Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The illicit drug trade, counternarcotics strategies and terrorism

  • Published:
Public Choice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

“Drug money supports terror… If you buy drugs, you might too.”

Office of National Drug Control Policy public service announcement

Aired Feb. 3, 2002 during Super Bowl XXXVI

Ad buy: $3.2 million for 30 seconds

Abstract

Conventional wisdom indicates that international trade in illicit drugs helps to fuel terrorism. Since 2001, counter-narcotics policy increasingly has been used to fight terrorism. This study investigates empirically the relationship between the drug trade and terrorism and examines whether or not interdiction and eradication efforts reduce domestic and transnational terrorist activity. The study finds that illicit drug production and opiate and cocaine wholesale prices are significant positive predictors of transnational and domestic terrorist attacks, while drug crop eradication and drug interdiction are significant negative predictors of terrorism. The study concludes with the policy implications of the findings.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abadie, A. (2006). Poverty, political freedom and the roots of terrorism. American Economic Review, 96(2), 50–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bachman, J. G., Johnston, L. G., & O’Malley, P. (1990). Explaining the recent decline in cocaine use among young adults. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 31(2), 173–184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ballentine, K. (2003). Beyond greed and grievance: reconsidering the economic dynamics of armed conflict. In K. Ballentine & J. Sherman (Eds.), The political economy of armed conflict (pp. 159–186). Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baruah, S. (1994). The state and separatist militancy in Assam: winning a Battle and losing the war. Asian Survey, 34(10), 863–877.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bibes, P. (2001). Transnational organized crime and terrorism: Colombia, a case study. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 17(3), 243–258.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biersteker, T. J., & Eckert, S. E. (2007). Countering the financing of terrorism. New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brandt, P. T., Williams, J. T., Fordham, B. O., & Pollins, B. (2000). Dynamic models for persistent event count time series. American Journal of Political Science, 44(4), 823–843.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (1998). Regression analysis of count data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P. (1995). Estimating elasticities of demand for cocaine and heroin with data from the drug use forecasting system. Unpublished paper. Carnegie Mellon University, Heinz School of Public Management and Policy.

  • Caulkins, J. P., & Reuter, P. (2006). Illicit drug markets and economic irregularities. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 40(1), 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P., & Reuter, P. (1998). What price data tells us about drug markets. Journal of Drug Issues, 28(3), 593–613.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caulkins, J. P., Reuter, P. Iguchi, M. & Chiesa, J. (2005). How goes the war on drugs?: an assessment of U.S. drug problems and policy. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter, T. G. (2005). Drug prohibition is a terrorist’s best friend. In National Post, January 4.

  • Choi, S. W. (2010). Fighting terrorism through the rule of law? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54(6), 940–966.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cillufo, F. (2000). The threat posed from the convergence of organized crime, drug trafficking, and terrorism. Director, Counterterrorism Task Force, Center for Strategic and International Studies. Address before U.S. House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/congress/ts001213cilluffo.pdf. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • Cornell, S. E. (2005). Narcotics, radicalism and armed conflict in Central Asia: The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Terrorism and Political Violence, 17(4), 619–639.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Del Olmo, R. (1998). The ecological impact of illicit drug cultivation and crop eradication programs in Latin America. Theoretical Criminology, 2(2), 269–278.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dolar, B., & Shughart, W. (2007). The wealth effects of the USA Patriot Act: Evidence from the banking and thrift industries. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 10(3), 300–317.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drakos, K., & Gofas, A. (2006). The devil you know but are afraid to face: underreporting bias and its distorting effects on the study of terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(5), 714–735.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Gaibulloev, K. (2011). Domestic versus transnational terrorism: data, decomposition and dynamics. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 319–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (2000). Is transnational terrorism becoming more threatening?: A time-series investigation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(3), 307–332.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erickson, E. (1969). The social costs of the discovery and suppression of the clandestine distribution of heroin. The Journal of Political Economy, 77(4), 484–486.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eyerman, J. (1998). Terrorism and democratic states: soft targets or accessible systems? International Interactions, 24(2), 151–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falco, M. (1996). U.S. drug policy: Addicted to failure. Foreign Policy, 102(4), 120–133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrell, G. (1998). A global empirical review of drug crop eradication and United Nation’s crop substitution and alternative development strategies. Journal of Drug Issues, 28(2), 395–436.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farrell, G., Kashfia, M., & Tullis, M. (1996). Cocaine and heroin in Europe 1983–93. British Journal of Criminology, 36(2), 255–281.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feickert, A. (2005). U.S. military operations in the global war on terrorism: Afghanistan, Africa, the Philippines, and Colombia. CRS Report for Congress, February 4, http://www.fas.org/man/crs/RL32758.pdf. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • Felbab-Brown, V. (2009). Shooting up: counterinsurgency and the war on drugs. Washington: Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Filler, A. L. (2002). The Abu Sayyaf group: a growing menace to civil society. Terrorism and Political Violence, 14(4), 131–162.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godwin, B. (1983). An economic analysis of the illicit drug market. Substance Use and Misuse, 18(5), 681–700.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodhand, J. (2000). From holy war to opium war? A case study of the opium economy in northeastern Afghanistan. Central Asian Survey, 19(2), 265–280.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunaratna, R. (2002). Inside al-Qaeda: global networks of terror. New York: Hurst and Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holmes, J. S., Gutierrez de Pineres, S. A., & Curtin, K. M. (2007). A subnational study of insurgency: FARC violence in the 1990s. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 30(3), 249–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holmes, J. S., Gutierrez de Pineres, S. A., & Curtin, K. M. (2006). Drugs, violence and development in Colombia: a department-level analysis. Latin American Politics and Society, 48(3), 157–184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hutchinson, A. (2002). Narco-terrorism: the international connection between drugs and terror. Address of Drug Enforcement Agency Director before the Heritage Foundation, April 2, http://www.justice.gov/dea/speeches/s040202.html. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • Jofre-Bonet, M., & Petry, N. M. (2008). Trading apples for oranges? Results of an experiment on the effects of heroin and cocaine price changes on addicts polydrug use. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 66(2), 281–311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan, J. (1983). Heroin: the hardest drug. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kenney, M. (2003). From Pablo to Osama: counter terrorism lessons from the war on drugs. Survival, 45(3), 187–206.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keh, D. (1998). Drug money in a changing world. Technical Document 4, UN Drug Control Program. Vienna.

  • Kilmer, B., Caulkins, J. P., Bond, B. M., & Reuter, P. H. (2010). Reducing drug trafficking revenues and violence in Mexico. Rand Corporation Occasional Paper. Santa Monica: Rand.

  • King, G. (1988). Statistical models for political science event counts: bias in conventional procedures and evidence for the exponential poisson regression model. American Journal of Political Science, 32(3), 838–863.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kleiman, M. A. R. (2004). Illicit drugs and the terrorist threat: causal links and implications for domestic drug control policy. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, RL32334. Washington: The Library of Congress.

  • Kleiman, M. A. R. (1989). Marijuana: costs of abuse, costs of control. New York: Greenwood Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koch, J. V., & Grupp, S. E. (1973). Police and illicit drug markets: some economic considerations. British Journal of Addiction, 68(4), 351–363.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lai, B. (2007). Draining the swamp: an empirical examination of the production of international terrorism, 1968–1998. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 24(4), 297–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Q. (2005). Does democracy produce or reduce transnational terrorist incidents? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(2), 278–297.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipitz, E. (2007). Opium and Afghanistan. Journal on Science and World Affairs, 3(1), 1–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Masciandaro, D. (2004). Global financial crime: terrorism, money laundering and offshore centres. Aldershot: Ashgate.

    Google Scholar 

  • Makarenko, T. (2004). The crime-terror continuum: tracing the interplay between transnational organized crime and terrorism. Global Crime, 6(1), 129–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mickolus, E. F., Sandler, T., Murdock, J. M., & Flemming, P. (2009). International terrorism: attributes of terrorist events, 1968–2007. Dunn Loring: Vinyard Software, Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore, M. (1990). Supply reduction and drug law enforcement. Crime and Justice, 13(2), 109–157.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ortiz, R. A. (2002). Insurgent strategies in the post-cold war: the case of the revolutionary armed forces of Colombia. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 25(2), 127–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perl, R. F. (2001). Taliban and the drug trade. CRS Report for Congress, October 5, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/6210.pdf. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • Peters, G. (2009). Seeds of terror: how heroin is bankrolling the Taliban and Al Qaeda. New York: Thomas Dunne Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piazza, J. A. (2011). Poverty, minority economic discrimination and domestic terrorism. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 1–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piazza, J. A. (2008). Incubators of terror: do failed and failing states promote terrorism? International Studies Quarterly, 52(3), 469–488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piazza, J. A. (2007). Draining the swamp: democracy promotion, state failure and terrorism in 19 countries. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 30(6), 521–539.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rangel, A. (1998). Colombia: guerra en el fin de siglo. Bogota: Tercer Mundo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rashid, A. (1999). The Taliban: exporting extremism. Foreign Affairs, 78(22), 22–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Regan, P., & Aydin, A. (2003). Weapons, money and diplomacy: intervention strategies and the duration of civil wars. Paper prepared for the Mapping and explaining civil war: what to do about contested datasets and findings. 18–19 August. Human Security Center at the Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Colombia.

  • Regan, P., & Norton, D. (2003). Protest, rebellion and the onset of civil wars. Paper prepared for the Mapping and explaining civil war: what to do about contested datasets and findings. 18–19 August. Human Security Center at the Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Colombia.

  • Reuter, P. (2009). The unintended consequences of drug policies. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P., & Greenfield, V. (2001). Measuring global drug markets: how good are the numbers and why should we care about them? World Economics, 2(4), 159–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuter, P., & Kleiman, M. (1986). Risks and prices: an economic analysis of drug enforcement. Crime and Justice, 7(289), 289–340.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ross, M. L. (2004a). What do we know about natural resources and civil war? Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 337–356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ross, M. L. (2004b). How do natural resources influence civil war? Evidence from thirteen cases. International Organization, 58(1), 35–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ross, M. L. (2003). Oil, drugs and diamonds: the varying roles of natural resources in civil war. In K. Ballentine & J. Sherman (Eds.), The political economy of armed conflict (pp. 47–72). Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roth, M. P., & Sever, M. (2007). The Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) as a criminal syndicate: funding terrorism through organized crime. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 30(10), 901–920.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rubin, B. R., & Sherman, J. (2008). Counternarcotics to stabilize Afghanistan: the false promise of crop eradication. New York: NYU Center on International Cooperation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanderson, T. M. (2004). Transnational terror and organized crime: blurring the lines. SAIS Review, 24(1), 49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silke, A. (2000). Drink, drugs and rock’n’roll: financing terrorism in Northern Ireland. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 23(2), 107–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steinitz, M. S. (2002). The terrorism drug connection in Latin America’s Andean region. In Policy papers on the Americas (vol. XIII, study 5), Center for Strategic and International Studies, http://www.revistainterforum.com/english/pdf_en/pp_steinitz.pdf. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • Takeyh, R., & Gvosdev, N. (2002). Do terrorist networks need a home? The Washington Quarterly, 25(3), 97–108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teorell, J., Samanni, M., Holmberg, S., & Rothstein, B. (2011). The quality of government dataset, version 6. April 2011. University of Gothenburg, The Quality of Government Institute. http://www.qog.pol.gu.se. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • United Nations Drug Control Program (1999). Report of the International Narcotics Control Board for 1999. E/INCB/1999/1. Vienna.

  • United Nations Drug Control Program (2000). Global illicit drug trends. Vienna: UNDCP.

  • United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2010). World drug report. http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/WDR.html?ref=menuside. Accessed 1 June 2010.

  • United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2011). Executive summary. World drug report. http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/WDR2011/WDR2011-ExSum.pdf. Accessed 14 July 2011.

  • United Nations Office on Drug Control and Crime Prevention. (1999). Global illicit drug trends, 1999. New York. http://www.unodc.org/pdf/report_1999-06-01_1.pdf. Accessed 14 July 2011.

  • Vuong, Q. (1989). Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non-nested hypotheses. Econometrica, 57(2), 307–333.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagstaff, A., & Maynard, A. (1988). Economic aspects of the illicit drug market and drug enforcement policies in the United Kingdom. Home Office Research Study 95 (pp. 40–11). London: HMSO.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walsh, J. I., & Piazza, J. A. (2010). Why respecting physical integrity rights reduces terrorism. Comparative Political Studies, 43(5), 551–577.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weatherburn, D., & Lind, B. (1997). The impact of law enforcement on a heroin market. Addiction, 92(5), 557–569.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winer, J. M., & Roule, T. J. (2002). Fighting terrorist finance. Survival, 44(3), 87–104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young, J. K., & Findley, M. G. (2011). Promise and pitfalls of terrorism research. International Studies Review, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2011.01015.x/abstract. Accessed 1 June 2010.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University, 330 Pond Lab, University Park, PA, 16803, USA

    James A. Piazza

Authors
  1. James A. Piazza
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to James A. Piazza.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Piazza, J.A. The illicit drug trade, counternarcotics strategies and terrorism. Public Choice 149, 297 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9846-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9846-3

Keywords

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation