Abstract
This paper evaluates the influence that climate change could exert on electricity demand patterns in Spain conditioned on the level of warming, with special attention to the seasonal occurrence of extreme demand days. For this purpose, assuming the currently observed electricity demand–temperature relationship holds in the future, we have generated daily time series of pseudo-electricity demand for the recent past and the twenty-first century by using simulated temperatures from statistical downscaling of global climate model experiments. We show that both the frequency and severity of extreme electricity demand days at the national level are expected to increase, even for low levels of regional warming. Moreover, the occurrence of these extremes will experience a seasonal shift from winter to summer due to the projected temperature increases in both seasons. Under a RCP8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, the extended summer season (June–September) will concentrate more than 50% of extreme electricity demand days by the mid-century, increasing to 90% before the end of the century. These changes in electricity demand have considerable spatial heterogeneity over the country, with northwestern Spain experiencing the seasonal shift later than the rest of the country, due to the relatively mild summer temperatures and lower projected warming there.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and material
Not applicable.
Code availability
Available upon request.
References
American Meteorological Society (2021) Degree-day. Glossary of Meteorology. https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Degree-day
Apadula F, Bassini A, Elli A, Scapin S (2012) Relationships between meteorological variables and monthly electricity demand. Appl Energy 98:346–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.03.053
Arens EA, Williams PB (1977) The effect of wind on energy consumption in buildings. Energ Buildings 1:77–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-7788(77)90014-7
Auffhammer M, Baylis P, Hausman CH (2017) Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114:1886–1891. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114
Auffhammer M, Mansur ET (2014) Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: a review of the empirical literature. Energy Econ 46:522–530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.017
Bartos MD, Chester MV, Johnson N et al (2016) Impacts of climate change on electric transmission capacity and peak electricity load in the United States. Environ Res Lett 11:114008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008
Bertoldi P, Atanasiu B (2007) Electricity consumption and efficiency trends in European Union
Bessec M, Fouquau J (2008) The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: a threshold panel approach. Energy Econ 30:2705–2721. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.02.003
Blázquez L, Boogen N, Filippini M (2013) Residential electricity demand in Spain: new empirical evidence using aggregate data. Energy Econ 36:648–657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.010
Bloomfield HC, Brayshaw DJ, Troccoli A et al (2021) Quantifying the sensitivity of European power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections. Renew Energy 164:1062–1075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125
Bloomfield HC, Suitters CC, Drew DR (2020) Meteorological drivers of European power system stress. J Renew Energy 2020:5481010. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/5481010
Cassarino TG, Sharp E, Barrett M (2018) The impact of social and weather drivers on the historical electricity demand in Europe. Appl Energy 229:176–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.108
Cattiaux J, Douville H, Peings Y (2013) European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties. Clim Dyn 41:2889–2907. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y
CORES (2018) Informe Estadístico Anual 2018. https://www.cores.es/sites/default/files/archivos/publicaciones/informe-estadistico-anual-2018.pdf. Accessed 9 February 2021
Cronin J, Anandarajah G, Dessens O (2018) Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps. Clim Chang 151:79–93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2265-4
Damm A, Köberl J, Prettenthaler F et al (2017) Impacts of +2 °C global warming on electricity demand in Europe. Clim Serv 7:12–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.07.001
Davis LW, Gertler PJ (2015) Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:5962–5967. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423558112
De Felice M, Alessandri A, Ruti PM (2013) Electricity demand forecasting over Italy: potential benefits using numerical weather prediction models. Electr Power Syst Res 104:71–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2013.06.004
Doukas H, Karakosta C, Flamos A, Psarras J (2011) Electric power transmission: an overview of associated burdens. Int J Energy Res 35:979–988. https://doi.org/10.1002/er.1745
Edenhofer O., Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, et al (2014) Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA
European Union Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility (2017) Energy and Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries. http://www.euei-pdf.org/sites/default/files/field_publication_file/euei_pdf_2017_energy_and_climate_change_adaptation_in_developing_countries.pdf. Accessed 9 February 2021
Fernández Boneta M, Sebi C (2012) The challenges, dynamics and activities in the building sector and its energy demand in Spain (D2.1 of WP2 from Entranze Project). https://www.entranze.eu/files/downloads/D2_1/D2_1_Short_country_summary_report_-final-Spain.pdf. Accessed 9 February 2021
Garrido-Perez JM, Ordóñez C, Barriopedro D et al (2020) Impact of weather regimes on wind power variability in Western Europe. Appl Energy 264:114731. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114731
Giannakopoulos C, Psiloglou B (2006) Trends in energy load demand for Athens, Greece: weather and on-weather related factors. Clim Res 31:97–108
Gómez-Calvet R, Martínez-Duart JM, Serrano Calle S (2018) Present state and perspectives of variable renewable energies in Spain. Eur Phys J Plus 133. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/i2018-11960-9
Hadley SW, Erickson DJ, Hernandez JL et al (2006) Responses of energy use to climate change: a climate modeling study. Geophys Res Lett 33:2–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026652
Henley A, Peirson J (1997) Non-linearities in electricity demand and temperature: parametric versus non-parametric methods. Oxf Bull Econ Stat 59:149–162. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00054
Herrera S, Fernández J, Gutiérrez JM (2016) Update of the Spain02 gridded observational dataset for EURO-CORDEX evaluation: assessing the effect of the interpolation methodology. Int J Climatol 36:900–908. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4391
Hor CL, Watson SJ, Majithia S (2005) Analyzing the impact of weather variables on analyzing the impact of weather variables on monthly electricity demand. IEEE Trans Power Syst 4:2078–2085. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2005.857397
IDAE (2011) SECH project -SPAHOUSEC. Analyses of the energy consumption of the household sector in Spain. Final report pp 48. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cros/system/files/SECH_Spain.pdf Accessed 9 February 2021
Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B et al (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
Jakubcionis M, Carlsson J (2017) Estimation of European Union residential sector space cooling potential. Energy Policy 101:225–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.11.047
Johnsen TA (2001) Demand, generation and price in the Norwegian market for electric power. Energy Econ 23:227–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(00)00052-9
Kotlarski S, Szabó P, Herrera S et al (2017) Observational uncertainty and regional climate model evaluation: a pan-European perspective. Int J Climatol 39:3730–3749. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5249
Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C et al (2006) World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Zeitschrift 15:259–263. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130
Lam JC, Tang HL, Li DHW (2008) Seasonal variations in residential and commercial sector electricity consumption in Hong Kong. Energy 33:513–523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2007.10.002
Lee SH, Kang JE, Park CS et al (2020) Multi-risk assessment of heat waves under intensifying climate change using Bayesian Networks. Int J Disast Risk Re 50:101704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101704
Maia-Silva D, Kumar R, Nateghi R (2020) The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States. Nat Commun 11:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8
McFarland J, Zhou Y, Clarke L et al (2015) Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison. Clim Chang 131:111–125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8
Mideksa TK, Kallbekken S (2010) The impact of climate change on the electricity market: a review. Energy Policy 38:3579–3585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.035
Mirasgedis S, Sarafidis Y, Georgopoulou E et al (2006) Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences. Energy 31:208–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2005.02.016
Pardo A, Meneu V, Valor E (2002) Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load. Energy Econ 24:55–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(01)00082-2
Petisco de Lara (2008) Método de regionalización de temperaturas basado en análogos. Explicación y validación. http://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/idi/clima/escenarios_CC/Metodo_regionalizacion_temperatura.pdf. Accessed 9 February 2021
PNIEC (2021) Propuesta de desarrollo de la RDT de Energía Eléctrica. Período 2021-2026. https://energia.gob.es/es-es/Participacion/Paginas/DetalleParticipacionPublica.aspx?k=391 Accessed 9 February 2021
Psiloglou BE, Giannakopoulos C, Majithia S, Petrakis M (2009) Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: a comparative assessment. Energy 34:1855–1863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.033
REE (2018) Las energías renovables en el sistema eléctrico español. https://www.ree.es/sites/default/files/11_PUBLICACIONES/Documentos/Renovables-2018.pdf. Accessed 9 February 2021
REE (2019) Demanda eléctrica y actividad económica: ¿Cambio de paradigma? https://www.ree.es/sites/default/files/downloadable/demanda-electrica-actividad-economica_0.pdf Accessed 9 February 2021
Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V et al (2011) RCP 8.5-a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109:33–57. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y
Rose SK, Richels R, Blanford G, Rutherford T (2017) The Paris Agreement and next steps in limiting global warming. Clim Chang 142:255–270. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1935-y
Sailor DJ, Muñoz JR (1997) Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A. - methodology and results for eight states. Energy 22:987–998. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(97)00034-0
Schleussner CF, Rogelj J, Schaeffer M et al (2016) Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nat Clim Chang 6:827–835. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3096
Shi Y, Zhang DF, Xu Y et al (2018) Changes of heating and cooling degree days over China in response to global warming of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C. Adv Clim Chang Res 9:192–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.06.003
Slini T, Giama E, Papadopoulos AM (2014) The impact of economic recession on domestic energy consumption. J Renew Sustain Ener 34:259–270. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2014.882335
Spinoni J, Vogt JV, Barbosa P et al (2018) Changes of heating and cooling degree-days in Europe from 1981 to 2100. Int J Climatol 38:e191–e208. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5362
Strengers Y (2012) Peak electricity demand and social practice theories: reframing the role of change agents in the energy sector. Energy Policy 44:226–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.046
Suganthi L, Samuel AA (2012) Energy models for demand forecasting - a review. Renew Sust Energ Rev 16:1223–1240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2011.08.014
Thornton HE, Hoskins BJ, Scaife AA (2016) The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain. Environ Res Lett 11:1–25. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114015
Trotter IM, Bolkesjø TF, Féres JG, Hollanda L (2016) Climate change and electricity demand in Brazil: a stochastic approach. Energy 102:596–604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.02.120
Valor E, Meneu V, Caselles V (2001) Daily air temperature and electricity load in Spain. J Appl Meteorol 40:1413–1421. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1413:DATAEL>2.0.CO;2
Wenz L, Levermann A, Auffhammer M (2017) North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114:E7910–E7918. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704339114
Wilks DS (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Third. Academic Press, Oxford
Acknowledgments
We thank the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and Red Eléctrica de España (REE) for providing temperature and electricity demand data, respectively. The authors are also grateful to the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and the modelling groups for producing and making available their model outputs. The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their useful comments.
Funding
This study was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte [grant number FPU16/01972]; the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad [grant number RYC-2014-15036] and the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad [grant number CGL2017-83198-R].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by J.M.G.P. The first draft of the manuscript was written by J.M.G.P. and D.B. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. The funding acquisition was obtained by C.O. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
ESM 1
(DOCX 2144 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Garrido-Perez, J.M., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R. et al. Impact of climate change on Spanish electricity demand. Climatic Change 165, 50 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03086-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03086-0