Abstract
Large near-field tsunamis pose a significant threat to the Canadian West Coast due to its proximity to the circum-Pacific belt where a significant tsunami-inducing earthquake event from the Cascadia subduction zone is expected. This study investigated the risks associated with such an event in terms of pedestrian evacuation needs and plans for the Town of Tofino, a small community located on the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The population-at-risk within the hazard zone and its ability to evacuate to safety is evaluated using anisotropic path-distance modelling. Mitigation measures, such as vertical evacuation buildings, are quantitatively evaluated. Site-specific inundation modelling was not performed as part of this study; tsunami hazard and safe zones were computed using a range of run-ups varying between 3 and 25 m. It was established that up to 80% of the population is within the maximum hazard zone considered. This evacuation modelling exercise indicates that a maximum of 13% of the population would have insufficient time to reach safety when using a mobility-impaired ambulatory speed. The use of three vertical evacuation buildings can reduce the risk of losing population in this category by 99%. Although some conservative assumptions were used (vertical datum at higher high water, reductions in safe zones by generalization process and mobility-impaired evacuation speeds), the evacuation potential is likely overestimated due to the coarseness of the topographic data used in the evacuation modelling and from an overestimated first wave arrival time. This is the first Canadian study which used anisotropic evacuation modelling to evaluate the vulnerability of a Canadian community to tsunami inundation.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anguelova Z, Stow DA, Kaiser J (2010) Integrating fire behavior and pedestrian mobility models to assess potential risk to humans from wildfires within the U.S.–Mexico border zone. Prof Geogr 62:230–247. https://doi.org/10.1080/00330120903543756
Atwater BF et al (1995) Summary of coastal geologic evidence for past great earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone. Earthq Spectra 11:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585800
BC EA (BC Earthquake Alliance Society) (2016) Frequently asked questions (FAQs) for tsunami in British Columbia. The great British Columbia shake out. http://www.shakeoutbc.ca/downloads/Tsunami_FAQ.pdf. Accessed 15 Aug 2016
British Columbia Prepared BC (2015) Tsunamis. Prepared BC. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/preparedbc/know-the-risks/tsunamis. Access 21 Aug 2015
Bryant E (2014) Tsunami. Springer, Kuala Lumpur
Cheff I (2016). Tsunami vulnerability assessment of the Canadian pacific coast. Dissertation, University of Ottawa
Cherniawasky JY, Titov VV, Wang K, Li J-W (2007) Numerical simulations of tsunami waves and currents for southern Vancouver island from a Cascadia megathrust earthquake. Pure appl Geophys 164:465–492. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00101-8
CHS (Canadian Hydrographic Service) (2016a) Data products and surveys. Fisheries and oceans Canada. http://www.charts.gc.ca/data-gestion/index-eng.asp. Accessed 5 Jan 2016
CHS (Canadian Hydrographic Service) (2016b) High-water line for British Columbia. Data product and survey. http://www.charts.gc.ca/data-gestion/index-eng.asp. Accessed 3 Apr 2016
Church RL, Sexton R (2002) Modeling small area evacuation: can existing transportation infrastructure impede public safety? Final report, University of California, Santa Barbara and California Department of Transportation
Clague JJ (1997) Evidence for large earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone. Rev Geophys 34:439–460. https://doi.org/10.1029/97RG00222
Clague JJ, Bobrowsky PT, Hutchinson I (2000) A review of geological records of large tsunamis at Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and implications for hazard. Quat Sci Rev 19:849–863. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00101-8
Clague JJ, Munro A, Murty T (2003) Tsunami hazard and risk in Canada. Nat Hazards 28:433–461. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022994411319
Cova TJ, Church RL (1997) Modeling community evacuation vulnerability using GIS. Geogr Inf Sci 11:763–784. https://doi.org/10.1080/136588197242077
CSW (Centre for Sustainability Whistler) (2014). Tofino Tourism master plan. District municipality of Tofino. http://www.whistlercentre.ca/sumiredesign/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/TOFINO-TMP-Final.pdf. Access 4 Jan 2015
Das S, Vincent JR (2009) Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone. PNAS 106:7357–7360. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0810440106
DDM (Department of Disaster Management) (2009) Summary of cyclonic storm “Aila”. Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka. http://www.ddm.gov.bd. Accessed 29 August 2018
District of Tofino (2016) Tsunami information page. District of Tofino. https://tofino.civicweb.net/document/51779. Accessed 10 January 2016
Esri (2018) ArcMap 10.3.1. Esri. http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/10.3/get-started/quick-start-guides/arcgis-desktop-quick-start-guide.htm. Accessed 6 May 2018
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) (2012) Guidelines for design of structures for vertical evacuation from Tsunamis (FEMA P-646). Guidelines, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
GeoBC (2012) Digital elevation model for british Columbia - CDED - 1:250,000. GeoBC. Lands and natural resource operations ministry of forests. GeoBC. https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/digital-elevation-model-for-british-columbiacded-1-250-000. Accessed 25 Jan 2015
Gonzales FI, LeVeque RJ, Adams LM (2013) Tsunami hazard assessment of the ocosta school site in Westport. Technical Report, University of Washington, WA
Horsfield M, Kennedy I (2014) Tofino and clayoquot sound: a history. Harbour Publishing Co. Ltd, Madeira Park
Hossain MN, Paul SK (2018) Vulnerability factors and effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures in the Bangladesh coast. Earth Sys Environ 2:55–65. https://doi-org.proxy.bib.uottawa.ca/10.1007/s41748-018-0034-1
Jobe R, White P (2009) A new cost-distance model for human accessibility and an evaluation of accessibility bias in permanent vegetation plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. J Veg Sci 20:1099–1109. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2009.01108.x
Johnstone WM, Lence BJ (2012) Use of flood, loss, and evacuation models to assess exposure and improve a community tsunami response plan: Vancouver island. Nat Hazards Rev 13:162–171. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000056
Jones JM, Ng P, Wood NJ (2014) The pedestrian evacuation analyst—geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential techniques and methods 11-C9. Geol Surv, U.S. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm11C9
Karim MF, Mimura N (2008) Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh. Glob Environ Chang 18(3):490–500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.002
Katada T, Kuwasawa N, Yeh H, Pancake C (2006) Integrated simulation of tsunami hazards. In: EERI’s eighth U.S. national conference on earthquake engineering (8NCEE)
Laghi M, Cavelletti A, Polo P (2006) Evacuation route tools ArcGIS toolbox user’s mannual. User’s manual, Italian ministry for the environment and the territory and asian disaster preparedness center
Leon J, March A (2016) An urban form response to disaster vulnerability: improving tsunami evacuation in Iquique, Chile. Environ Plan B Plan Design 43:826–847. https://doi.org/10.1177/0265813515597229
Leonard LJ, Rogers GC, Mazzotti S (2013) Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada. Nat Hazard 70:237–274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0809-5
McMillan AD, Hutchinson I (2002) When the mountain dwarfs danced: aboriginal traditions of Paleoseismic events along the Cascadia subduction zone of western North America. Ethnohistory 49:41–68. https://doi.org/10.1215/00141801-49-1-41
Mikami T, Kinoshita M, Matsuba S, Watanabe S, Shibayama T. (2015) Detached breakwaters effects on tsunamis around coastal dyke. In: 8th international conference on Asian and Pacific coasts. Procedia Engineering 422–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.307
News CBC (2018) 01 23). Tsunami warning ends for B.C. after large earthquake strickes off Alaska, CBC News
Ng M, Leblond PH, Murty TS (1990) Numerical simulation of tsunami amplitudes on the coast of british columbia due to local earthquakes. Sci Tsunami Hazard 8:87–127
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) (2015) Ocean facts. NOAA. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/oceandepth.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2016
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) (2016). Tsunamis. NOAA. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/?page=tsunamiFAQ. Accessed 12 Aug 2016
Post J et al (2009) Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1075–1086. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1075-2009
Sandwell A (2011) Climate change adaptation guidelines for sea dikes and coastal flood hazard land use. Draft Policy Discussion Paper, BC Ministry of Environment
Santos A, Tavares AO, Queiros M (2016) Numerical modeling and evacuation strategies for tsunami awareness: lessons from the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami. Geomat Nat Hazards Risk 7:1442–1459. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1065292
Satake K, Shimazaki K, Tsuji Y, Ueda K (1996) Time and site of a giant earthquake in Cascadia inferred from Japanese tsunami records of January 1700. Nature 379:246–249. https://doi.org/10.1038/379246a0
Satake K, Wang K, Atwater B (2003) Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002521
Schmidtlein MC, Wood NJ (2015) Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions. Appl Geogr 56:154–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.11.014
StatsCan (Statistics Canada) (2012) Tofino, British Columbia (Code 5923025) and Canada (Code 01) (table). Census Profile. 2011 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316 XWE. Ottawa. Released October 24, 2012. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E. Accessed 17 Jun 2015
Takabatake T, Shibayama T, Esteban M, Ishii H, Hamano G (2017) Simulated tsunami evacuation behavior of local residents and visitors in Kamakura, Japan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 23:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.04.003
Thomalla F, Schmuck H (2004) ‘We all knew that a cyclone was coming’: disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 Orissa India. Disasters 28:373–387. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0361-3666.2004.00264.x
Tiling R, Hliker CC, Wright TL (1987) Eruptions of Hawaiian volcanoes: past, present and future. U.S. Geological Survey. https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/117/. Accessed 10 Apr 2017
USG (U.S. Geological Survey) (2018) January 23, 2018 M7.9 Gulf of Alaska earthquake and tsunami. U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/news/january-23-2018-m79-gulf-alaska-earthquake-and-tsunami. Accessed 30 Jan 2018
Whitmore P et al (2008) NOAA/West Coast and Alaska tsunami warning center Pacific Ocean response criteria. Sci Tsunami Hazard 27:1–21
Wood NJ, Schmidtlein MC (2012) Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest. Nat Hazard 62:275–300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9994-2
Wood NJ, Schmidtlein MC (2013) Community variation in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety. Nat Hazards 65:1603–1628. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0434-8
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cheff, I., Nistor, I. & Palermo, D. Pedestrian evacuation modelling of a Canadian West Coast community from a near-field Tsunami event. Nat Hazards 98, 229–249 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3487-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3487-5