Abstract
In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100. More precisely, we analyze a steady-state situation where m coalitions exist and behave as m players in a game of supplying emission rights on an international emission trading system. The quotas supplied by a coalition must correspond to the amount of CO2 captured through CDR activities in the corresponding world region. We use an extension of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3 to calibrate the payoff functions and compute an equilibrium solution in the noncooperative game.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Actually, several world regions (for instance Canada, or the European Union through its European Green Deal) are aiming to reach carbon neutrality as early as 2050.
See the APS report [48].
We distinguish Qatar and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as this study is part of a research project supported by the Qatar National Research Fund.
Male and female population aged from 20 to 64.
Emissions from energy combustion.
References
Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., Meinshausen, M., & Meinshausen, N. (2009). Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458, 1163–1166.
Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Larson, E., & Möllersten, K. (2006). Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass – costs and potential role in stabilizing the atmosphere. Climatic Change, 74, 47–79.
Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Obersteiner, M., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, K.M., Möllersten, K., & Larson, E.D. (2010). The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Climatic Change, 100 (1), 195–202.
Babonneau, F., Badran, A., Benlahrech, M., Haurie, A., Schenckery, M., & Vielle, M. (2020). Economic assessment of the possible role of CDR technologies in long-term climate strategies for GCC countries. IAEE 2020 Paris.
Babonneau, F., Bernard, A., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2018). Meta-modeling to assess the possible future of Paris Agreement. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 23(6), 611–626.
Babonneau, F., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2016). Assessment of balanced burden-sharing in the 2050 EU climate/energy roadmap: a metamodeling approach. Climatic Change, 134(4), 505–519.
Babonneau, F., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2016). A robust noncooperative meta-game for climate negotiation in europe. Advances in dynamic and evolutionary games, volume 14 of the series annals of the international society of dynamic games, 301–319.
Babonneau, F., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2018). From COP21 pledges to a fair 2°C pathway. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 7(2), 69–92.
Babonneau, F., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2018). Welfare implications of eu effort sharing decision and possible impact of a hard brexit. Energy Economics, 74, 470–489.
Bahn, O., & Haurie, A. (2016). A cost-effectiveness differential game model for climate agreements. Dynamic Games and Applications, 6(1), 1–19.
Bahn, O., & Haurie, A. (2019). A steady-state game of zero-emission climate regime. In Pineau, P.-O., Sigué, S., & Taboubi, S. (Eds.) Games in management sciences, volume essays in honor of Georges Zaccour of international series in operations research & management science (pp. 115–130): Springer.
Bartsch, U., & Müller, B. (2000). Fossil fuels in a changing climate – impacts of the kyoto protocol and developing country participation. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Bernard, A., & Vielle, M. (2003). Measuring the welfare cost of climate change policies: a comparative assessment based on the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-e3. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 8(3), 199–217.
Bernard, A., & Vielle, M. (2008). GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international national interactions between economy, energy and the environment. Computational Management Science, 5(3), 173–206.
Chen, C., & Tavoni, M. (2013). Direct air capture of CO2 and climate stabilization: a model based assessment. Climatic Change, 118, 59–72.
Doelman, J.C., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D.P., Tabeau, A., Hof, A.F., Braakhekke, M.C., Gernaat, D.E., van den Berg, M., van Zeist, W.-J., Daioglou, V., van Meijl, H., & Lucas, P.L. (2020). Afforestation for climate change mitigation: potentials, risks and trade-offs. Global Change Biology.
EASAC. (2018). Negative emission technologies: what role in meeting Paris Agreement targets? Technical report, EASAC, Secretariat Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina German National Academy of Sciences Jägerberg 1 D-06108 Halle (Saale).
Favero, A., Sohngen, B., Huang, Y., & Jin, Y. (2018). Global cost estimates of forest climate mitigation with albedo: a new integrative policy approach. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 125002.
Ferris, M.C., & Munson, T.S. (2000). Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 24, 165–188.
Fuss, S., Lamb, W.F., Callaghan, M.W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Luderer, G., Nemet, G.F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente, J.L., Wilcox, J., del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M., & Minx, J.C. (2018). Negative emissions – part 2: costs, potentials and side effects. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 063002.
Hallegatte, S., Rogelj, J., Allen, M., Clarke, L., Edenhofer, O., Field, C.B., Friedlingstein, P., van Kesteren, L., Knutti, R., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M., Michel, A., Minx, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plattner, G.-K., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, M., Stocker, T.F., & van Vuuren, D.P. (2016). Mapping the climate change challenge. Nature Climate Change, 6(7), 663–668.
Haurie, A., Babonneau, F., Edwards, N., Holden, P., Kanudia, A., Labriet, M., Leimbach, M., Pizzileo, B., & Vielle, M. (2014) In Bernard, L., & Semmler, W. (Eds.), Fairness in climate negotiations : a meta-game analysis based on community integrated assessment. Oxford: Oxford Handbook on the Macroeconomics of Global Warming. Oxford University Press.
Helm, C. (2003). International emissions trading with endogenous allowance choices. Journal of Public Economics, 87, 2737–2747.
House, K.Z., Baclig, A.C., Ranjan, M., Nierop, E.A., Wilcoxx, J., & Herzog, H.J. (2011). Economic and energetic analysis of capturing CO2 from ambient air. PNAS Early Edition, 1–6.
IEA. Energy technology perspective 2015. Technical report, IEA (2015).
International Energy Agency. Potential for biomass and carbon dioxide capture and storage (2011).
International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2019. (2019).
Kearns, J., Teletzke, G., Palmer, J., Thomann, H., Kheshgi, H., Chen, H., Paltsev, S., & Herzog, H. (2017). Developing a consistent database for regional geologic CO2 storage capacity worldwide. Energy Procedia, 114, 4697–4709.
Keith, D.W., Holmes, G., Angelo, D. S. t., & Heidel, K. (2018). A process for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere. Joule, 2, 1573–1594.
Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedlacek, J., & Fischer, E.M. (2016). A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target. Nature Geoscience, 9(1), 13–18.
Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., Reuster, L., Luderer, G., & Klein, D. (2013). Is atmospheric carbon dioxyde removal a game changer for climate change mitigation? Climatic Change, 118, 45–57.
Marcucci, A., Panos, V., & Kypreos, S. (2017). The road to achieving the long-term Paris targets: energy transition and the role of direct air capture. Climatic Change.
Mathesius, S., Hofmann, M., Caldeira, K., & Schellnhuber, H.-J. (2015). Long-term response of oceans to CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Nature Climate Change, 5(12), 1107–1113.
Meadowcroft, J. (2013). Exploring negative territory carbon dioxide removal and climate policy initiatives. Climatic Change, 118(1), 137–149.
Minx, J.C., Lamb, W.F., Callaghan, M.W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G.F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente, J.L.V., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M. (2018). Negative emissions—part 1: research landscape and synthesis. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6), 063001.
Muratori, M., Bauer, N., Rose, S.K., Wise, M., Daioglou, V., Cui, Y., Kato, E., Gidden, M., Strefler, J., Fujimori, S., Sands, R.D., van Vuuren, D.P., & Weyant, J. (2020). EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02784-5.
Narayanan, B.G., Aguiar, A., & McDougall, R. (Eds.). (2015). Global trade, assistance and production: the GTAP 9 data base. West Lafayette: Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
Paltsev, S., Sokolov, A., Gao, X., & Haigh, M. (2018). Meeting the goals of the Paris agreement: temperature implications of the Shell Sky scenario. Technical Report 330, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
Realmonte, G., Drouet, L., Gambhir, A., Glynn, J., Hawkes, A., Köberle, A.C., & Tavoni, M. (2020). An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways. Nature Communication, 3277.
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B.C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J.C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Aleluia Da Silva, L., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J.C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., & Tavoni, M. (2017). The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168.
Ricci, O. , & Selosse. S. (2013). Global and regional potential for bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage. Energy Policy, 52, 689–698. Special Section: Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy.
Rogelj, J., Huppmann, D., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Clarke, L., Gidden, M., Nicholls, Z., & Meinshausen, M. (2019). A new scenario logic for the paris agreement long-term temperature goa. Nature, 573, 357–363.
Rogelj, J., Shindell, D., Jianga, K., Fifita, S., Forster, P., Ginzburg, V., Handa, C., Kheshgi, H., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Mundaca, L., & Séférian, R. (2018). Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty chapter Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development.
Selosse, S., & Ricci, O. (2014). Achieving negative emissions with BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in the power sector: New insights from the TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model France) model. Energy, 76, 967–975.
Shell-Corp. (2016). A better life with a healthy planet: pathways to net-zero emissions. Technical report, Royal Dutch Shell.
Shell-Corp. (2018). Shell scenarios sky: Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. Technical report, Royal Dutch Shell.
Smith, P., Bustamante, M., Ahammad, H., Clark, H., Dong, H., Elsiddig, E.A., Haberl, H., Harper, R., House, J., Jafari, M., Masera, O., Mbow, C., Ravindranath, N.H., Rice, C.W., Robledo Abad, C., Romanovskaya, A., Sperling, F., & Tubiello, F. (2014). Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, chapter agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
The American Physical Society. (2011). Direct air capture of CO2 with chemicals: a technology assessment for the APS panel on public affairs.
Strefler, J., Bauer, N., Kriegler, E., Popp, A., Giannousakis, A., & Edenhofer, O. (2018). Between scylla and charybdis: delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 044015.
Tavoni, M., & Socolow, R. (2013). Modeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions. Climatic Change, 118(1), 1–14.
United Nations. (2017). World population prospects: the 2017 revision. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Vinca, A., Rottoli, M., Marangoni, G., & Tavoni, M. (2018). The role of carbon capture and storage electricity in attaining 1.5 and 2°C. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 78, 148–159.
Acknowledgments
We thank several researchers who kindly provided additional data from their original papers. This help is much appreciated; in particular, we thank Alice Favero who provided the marginal costs of forest mitigation published in [18] and Adriana Marcucci who gave the CO2 sequestered by DACCS in [32].
The sole responsibility for the content of this paper lies with the authors; the paper does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the European Commission.
Funding
Research supported by QNRF grant NPRP10-0212-17044 on Modeling and Assessing the Transition to Low Carbon/Smart Economy in Gulf Countries (M. Vielle, A. Haurie, and F. Babonneau), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada under Discovery Grant RGPIN-2016-04214 (O. Bahn), and by the H2020 European Commission Project “PARIS REINFORCE” under grant agreement No. 820846 (M. Vielle). The first author also received support provided by FONDECYT 1190325 and by ANILLO ACT192094, Chile.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Babonneau, F., Bahn, O., Haurie, A. et al. An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime. Environ Model Assess 26, 969–984 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-020-09734-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-020-09734-6