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Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey

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Abstract

Avalanches pose a serious threat to recreational backcountry travelers in mountainous terrain. This study explores how the three main amateur user groups of avalanche terrain in western Canada (backcountry skiers, out-of-bound skiers, and snowmobile riders) balance recreational goals with safety concerns when choosing backcountry destinations under varying avalanche conditions. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a stated preference technique, the study first examines the strengths and weaknesses in the decision process of the three amateur groups by comparing their responses with the choice patterns of professional mountain guides. The results show that the decision-making strategies employed by the respective amateur groups vary considerably in their level of complexity and the degree to which avalanche safety considerations are incorporated. Second, we examine the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial pieces of avalanche hazard information on the decision preferences of the amateur groups in the DCE. The results show that a relatively simple decision aid can influence the decision-making process considerably and steer users towards more avalanche hazard sensitive behaviour.

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Notes

  1. In this study, the term backcountry refers to mountainous terrain where avalanche hazard is not actively controlled by professional avalanche technicians before recreationists enter the area.

  2. Backcountry skiing refers to a type of downhill skiing or snowboarding that is practiced on ungroomed and uncontrolled slopes away from ski areas. Possible means of access to these slopes are climbing skins, snowshoes, snowmobiles or helicopters. Out-of-bounds skiing, on the other hand, describes skiing or snowboarding on ungroomed and uncontrolled slopes outside, but close to ski areas primarily using ski lifts and possibly short hikes to reach the top of the mountain. Snowmobile riders use a small motorized vehicle that is propelled by a rubber track and uses ski-like runners for steering to explore vast areas of mountainous terrain.

  3. Since each survey participant only complete two decision scenarios with and two without the decision aid, it was not possible to use a latent class approach to further examine skill heterogeneity within the various user groups.

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Acknowledgments

The initial study on amateur decision preferences was supported by the ADFAR project of the Canadian Avalanche Association, which was funded by the Government of Canada through the Search and Rescue New Initiative Fund (SAR-NIF). The subsequent survey on professional decision-making was financed jointly by HeliCat Canada, the Canadian Avalanche Association and the Backcountry Lodges of British Columbia Association. Additional in-kind support was provided by Kicking Horse Mountain Resort, Zacs Tracs and Glacier National Park. The first author of this paper was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada for part of this research. The authors would also like to express their thanks to Don Anderson for his advice on the statistical design of the discrete choice experiment and Paulus Mau, Grant Statham, Wayne Tucker, Matt Gunn, Lisa Ochowycz and Shannon Dixon for their contributions to this research. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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  1. School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada

    Pascal Haegeli, Wolfgang Haider, Margo Longland & Ben Beardmore

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  1. Pascal Haegeli
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  2. Wolfgang Haider
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Correspondence to Pascal Haegeli.

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Haegeli, P., Haider, W., Longland, M. et al. Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey. Nat Hazards 52, 185–209 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9365-4

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