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Dynamics and predicted distribution of an irrupting ‘sleeper’ population: fallow deer in Tasmania

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Abstract

Sleeper populations of non-native species can remain at low abundance for decades before irrupting. For over a century, fallow deer (Dama dama) in the island state of Tasmania, Australia, remained at low abundance and close to the region in which they were released. Recently, there are indications the population has increased in abundance and distribution. Here, we spatially quantify the population change using a time series of annual spotlight counts from 1985 to 2019 (up to 172 transects annually, totalling of 5756 transect counts). Next, we predict the potential for further range expansion, using global occurrences to characterise the species’ climatic niche, and remote-camera surveys (3225 camera sites) to model fine-grained habitat suitability. Spotlight counts of fallow deer increased by 11.5% annually, resulting in a 40-fold increase from 1985 to 2019. The core distribution increased 2.9-fold during this 35-year period, and now spans c. 27% of Tasmania’s land area. Satellite populations have established in locations where farmed deer have escaped or been released, suggesting that humans have facilitated range expansion via new introduction events. Based on climate and habitat suitability, our models predict that 56% of Tasmania is suitable under the current climate. This suggests range expansion is likely to continue unless the population is actively managed, which could include the eradication of satellite populations and containment of core populations. This case study cautions that despite over a century of slow population growth, sleeper populations of non-native species can abruptly increase.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the Palawa peoples of lutruwita, the traditional custodians of the lands on which this work was completed. We thank the Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and the Environment for providing the long-term spotlighting data. We thank many accommodating landholders for greatly facilitating land access.

Funding

Australian Research Council Linkage Grant LP170100301; NSW Department of Primary Industries for DF’s time.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia

    Calum X. Cunningham, David M. J. S. Bowman, Barry W. Brook, Jessie C. Buettel, Ben J. French, Rowena Hamer, Riana Gardiner, Kirstin Proft, Vincent P. Scoleri, Antje Chiu-Werner, Toby Travers, Liam Thompson, Tom Guy & Christopher N. Johnson

  2. School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand

    George L. W. Perry

  3. Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, NSW Department of Primary Industries, 1447 Forest Road, Orange, NSW, 2800, Australia

    David M. Forsyth

  4. Natural Values Science Section Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, PO Box 44, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia

    Michael M. Driessen

  5. Bush Heritage Australia, Finders Lane, PO Box 329, Melbourne, VIC, 8009, Australia

    Matt Appleby

  6. ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Campbelltown, Australia

    Barry W. Brook, Jessie C. Buettel & Christopher N. Johnson

  7. Game Services Tasmania, Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, PO Box 44, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia

    Greg Hocking

  8. Tasmanian Land Conservancy, 827 Sandy Bay Road, Sandy Bay, TAS, 7005, Australia

    Rowena Hamer, Sally L. Bryant & Matt Taylor

  9. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia

    Toby Travers

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  1. Calum X. Cunningham
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Cunningham, C.X., Perry, G.L.W., Bowman, D.M.J.S. et al. Dynamics and predicted distribution of an irrupting ‘sleeper’ population: fallow deer in Tasmania. Biol Invasions 24, 1131–1147 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-021-02703-4

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