlights
• A participatory approach was used to study farm resilience after a shock.
• Shocks differed according to farm type, but were all related to water.
• Mental models were used with local actors to design future farming systems.
• Performance was assessed according to eight complementary indicators.
• According to local actors, all farm types would adapt, suggesting a good resilience.
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Hossard, L., Fadlaoui, A., Ricote, E. et al. Assessing the resilience of farming systems on the Saïs plain, Morocco. Reg Environ Change 21, 36 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01764-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01764-4