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Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

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Abstract

This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models. A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but they do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources being considered as a basis for the continued well-being of the society and the mankind, resource management should be treated as an important factor in future social planning.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Dr. Herbert West for providing valuable inspiration. Two anonymous reviewers also merit our most sincere gratitude for presenting comments that greatly improved this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Box 535, Uppsala, 751 21, Sweden

    Mikael Höök & Noriaki Oba

  2. School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, 18 Fuxue Road, Changping, Beijing, China

    Junchen Li

  3. Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK

    Simon Snowden

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  1. Mikael Höök
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Höök, M., Li, J., Oba, N. et al. Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis. Nat Resour Res 20, 103–116 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-011-9139-z

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