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Intergenerationale Fertilitätstransmission in Ost- und Westdeutschland

Intergenerational Fertility Transmission in East and West Germany

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Zusammenfassung

Dieser Beitrag diskutiert intergenerationale Fertilitätstransmission: Wie ähnlich sind sich Eltern und ihre Kinder in ihrem fertilen Verhalten? Zunächst wird die Bedeutung intergenerationaler Fertilitätstransmission für die Bevölkerungsentwicklung erläutert und ein Überblick über theoretische Mechanismen der Fertilitätstransmission gegeben. Auf Basis der Daten des Nationalen Bildungspanels (NEPS) werden Fertilitätskorrelationen und Quantilregressionen für Ost- und Westdeutschland präsentiert. Für die untersuchten Kohorten (1944–1966) zeigt sich eine relativ starke intergenerationale Fertilitätstransmission in Westdeutschland, aber kein Effekt in Ostdeutschland. In Westdeutschland besteht ein U-förmiger Zusammenhang: Intergenerationale Effekte sind in kleinen und in großen Familien besonders stark. Im Einklang mit bisheriger Forschung stützen die Ergebnisse, dass Fertilitätstransmission in demokratischen liberalen Gesellschaften stärker ist als in regulativen restriktiven Gesellschaften. Die für entwickelte Gesellschaften übliche intergenerationale Fertilitätstransmission scheint vom regulativen totalitären DDR Regime für die untersuchten Kohorten nahezu völlig außer Kraft gesetzt worden zu sein. Die Fertilität einer Generation entsteht somit an der Schnittstelle von familieninternen Dynamiken und makrostrukturellen Kontextfaktoren.

Abstract

This study addresses intergenerational fertility transmission: How similar is the fertility behavior of parents and their children? I first discuss the implications of intergenerational fertility transmission for population development and review prominent theoretical mechanisms of fertility transmission. Using data from the German National Education Panel (NEPS), fertility transmission in East and West Germany is compared with fertility correlations and quantile regression models for count data. For the analysis cohorts (1944–66) we find relatively strong fertility transmission in West Germany but no effect in East Germany. In West Germany the impact of parents’ fertility is particularly strong in small and in large families. In line with previous research, the results support that intergenerational fertility transmission is stronger in liberal democratic societies compared with regulative restrictive regimes, such as the communist East. The article concludes that the intergenerational continuity in fertility that is usually found in developed societies was disrupted by the regulative communist regime in East Germany. Fertility in one generation therefore is generated at the intersection of family internal dynamics and macro-structural contexts.

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Notes

  1. Die Werte beziehen sich auf das 5−95 % Perzentil der Verteilung der Geburtsjahre der Eltern, um Ausreißer auszuschließen.

  2. Die nachfolgend als Mikromechanismen bezeichneten theoretischen Überlegungen könnten auch als Mikro- und Mesomechanismen bezeichnet werden, da sie sich innerhalb von Familiennetzwerken abspielen. In Abgrenzung zu makrostrukturellen Einflussfaktoren wird hier der Einfachheit halber der Begriff Mikromechanismen gewählt.

  3. Nicht-traditionelle Familienformen werden hier als alle Abweichungen von zwei verheirateten heterosexuellen Erwachsenen mit ausschließlich gemeinsamen biologischen Kindern verstanden.

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  1. WZB-Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Deutschland

    Anette Eva Fasang

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Tab. 8 Deskriptive Statistik für alle Kovariaten nach Ost- und Westdeutschland für das jeweilige Analysesample, Mittelwert (Std), oder Prozent, (ungewichtet)
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Tab. 9 Effekt der Geschwisterzahl auf die Kinderzahl in multivariaten Quantilregressionen für Zähldaten bei schrittweiser Berücksichtigung der Kovariaten, Westdeutschland, mit Kinderlosen N = 3249 (marginale Effkte)
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Tab. 10 Effekt der Geschwisterzahl auf die Kinderzahl in multivariaten Quantilregressionen für Zähldaten bei schrittweiser Berücksichtigung der Kovariaten, Westdeutschland, ohne Kinderlosen N = 3249 (marginale Effkte)
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Fasang, A. Intergenerationale Fertilitätstransmission in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Köln Z Soziol 67 (Suppl 1), 11–40 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11577-015-0314-9

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