Abstract
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is struggling in its attempts to address the threat of anthropogenic climate change and create an effective international climate agreement. A substantial part of the problem is consensus decision-making within the Convention. Majority voting is a potential alternative which is already being discussed within the UNFCCC. A comparative analysis of consensus and majority voting suggests that majority voting is superior in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness by allowing for quicker decision-making and semi-global approaches to a climate agreement (termed here as “Critical Mass Governance”). This paper aims to investigate how majority voting could be implemented in the UNFCCC and to consider politically feasible and effective approaches to voting arrangements for the Convention. There is a legal opportunity to introduce voting through adoption of the draft Rules of Procedure, but this faces political opposition. A type of Layered Majority Voting with larger majorities for financial and substantial matters is considered to be the optimal approach in balancing political feasibility and effectiveness. For now, voting is not politically feasible for the UNFCCC, but could be introduced into future bodies or treaties under the Convention.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
An occurrence where consensus is declared, but is done so in manner which clearly breaks from the general legal definition and practice under international law.
Interview with a high-level secretariat member 12-06-2013.
It should be noted that this proposal, and most proposed voting arrangements, uses voting as a last resort when all efforts to reach consensus have failed.
Carbon markets and financing serve as two possible examples here, although both are relatively contentious issues.
Interview with a developed country academic 07-12-2012.
Across all economic sectors, not just carbon-intensive industries.
It should be noted that the legality of these measures under the WTO is still a topic of debate amongst legal scholars.
Interaction with a Pacific Island Delegate 14-06-2013.
Personal observation of contact group on voting agenda item under COP at COP19 18-11-2013.
Interaction with a Western European Delegate 03-13-2012, interview with an Eastern European Delegate 012-06-2013 and an interview with a high-level secretariat member 12-06-2013.
Interview with an Eastern European Delegate 012-06-2013.
The UN Security Council employs a unique combination of majority voting and consensus with affirmative votes from 9 out of 15 Security Council members, and no application of a veto from one of the Permanent five members required to pass a decision. Interestingly, the main points of criticism and suggestions for reform have been targeted at permanent member veto rights. For an overview of UN Security Council reform literature please see Bourantonis, 2004, The history and politics of UN Security Council reform, or, more recently Lulseged, 2013, Vetoing the veto: voting reform and the United Nations Security Council.
Interview with a high-level secretariat member 12-06-2013.
Interview with a senior UNFCCC secretariat advisor 12-06-2013.
Interview with a former high-level secretariat member 14-05-2013.
Interview with a senior UNFCCC secretariat advisor 12-06-2013.
Interview with a senior UNFCCC secretariat advisor 12-06-2013.
Ibid.
Interview with a former high-level secretariat member who attended this session 14-05-2013.
Interview with a high-level secretariat member 12-06-2013.
Interview with a former secretariat member and academic 09-07-2013.
Interview with a former high-level secretariat member who attended this session 14-05-2013.
Interview with a legal expert and civil society member 14-06-2013.
Personal observation at the final SBI plenary 14-06-2013.
Interview with a senior UNFCCC secretariat member 12-06-2013.
Interview with a US academic 05-12-2012.
Interaction with a developing country delegate 05-12-2012.
Passing of decisions by vote under the GEF requires an affirmative vote of both a 60 % majority of total members and a 60 % majority of financial contributions, which is expressed as a distribution of voting entitlements to members based on their financial contributions. This can be seen as a kind of hybrid between the one country–one vote model and the weighed voting model of the IMF and World Bank.
Measures adopted by the Enforcement Branch of the Kyoto Compliance Committee requires both a three-quarters majority vote of Parties present and voting and a simple majority of both Annex I and non-Annex countries.
Interview with an academic and former UNFCCC secretariat member 21-04-2013.
While some procedural matters are defined in the draft Rules of Procedure, there are ambiguities. Where ambiguity exists, the distinction between procedural and substantial issues is left to the discretion of the Chair, as per rule 42.3 of the draft Rules of Procedure.
Conditions for entry into force for any protocol would still need to be specified under that particular instrument as per Article 17(3) of the Convention.
Interview with a senior UNFCCC secretariat member 12-06-2013.
References
Aakre, S. (2014). The political feasibility of potent enforcement in a post-Kyoto climate agreement. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 1–15. doi:10.1007/s10784-014-9238-5.
Aldy, J. E., Barrett, S., & Stavins, R. N. (2003). Thirteen plus one: A comparison of global climate policy architectures. Climate Policy, 3(4), 373–397.
Anger, N., & Oberndorfer, U. (2008). Firm performance and employment in the EU emissions trading scheme: An empirical assessment for Germany. Energy Policy, 36(1), 12–22.
Baldwin, R., Berglöf, E., Giavazzi, F., & Widgrén, M. (2001). Nice try: Should the treaty of nice be ratified? (Vol. 11). Europe: Monitoring European Integration.
Bang, G., Froyn, C. B., Hovi, J., & Menz, F. C. (2007). The United States and international climate cooperation: International “pull” versus domestic “push”. Energy Policy, 35(2), 1282–1291.
Barker, T., Bashmakov, I., Alharthi, A., Amann, M., Cifuentes, L., Drexhage, J., et al. (2007). 11.7.2 Carbon leakage: Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, & L. A. Meyer (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Barrett, S. (2003). Environment and statecraft: The strategy of environmental treaty-making: The strategy of environmental treaty-making. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Barrett, S., & Stavins, R. (2003). Increasing participation and compliance in international climate change agreements. International Environmental Agreements, 3(4), 349–376.
Biermann, F. (2000). The case for a world environment organization. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 42(9), 22–31.
Biermann, F., Betsill, M. M., Vieira, S. C., Gupta, J., Kanie, N., Lebel, L., et al. (2010). Navigating the anthropocene: The earth system governance project strategy paper. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2(3), 202–208.
Biermann, F., & Gupta, A. (2011). Accountability and legitimacy in earth system governance: A research framework. Ecological Economics, 70(11), 1856–1864.
Bodansky, D. (2009). Legal form of a new climate agreement: Avenues and options. (pp. 1–8): Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Bodansky, D. (ed.) (2010). The international climate change regime: The road from Copenhagen. Viewpoints: Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements. Harvard: Harvard University.
Bodansky, D., & Diringer, E. (2014). Building flexibility and ambition into a 2015 climate agreement. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), 1–24.
Bodansky, D., & Rajamani, L. (2012). The evolution and governance architecture of the climate change regime. In D. Sprinz & U. Luterbacher (Eds.), International law and international relations (2nd ed.). Cambridge: MIT Press.
Bodansky, D., & Rajamani, L. (2013). Evolution and governance architecture. In D. F. Sprinz & U. Luterbacher (Eds.), International relations and global climate change (2nd ed.). Cambridge: MIT Press.
Bosetti, V., & De Cian, E. (2013). A good opening: The key to make the most of unilateral climate action. Environmental & Resource Economics, 56(2), 255–276.
Branger, F., & Quirion, P. (2014). Climate policy and the ‘carbon haven’effect. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5(1), 53–71.
Branger, F., Quirion, P., & Chevallier, J. (2013). Carbon leakage and competitiveness of cement and steel industries under the EU ETS: Much ado about nothing. CIRED Working Paper.
Brummer, C. (2014). Minilateralism: How Trade alliances, soft law and financial engineering are redefining economic statecraft. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Brunnée, J. (2002). COPing with consent: Law-making under multilateral environmental agreements. Leiden Journal of International Law, 15(01), 1–52.
Busch, P.-O., Jörgens, H., & Tews, K. (2005). The global diffusion of regulatory instruments: The making of a new international environmental regime. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 598(1), 146–167.
Christoff, P. (2006). Post-Kyoto? Post-Bush? Towards an effective ‘climate coalition of the willing’. International Affairs, 82(5), 831–860.
del Castillo, C. P. (2009). Evaluation of Governance of the GEF. (Vol. OPS4 Technical Document #5): GEF Evaluation Office.
Demailly, D., & Quirion, P. (2008). European emission trading scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry. Energy Economics, 30(4), 2009–2027.
Denny, C., Elliott, L., & Munk, D. (2003). Brussels urges shakeup of ‘medieval’ WTO. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2003/sep/16/europeanunion.wto.
Depledge, J. (2005). Against the grain: The United States and the global climate change regime. Global Change, Peace & Security, 17(1), 11–27.
Depledge, J. (2008). Striving for no: Saudi Arabia in the climate change regime. Global Environmental Politics, 8(4), 9–35.
Depledge, J., & Yamin, F. (2009). The global climate change regime: A defence. In D. Helm & C. Hepburn (Eds.), The economics and politics of climate change. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Downie, C. (2012). Toward an understanding of state behavior in prolonged international negotiations. International Negotiation, 17(2), 295–320.
ENB. COP17 #4. (01-12-2011). Earth negotiations bulletin.
ENB. COP17 #8 (06-12-2011). Earth negotiations bulletin.
Esty, D., & Ivanova, M. (2001). Making international environmental efforts work: The case for a global environment organisation. In Paper presented at the Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community, Rio De Janeiro, October 6–8.
Falkner, R., Stephan, H., & Vogler, J. (2010). International climate policy after Copenhagen: Towards a ‘Building Blocks’ approach. Global Policy, 1(3), 252–262.
Galbraith, J. (2013). Treaty options: Towards a behavioral understanding of treaty design. Virginia Journal of International Law, 53(2), 309–363.
Gerlagh, R., & Kuik, O. (2007). Carbon leakage with international technology spillovers. (Vol. 33.2007): Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
Hallegatte, S., Fay, M., & Vogt-Schilb, A. (2013). Green industrial policies: When and how. (Vol. Policy Research Paper 6677). The World Bank.
Hare, W., Stockwell, C., Flachsland, C., & Oberthür, S. (2010). The architecture of the global climate regime: A top-down perspective. Climate Policy, 10(6), 600–614.
Heisenberg, D. (2005). The institution of ‘consensus’ in the European Union: Formal versus informal decision-making in the Council. European Journal of Political Research, 44(1), 65–90.
Hoffmann, M. (2012). Ozone depletion and climate change: Constructing a global response. Albany: SUNY Press.
Hovi, J., & Sprinz, D. F. (2006). The limits of the law of the least ambitious program. Global Environmental Politics, 6(3), 28–42.
Hovi, J., Sprinz, D. F., & Bang, G. (2012). Why the United States did not become a party to the Kyoto Protocol: German, Norwegian, and US perspectives. European Journal of International Relations, 18(1), 129–150.
Kemp, L. (2013). Think politics is frustrating? Welcome to climate negotiations. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/think-politics-isfrustrating-welcome-to-climate-negotiations-15164.
Kemp, L. (2015). Bypassing the ‘ratification straitjacket’: reviewing US legal participation in a climate agreement. Climate Policy. doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1061472.
Koremenos, B., Lipson, C., & Snidal, D. (2001). The rational design of international institutions. International Organization, 55(4), 761–799.
Leech, D. (2002). Designing the voting system for the Council of the European Union. Public Choice, 113(3–4), 437–464.
Lockwood Payton, A. (2010). Consensus procedures in international organizations. In EU Working Papers.
Low, P. (2001). WTO decision-making for the future Geneva: World Trade Organization. Economic Research and Statistics Division.
LRI (2010). Draft Rule 42. Legal response initiative.
LRI (2011a). Issues on consensus in the UNFCCC process.
LRI (2011b). Proposal by Mexico and PNG to amend the COP’s voting rules.
Maggi, G., & Morelli, M. (2006). Self-enforcing voting in international organizations. American Economic Review, 96(4), 1137–1158.
Marwell, G., & Oliver, P. (1993). The critical mass in collective action. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mattila, M. (2004). Contested decisions: Empirical analysis of voting in the European Union Council of Ministers. European Journal of Political Research, 43(1), 29–50.
Mattila, M. (2009). Roll call analysis of voting in the European Union Council of Ministers after the 2004 enlargement. European Journal of Political Research, 48(6), 840–857.
Mattila, M., & Lane, J.-E. (2001). Why unanimity in the Council? A roll call analysis of Council voting. European Union Politics, 2(1), 31–52.
McGann, A. J. (2004). The tyranny of the supermajority how majority rule protects minorities. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 16(1), 53–77.
Meadows, D. (2008). Thinking in systems: A primer. White River Junction, Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing.
Michaelowa, A., & Luomi, M. (2012). From climate antagonists to low-carbon protagonists? The changing role of the Gulf OPEC States in the UNFCCC. FNI Climate Policy Perspectives, 6, 1–8.
Nolte, G. (2013). Treaties and subsequent practice. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Olsen, S. H., & Elder, M. (2012). Upgrading the United Nations Environment Programme: A phased approach. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.
Ovodenko, A., & Keohane, R. O. (2012). Institutional diffusion in international environmental affairs. International Affairs, 88(3), 523–541.
Paterson, M. (2009). Post-Hegemonic climate politics? The British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 11(1), 140–158.
Pauwelyn, J. (2005). The transformation of world trade. Michigan Law Review, 104(1), 1–65.
Posner, E. (2004). The decline of the international court of justice.
Purvis, N., & Stevenson, A. (2010). Rethinking climate diplomacy. German Marshall Fund.
Reinaud, J. (2008). Issues behind competitiveness and carbon leakage. Focus on Heavy Industry. Paris: IEA. IEA Information Paper, 2.
Schroeder, H., Boykoff, M. T., & Spiers, L. (2012). Equity and state representations in climate negotiations. Nature Climate Change, 2, 834–836.
Schwarte, C., Wei, D., & Roberts, J. (2011). The limitations of consensus. London: Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development (FIELD).
Schweller, R. L. (1994). Bandwagoning for profit: Bringing the revisionist state back in. International Security, 72–107.
Scott, K. N. (2010). Non-compliance procedures and dispute resolution mechanisms under international environmental agreements. In D. French, M. Saul, & N. White (Eds.), International law and dispute settlement: New problems and techniques. Oxford: Hart.
Stowe, R. (2012) COP18 and the Future of International Climate Policy. The Energy Collective.
Sugiyama, T., & Sinton, J. (2005). Orchestra of treaties: A future climate regime scenario with multiple treaties among like-minded countries. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 5(1), 65–88.
Széll, P. (1996). Decision making under multilateral environmental agreements. Environmental Policy and Law, 26.
Tijmes-Lhl, J. (2009). Consensus and majority voting in the WTO. World Trade Review, 8(3), 417–437. doi:10.1017/S1474745609004388.
UN (1992). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Underdal, A. (1992). The concept of regime Effectiveness’. Cooperation and Conflict, 27(3), 227–240.
UNEP (2007). The Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the O-zone layer: A success in the making. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.
UNEP (2012). Rules of procedure: Basel convention, Rotterdam convention, Stockholm convention. Geneva: United Nations Environment Programme.
UNFCCC (1996). Draft rules of procedure of the conference of the parties and its subsidiary bodies.
UNFCCC (2011a). Guide for presiding officers (Revised November 2011).
UNFCCC (2011b). Revised proposal from Papua New Guinea and Mexico to amend Articles 7 and 18 of the Convention.
UNFCCC (2012). Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc working group on long-term cooperative action under the convention. Draft conclusions proposed by the Chair.
Urpelainen, J. (2013). A model of dynamic climate governance: Dream big, win small. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 13(2), 107–125.
Vihma, A. (2011). A climate of consensus: The UNFCCC faces challenges of legitimacy and effectiveness. Finnish: Finnish Institute for International Affairs.
Vihma, A., & Kulovesi, K. (2012). Strengthening global climate change negotiations: Improving the efficiency of the UNFCCC process. Nordic: Nordic Council of Ministers.
Vihma, A., & Kulovesi, K. (2013). Can attention to the process improve the efficiency of the UNFCCC negotiations? Carbon and Climate Law Review, 4, 242–251.
Weischer, L., Morgan, J., & Patel, M. (2012). Climate clubs: Can small groups of countries make a big difference in addressing climate change? Review of European Community & International Environmental Law, 21(3), 177–192.
Werksman, J. (1999). Procedural and institutional aspects of the emerging climate change regime: Do improvised procedures lead to impoverished rules? London: FIELD.
Yamin, F., & Depledge, J. (2004). The international climate change regime: A guide to rules, institutions and procedures. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Young, T. R. (2002). Brief thoughts on COP-6. Environmental Policy and Law, 32(3–4), 133–136.
Zhou, X., Kojima, S., & Yano, T. (2010). Addressing carbon leakage by border adjustment measures review of current studies. Hayama: Institute for Global Environmental Studies.
Acknowledgments
I would particularly like to thank Helge Jörgens for hosting me at the Free University of Berlin Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU) during the course of this research and, along with Karen Hussey, Robert Dyball, Janette Lindesay, Olivia Liang and Tse Yang Lim, for providing helpful comments on the initial draft of this paper. I would also like to express my gratitude to the UNFCCC secretariat for their cooperation in providing me with access to officials past and present. Any mistakes are entirely my own. This research was gratefully funded by a research grant from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix: Supplementary Materials
Appendix: Supplementary Materials
1.1 Layered Voting in the Draft Paris Agreement
Co- Chairs' Tool: A Non-Paper Illustrating Possible Elements of the Paris Package: Draft Agreement, Section L (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/adp2/eng/4infnot.pdf).
-
[54.2.
Parties shall make every effort to reach agreement by consensus. If all efforts to reach consensus have been exhausted and no agreement has been reached, the decision shall, as a last resort, be taken by a two-thirds majority vote of the Parties present and voting, except:
-
(a)
For decisions on financial issues, in which case decisions shall be taken by consensus;
-
(b)
For decisions on procedure, which shall be taken by a majority vote of the Parties present and voting.]
-
(a)
1.2 DraftRule 42
-
[1.
Alternative A
The Parties shall make every effort to reach agreement on all matters of substance by consensus. If all efforts to reach consensus have been exhausted and no agreement has been reached, the decision shall, as a last resort, be taken by a two-thirds majority vote of the Parties present and voting, except:
-
(a)
as otherwise provided by the Convention, the financial rules referred to in Article 7, paragraph 2 (k) of the Convention or the present rules of procedure[.] [;]
-
[(b)
for a decision to adopt a proposed protocol, which shall be taken by [consensus] [a three-fourths majority of the Parties present and voting][.] [;]
-
[(c)
for decisions under paragraph 3 of Article 4 and paragraphs 1, 3 or 4 of Article 11 of the Convention, which shall be taken by consensus.]
-
(a)
-
1.
Alternative B
Decisions on matters of substance shall be taken by consensus, except that decisions on financial matters shall be taken by a two-thirds majority vote.
-
2.
Decisions of the Conference of the Parties on matters of procedure shall be taken by a majority vote of the Parties present and voting [, except that adoption of a motion or proposal to close or limit debate or the list of speakers shall require a two-thirds majority vote of the Parties present and voting].
-
3.
If the question arises as to whether a matter is one of a procedural or substantive nature, the President shall rule on the question. An appeal against this ruling shall be put to the vote immediately, and the President’s ruling shall stand unless overruled by a majority of the Parties present and voting.
-
4.
If, on matters other than elections, a vote is equally divided, a second vote shall be taken. If this vote is also equally divided, the proposal shall be regarded as rejected.
-
5.
For the purposes of this rule, the phrase “Parties present and voting” means Parties present at the meeting at which voting takes place and casting an affirmative or negative vote. Parties abstaining from voting shall be considered as not voting.]
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kemp, L. Framework for the future? Exploring the possibility of majority voting in the climate negotiations. Int Environ Agreements 16, 757–779 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-015-9294-5
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-015-9294-5