Abstract
Economic consequences for the West caused by the war in Ukraine have been broadly analysed and discussed. However, most of the focus has been on the impact on commodity prices and supply chains. Ukraine, Belarus and Russia also sold billions of dollars of IT services to the West, which are now interrupted or lost. This paper explores how this new reality could impact the global economy, potentially costing trillions of dollars in lost growth.
Zusammenfassung
Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Kriegs in der Ukraine für den Westen wurden bereits umfassend analysiert und diskutiert. Der Schwerpunkt lag dabei meist auf den Auswirkungen auf die Rohstoffpreise und Lieferketten. Die Ukraine, Belarus und Russland haben aber auch IT-Dienstleistungen im Wert von mehreren Milliarden US-$ in den Westen exportiert, die nun unterbrochen oder verloren sind. Der Beitrag untersucht, wie sich diese Tatsache auf die Weltwirtschaft auswirken und möglicherweise Billionen von US-$ an verlorenem Wachstum kosten könnte.
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Notes
Hired employees: according to the State Statistics Service. Active individual entrepreneurs: those who declared income in the current year, data of the State Tax Service.
*estimate.
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Adam, J.A. The Impact of Tech Services Exports from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia on Global Prosperity. Z Außen Sicherheitspolit 15, 151–162 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12399-022-00905-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12399-022-00905-9