Abstract
Control or eradication of invasive species is costly in terms of finances, labour and ecological and economic impact; the decision of how best to affect eradication or control may have long-term implications and costs. We suggest using population viability analysis (PVA) as a tool to evaluate relative efficacy of different control options for invasive species. PVA explicitly accounts for stochastic events impacting survival of populations at low abundance, which is critically important for representing founder effects of invasive species and appropriately calculating relative eradication probabilities. We demonstrate how PVA may be used to compare control options for hypothetical invasive populations of smallmouth bass, zebra mussels and northern pike. The model is parameterized using readily available parameters from the literature and provides a time series of population projections with uncertainty, as well as outcomes such as total control cost, probability of eradication and final abundance. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the ranking of various control options may change with parameter misspecification, demonstrating the importance of evaluate sensitivity prior to a final decision. When considering the appropriate response to invasive species, there is a trade-off between acting quickly and carefully considering all options using best available knowledge. PVA provides a balance between these two choices by providing a means to compare all control options and perspective values collaboratively with agencies and stakeholders in a way that quickly builds consensus for the most appropriate option(s) and facilitates action.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allendorf FW, Lundquist LL (2003) Introduction: population biology, evoluation, and control of invasive species. Conserv Biol 17:24–30
Amec Foster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure (2017) Northern pike suppression in the Columbia River system. Amec Foster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure, Nelson
Bair LS, Yackulic CB, Springborn CB et al (2018) Identifying cost-effective invasive species control to enhance endangered species populations in the Grand Canyon. Biol Conserv 220:12–20
Baxter JTA, Doutaz DJ (2017) Lower Columbia River invasive northern pike suppression—2016 update. Trail, BC
Beamesderfer RCP, North JA (1995) Growth, natural mortality, and predicted response to fishing for largemouth bass and smallmouth bass populations in North America. N Am J Fish Manag 15:688–704
Beissinger SR (2002) Population viability analysis: past, present, future. In: Beissinger SR, McCullough DR (eds) Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 5–17
Benke KK, Steel JL, Weiss JE (2011) Risk assessment models for invasive species: uncertainty in rankings from multi-criteria analysis. Biol Invasions 13:239–253
Bodamer BL, Bossenbroek JM (2008) Wetlands as barriers: effects of vegetated waterways on downstream dispersal of zebra mussels. Freshw Biol 53:2051–2060
Buhle ER, Margolis M, Ruesink JL (2005) Bang for buck: cost-effective control of invasive species with different life histories. Ecol Econ 52:355–366
Carey MP, Sanderson BL, Friesen TA et al (2011) Smallmouth bass in the Pacific Northwest: a threat to native species; a benefit for anglers. Rev Fish Sci 19:305–315
Caughley G (1994) Directions in conservation biology. J Anim Ecol 63:215–244
Chu C (2001) Population of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in response to habitat supply. University of Toronto, Toronto
Clady MD (1974) Food habits of yellow perch, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass in two unproductive lakes in northern Michigan. Am Midl Nat 91:453–459
Coggins LGJ, Yard MD, Pine WEI (2011) Nonnative fish control in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona: an effective program or serendipitous timing? Trans Am Fish Soc 140:456–470
Conides A, Koussouris T, Gritzalis K, Bertahas I (1995) Zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha: population dynamics and notes on control strategies in a reservoir in western Greece. Lake Reserv Manag 11:329–336
Coulson T, Mace GM, Hudson E, Possingham H (2001) The use and abuse of population viability analysis. Trends Ecol Evol 16:219–221
Crooks JA, Soule ME (1999) Lag times in population explosions of invasive species: causes and implications. In: Sandlund OT, Schei PJ, Viken A (eds) Invasive species and biodiversity management. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Kordrecht, pp 103–125
Davis M, McCarthy C, Beazley K (2017) A risk assessment for the introduction of invasive fish for Kejimkujik National Park and National Historic Site, Canada. Mar Freshw Res 68:1292–1307
Egan SP, Barnes MA, Hwang C-T et al (2013) Rapid invasive species detection by combining environmental DNA with light transmission spectroscopy. Conserv Lett 6:402–409
Estevez RA, Anderson CB, Pizarro JC, Burgman MA (2014) Clarifying values, risk perceptions, and attitudes to resolve or avoid social conflicts in invasive species management. Conserv Biol 29:19–30
Giles N, Wright RM, Nord ME (1986) Cannibalism in pike fry, Esox luciux L.: some experiments with fry densities. J Fish Biol 29:107–113
Govindarajulu P, Altwegg R, Anholt BR (2005) Matrix model investigation of invasive species control: bullfrogs on Vancouver Island. Ecol Appl 15:2161–2170
Griffiths RW, Schloesser DW, Leach JH, Kovalak WP (1991) Distribution and dispersal of zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in the Great Lakes region. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 48:1381–1388
Hebert PDN, Muncaster BW, Mackie GL (1989) Ecological and genetic studies on Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas): a new mollusc in the Great Lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 48:1381–1388
Hoenig JM (1983) Empirical use of longevity data to estimate mortality rates. Fish Bull 82:898–903. https://doi.org/10.2307/1940001
Johnson LE, Padilla DK (1996) Geographic spread of exotic species: ecological lessons and opportunities from the invasion of the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha. Biol Conserv 78:23–33
Jones TS (1990) Floodplain distribution of fishes in the Bitterroot River, with emphasis on introduced populations of northern pike. University of Montana, Missoula
Kiker GA, Bridges TS, Varghese A et al (2005) Application of multicriteria decision analysis in environmental decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 1:95–108
Kolar CS, Lodge DM (2002) Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 298:1233–1236
Kowarik I (1995) Time lags in biological invasions with regard to the success and failure of alien species. In: Pysek P, Prach K, Rejmanek M, Wade M (eds) Plant invasions: general aspects and special problems. SPB Academic Publishing, Amsterdam, pp 15–38
Lee C, King L (2015) Evaluation of northern pike (Esox lucius) in upper Lake Roosevelt and the lower Kettle River, Washington
Leung B, Lodge DM, Finnoff D et al (2002) An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species. Proc R Soc B 269:2407–2413
Litvak MK, Mandrak NE (1993) Ecology of freshwater baitfish use in Canada and the United States. Fisheries 18:6–13
Loppnow GL, Vascotto K, Venturelli PA (2013) Invasion of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu): history, impacts, and control. Manag Biol Invasions 4:191–206
Lorenzen K (2000) Allometry of natural mortality as a basis for assessing optimal release size in fish-stocking programmes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 57:2374–2381
Mack RN, Simberloff D, Lonsdale WM et al (2000) Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol Appl 10:689–710
Mackie GL (1993) Biology of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) and observations of mussel colonization on unionid bivalves in Lake St. Clair of the Great Lakes. In: Nalepa TF, Schloesser DW (eds) Zebra mussels: biology, impact and control. CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp 153–165
Maguire LA (2004) What can decision analysis do for invasive species management? Risk Anal 24:859–868
Manchester SJ, Bullock JM (2000) The impacts of non-native species on UK biodiversity and the effectiveness of control. J Appl Ecol 37:845–864
McMahon TE, Bennett DH (1996) Walleye and northern pike: boost or bane to northwest fisheries? Fisheries 21:6–13
McPhail JD (2007) The freshwater fishes of British Columbia. University of Alberta Press, Edmonton
Messing RH, Wright MG (2006) Biological control of invasive species: solution or pollution. Front Ecol Environ 4:132–140
Miehls ALJ, Mason DM, Frank KA et al (2009) Invasive species impacts on ecosystem structure and function: a comparison of Oneida Lake, New York, USA, before and after zebra mussel invasion. Ecol Model 220:3194–3209
Millar RB, Kennedy WA (1948) Pike (Esox lucius) from four Northern Canadian lakes. J Fish Res Board Canada 7:190–199
Miller SJ, Haynes JM (1997) Factors limiting colonization of western New York creeks by the Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). J Freshw Ecol 12:81–88
Muhlfeld CC, Bennett DH, Steinhorst RK et al (2008) Using bioenergetics modeling to estimate consumption of native juvenile salmonids by nonnative northern pike in the upper Flathead River system, Montana. N Am J Fish Manag 28:636–648
Myers RA, Bowen KG, Barrowman NJ (1999) Maximum reproductive rate of fish at low population sizes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56:2404–2419
Nalepa TF, Wojcik JA, Fanslow DL, Lang GA (1995) Initial colonization of the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron: population recruitment, density and size structure. J Gt Lakes Res 21:417–434
Norman JD, Whitledge GW (2015) Recruitment sources of invasive Bighead carp (Hypopthalmichthys nobilis) and Silver carp (H. molitrix) inhabiting the Illinois River. Biol Invasions 17:2999–3014
Parker JD, Torchin ME, Hufbauer RA et al (2013) Do invasive species perform better in their new ranges? Ecology 94:985–994
Peterman RM, Anderson JL (1999) Decision analysis: a method for taking uncertainties into account in risk-based decision making. Hum Ecol Risk Assess Int J 5:231–244
Pierce RB, Tomcko CM, Margenau TL (2003) Density dependence in growth and size structure of northern pike populations. N Am J Fish Manag 23:331–339
Pimentel D, Zuniga R, Morrison D (2005) Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States. Ecol Econ 52:273–288
Pine WEI, Healy B, Smith EO et al (2013) An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon. N Am J Fish Manag 33:626–641
R Core Development Team (2016) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna. https://www.R-project.org/. Accessed 12 May 2016
Reed JM, Mills LS, Dunning JBJ et al (2002) Emerging issues in population viability analysis. Conserv Biol 16:7–19
Rich BA (1993) Population dynamics, food habits, movement and habitat use of northern pike in the Coeur d’Alene River system. University of Idaho, Moscow
Rinella MJ, Maxwell BD, Fay PK et al (2009) Control effort exacerbates invasive-species problem. Ecol Appl 19:155–162
Roberts L (1990) Zebra mussel invasion threatens U.S. waters. Science 249:1370
Schoenebeck CW, Hansen MJ (2005) Electrofishing catchability of walleyes, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass, northern pike, and muskellunge in Wisconsin lakes. N Am J Fish Manag 25:1341–1352. https://doi.org/10.1577/M04-125.1
Scott WB, Crossman EJ (1998) Freshwater fishes of Canada. Galt House Publications Ltd, Oakville
Shuter BJ, Matuszek JE, Regier HA (1987) Optimal use of creel survey data in assessing population behaviour: Lake Opeongo lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui), 1936–83. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 44(Suppl2):29–238
Simberloff D (2003) How much information on population biology is needed to manage introduced species? Conserv Biol 17:83–92
Stohlgren TJ, Schnase JL (2006) Risk analysis for biological hazards: what we need to know about invasive species. Risk Anal 26:163–173
Strayer DL (2009) Twenty years of zebra mussels: lessons from the mollusk that made headlines. Front Ecol Environ 7:135–141
Strayer DL, Malcolm HM (2006) Long-term demography of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population. Freshw Biol 51:117–130
Thompson GG (1994) Confounding of gear selectivity and the natural mortality rate in cases where the former is a nonmonotone function of age. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 51:2654–2664
Tyus HM, Saunders JFI (2000) Nonnative fish control and endangered fish recovery: lessons from the Colorado River. Fisheries 25:17–24
United States Geological Survey (2017) Nonindigenous aquatic species. https://nas.er.usgs.gov/queries/FactSheet.aspx?speciesID=5. Accessed 15 Dec 2017
Vander Zanden MJ, Hansen GJA, Niggins SN, Kornis MS (2010) A pound of prevention, plus a pound of cure: early detection and eradication of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. J Gt Lakes Res 36:199–205
Walters CJ (1986) Adaptive management of renewable resources. The Blackburn Press, Caldwell
Walters C, Korman J (1999) Linking recruitment to trophic factors: revisiting the Beverton–Holt recruitment model from a life history and multispecies perspective. Rev Fish Biol Fish 9:187–202
Walters C, Martell S (2004) Fisheries ecology and management. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Zipkin EF, Sullivan PJ, Cooch EG et al (2008) Overcompensatory response of a smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) population to harvest: release from competition? Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:2279–2292
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Article Impact Statement: We present population viability analysis to accurately compare control options for invasive species in a decision-friendly framework.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
van Poorten, B.T., Beck, M. & Herborg, LM. Turning population viability analysis on its head: using stochastic models to evaluate invasive species control strategies. Biol Invasions 21, 1197–1213 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1890-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1890-1