Abstract
We used multiple rounds of nationally representative agricultural survey data to analyze the trends and drivers of food insecurity in rural Mozambique. Reduced-form Probit models were estimated to explain the observed trends as a function of underlying drivers and factors related to agricultural policy interventions. Despite rapid macroeconomic growth, food insecurity in the rural areas had increased from 42.9 % in 2002 to 47.8 % in 2008. Significant inequalities were also observed in the distribution of food insecurity with a substantial disadvantage to the bottom quintile households and rural households located in the Northern provinces. Limited progress on several drivers of agricultural production and food access as well as geographic disparities appear to explain a significant part of the food insecurity trends and distribution. Whether the indicator was use of improved farm inputs and technology, receipt of agricultural extension services, farm production, or cash income, progress did not occur. This implies that to achieve broad-based food security in rural Mozambique, interventions may need to focus on addressing these drivers to increase agricultural productivity while enhancing resilience to price and weather shocks. Interventions must also be spatially targeted and tailored to each segment of the population.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
That increase was dominated by trends in rural areas where the headcount ratio increased from 55.3 % to nearly 56.9 %. Urban poverty dropped from 51.5 to 49.6 %.
This commitment is also built into the CAADP process that commits to higher and sustained spending in the agricultural sector through productivity and marketing enhancing investments.
These include the food variety score, the dietary diversity score and WFP’s food consumption score.
Cafiero (2012) and Smith and Subandoro (2007) adeptly argue that data on body sizes (height and mass) as well as physical activity levels of household members would be essential to more accurately estimate the household-specific minimum calorie requirement. In addition, one would have accordingly to adjust the estimate for pregnant and lactating women, if present in the household. Unfortunately, the household surveys used in this study do not contain all the necessary data. Therefore, our estimates of food insecurity are computed assuming a median mass and height (body mass index) for each age and sex and corresponding moderate physical activity levels as defined by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2008).
While Engel’s law would predict that food shares decrease with increases in income, recent studies have found that the poor and wealthy may spend similar shares of their income on food. In the Mozambican context the data suggest that poorer households in fact spend higher shares of their income on food, primarily because of differences in the composition of their food basket (Mather et al. 2008), and poorer households consume more calorie-dense foods that are cheaper. This implies that our conversion of food shares into calories using maize prices is less likely to be problematic among the poorer households, but may underestimate food insecurity among the wealthier households whose food baskets may include more expensive sources of calories.
Poor sanitation facilities can result in diseases and co-morbidities that lower food utilization e.g. intestinal parasites and diarrhea that reduce calorie intake and nutrient absorption. Similarly, poor food storage can lead to aflatoxin contamination and other food safety challenges that lower food utilization and stability of food supply.
This means that households that have cash flow constraints and credit constraints and do not have the ability to store food may sell farm output when prices are low, during the harvest season, only returning to the market to purchase food when prices are high.
For instance when floods occurred in 2000, households in remote areas of Mozambique did not have access to the rest of the country and had limited access to food from regional and international markets.
A brief description of the TIA surveys can be found at the following website address: http://www.aec.msu.edu/fs2/mozambique/survey/index.htm. Mather (2009; 2012) and MPF/IFPRI/PU (Mozambique Ministry of Planning and Finance/International Food Policy Research Institute/Purdue University) (2004) provide additional descriptions of the TIA data.
Depending on the region, other crops can dominate as cash crops, such as cashew in Inhambane. For the most part the spatial distribution of crop sales is a result of the distribution in climate and agro-ecological conditions that suit different crops’ production.
Marginal probability effect for female household head status is about an 11 % increase in food insecurity while the marginal effect of an additional adult equivalent is 46 % for the bottom four quintile households in the North. These marginal effects are evaluated at the means for continuous explanatory variables, with the dummy variables set at 0. The formula for converting the Probit regression coefficients to marginal probability effects is \( m \arg inaleffect=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}} \exp \left(-\frac{1}{2}{\left({\beta}^{\prime } x\right)}^2\right)\times \beta \), where β is the vector of coefficients shown in the tables and x is the vector of independent variables, evaluated at the means or at 0 in the case of the dummy or categorical variables. For dummy variables the marginal effect is the difference between the predicted probability with and without that dummy variable set to 1.
References
Abdulai, A., Barrett, C., & Hazell, P. (2004). Food aid for market development in Sub-Saharan Africa. IFPRI DSGD discussion paper no. 5. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Alfani, F., Azzarri, C., d’Errico, M., & Molini, V. (2012). Poverty in Mozambique: new evidence from recent household surveys. Washington: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6217.
Alfredo, A., Jonsson, N., Finch, T., Neves, L., Molloy, J., & Jorgensen, W. (2005). Serological survey of Babesia bovis and Anaplasma marginale in cattle in Tete Province, Mozambique. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 37(2), 121–131.
Arndt, C., James, R., & Simler, K. (2006). Has economic growth in Mozambique been pro-poor? Journal of African Economies, 15(4), 571–602.
Arndt, C., Benfica, R., Maximiano, N., Nucifora, A., & Thurlow, J. (2008). Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique. Agricultural Economics, 39, 497–511.
Arndt, C., Hussain, M. A., Jones, E. S., Nhate, V., Tarp, F., & Thurlow, J. (2012). Explaining the evolution of poverty: the case of Mozambique. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(4), 854–872.
Babatunde, R., Omotesho, O., & Sholotan, O. (2007). Factors influencing food security status of rural farming households in north central Nigeria. Agricultural Journal, 2(3), 351–357.
Barrett, C. (2002). Food security and food assistance programs. In B. L. Garner & G. C. Rausser (Eds.), Handbook of agricultural economics, vol. 2 (pp. 2103–2190). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
Barrett, C. (2010). Measuring food insecurity. Science, 327(5967), 825–828.
Barrett, C., Reardon, T., & Webb, P. (2001). Non-farm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural Africa: concepts, dynamics, and policy implications. Food Policy, 26(4), 315–331.
Benfica, R. (1998). The Contribution of Micro and Small Enterprises to Rural Household Income in Mozambique. MS. Thesis. Michigan State University, Esat Lansing, Micigan.
Benfica, R. (2012). An Analysis of Poverty in Cash Cropping Economies of Rural Mozambique: Blending Econometrics and Economy-wide Models. First Edition (Ed.) Saarbrucken: LAP - Lambert Academic Publishing.
Benfica, R., Boughton, D., Mouzinho, B., & Uaiene, R. (2014). Food crop marketing and agricultural productivity in a high price environment: Evidence and implications for Mozambique. Maputo: Michigan State University.
Boughton, D., Mather, D., Tschirley, D., Walker, T., Cunguara, B., & Payongayong, E. (2006). Changes in rural household income patterns in Mozambique 1996–2002 and implications for Agriculture’s contribution to poverty reduction. Maputo: MINAG Working Paper.
Boughton, D., Mather, D., Barrett, C., Benfica, R., Abdula, D., Tschirley, D., & Cunguara, B. (2007). Market participation by rural households in a low-income country: an asset-based approach applied to Mozambique. Faith and Economics, 50, 64–101.
Cafiero, C. 2012. Advances in hunger measurement: traditional FAO methods and recent innovations. Rome: FAO. Accessed December 8, 2012 http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ess/ess_test_folder/Food_security/Cafiero_Global_Food_Security.pdf
Carletto, C., Zezza, A. and Banerjee, R. (2012). Toward better measurement of household food security: harmonizing indicators and the role of household surveys. Global Food Security: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.11.006
Cunguara, B., & Darnhofer, I. (2011). Assessing the impact of improved agricultural technologies on household income in rural Mozambique. Food Policy, 36(3), 378–390.
Cunguara, B., & Hanlon, J. (2012). Whose wealth is it anyway? Mozambique’s outstanding economic growth with worsening rural poverty. Development and Change, 43(3), 623–647.
Cunguara, B., & Moder, K. (2011). Is agricultural extension helping the poor? Evidence from rural Mozambique. Journal of African Economies, 20(4), 562–595.
Cunguara, B., Langyintuo, A., & Darnhofer, I. (2011). The role of nonfarm income in coping with the effects of drought in southern Mozambique. Agricultural Economics, 42(6), 701–713.
Deaton, A. (1997). The analysis of household surveys. Washington: World Bank.
Deolalikar, A., & Vijverberg, W. (1987). A test of heterogeneity of family and hired labour in Asian agriculture. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(3), 291–305.
Dercon, S. (1998). Wealth, risk, and activity choice: cattle in western Tanzania. Journal of Development Economics, 55, 1–42.
Diogo, D., Amade, C., Paulo, A., & Sibrian, R. (2008). Deriving food security information from national household budget surveys: Experiences, achievements, challenges (pp. 35–44). Rome: FAO.
Donovan, C., & Tostão, E. (2010). Staple food prices in Mozambique. Prepared for the Comesa policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, held in Maputo, Mozambique, 25–26 January 2010.
Ecker, O., & Breisinger, C. (2012). The food security system: A new conceptual framework. IFPRI discussion paper 01166. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.
EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit). (2012). Global food security index. Accessed August 17, 2012. http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (1996). Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action. Accessed July 18, 2012. http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/W3613E/W3613E00.HTM
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (2008). FAO Methodology for the measurement of food deprivation: updating the minimum dietary energy requirements. Rome: FAO Statistics Division.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (2009). Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security. WSFS 2009/2. Rome, FAO.
FAO, W. F. P., & IFAD. (2012). The state of food insecurity in the world 2012: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition. Rome: FAO.
Garrett, J., & Ruel, M. (1999). Are determinants of rural and urban food security and nutritional status different? Some insights from Mozambique. World Development, 27(11), 1955–1975.
Government of Mozambique. (2006). Plano de Acção de Redução de Pobreza Absoluta 2006–2009. Maputo: Conselho de Ministros.
Grupo de Estudo (Grupo de Estudo de Aprofundamento na área de Nutrição), (2009). Relatório de avaliação de impacto do PARPA II 2006-2009. Study as input to Impact Evaluation Report (RAI) of PARPA II, Maputo, at http://www.open.ac.uk/technology/mozambique/sites/www.open.ac.uk.technology.mozambique/files/pics/d119370.pdf; Accessed July 25, 2010.
Haggblade, S., Govereh, J., Nielson, H., Tschirley, D., & Dorosh, P. (2008). Regional trade in food staples: Prospects for simulating agricultural growth and moderating short-term food security crises in eastern and Southern Africa. Washington: A paper prepared for the World Bank.
Headey, D., & Ecker, O. (2013). Rethinking the measurement of food security: from first principles to best practice. Food Security, 5(3), 327–343.
Heltberg, R., & Tarp, F. (2002). Agricultural supply response and poverty in Mozambique. Food Policy, 27, 103–124.
Hoddinott, J. (1999). Choosing outcome indicators of household food security. Technical guide No. 7. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Howard, J., Crawford, E., Kelly, V., Demeke, M., & Jaime, J. J. (2003). Promoting high-input maize technologies in Africa: the Sasakawa-Global 2000 experience in Ethiopia and Mozambique. Food Policy, 28, 335–348.
IMF. (2007). PARPA II (action plan for the reduction of absolute poverty 2006–2000). Republic of Mozambique: Poverty reduction strategy paper. Maputo: Government of the Republic of Mozambique.
Joubert, A., & Tyson, P. (1996). Equilibrium and fully coupled GCM simulations of future southern African climates. Southern African Journal of Science, 92, 471–484.
Korkalo, L., Hauta-aus, H., & Mutanen, M. (2011). Food composition tables for Mozambique, Version 2. Helsinki, Finland. Finland: Department of Food and environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki.
Latif, A. A., & Pegram, R. G. (1992). Naturally acquired host resistance in tick control in Africa. International Journal of Tropical Insect Science, 13, 505–513.
Mather, D. (2009). Measuring the impact of public and private assets on household crop income in rural Mozambique, 2002–2005. MINAG Working Paper n. 67E, Maputo, Mozambique.
Mather, D., Boughton, D., & Cunguara, B. (2008). Household income and assets in rural Mozambique 2002–2005: Can pro-poor growth be sustained? MINAG Working Paper no. 66E, Maputo, Mozambique.
Maxwell, S., & Frankenberger, T. (1992). Household food security: Concepts, indicators, measurements. Rome: IFAD and UNICEF.
MPD (Mozambique Ministry of Planning and Development). (2010). Poverty and well-being in Mozambique: The third national assessment (2008–9). Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development.
MPF/IFPRI/PU (Mozambique Ministry of Planning and Finance/International Food Policy Research Institute/Purdue University). (2004). Poverty and well-being in Mozambique: the second national assessment (2002–3). Maputo, Mozambique.
Norval, R., Fivaz, B., Lawrence, J., & Dailecourt, T. (1983). Epidemiology of tick-borne diseases of cattle in Zimbabwe I Babesiosis. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 15, 87–94.
Pingali, P., Bigot, Y., & Binswanger, H. (1987). Agricultural mechanization and the evolution of farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press.
Pitoro, R, Walker, T., Tschirley, D., Swinton, S., Boughton, D., & de Marrule, H. (2009). Can Bt technology reduce poverty among African cotton growers? An ex ante analysis of the private and social profitability of Bt cotton seed in Mozambique. Contributed Paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists’ Conference, Beijing, China, August 16–22, 2009.
Polgreen, L. (2012). As coal boosts Mozambique, the rural poor are left behind. New York Times, November 10, 2012. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/11/world/africa/as-coal-boosts-mozambique-the-rural-poor-are-left-behind.html?pagewanted = all
Reardon, T. (1997). Using evidence of household income diversification to inform study of rural non-farm labor market in Africa. World Development, 25(5), 735–747.
Reardon, T., & Taylor, J. (1996). Agroclimac shock, income inequality, and poverty: evidence from Burkina Faso. World Development, 24(5), 901–914.
Riley, F., & Moock, N. (1995). Inventory of food security impact indicators. In food security indicators and framework: A handbook for monitoring and evaluation of food aid programs. Arlington: IMPACT.
Ruel, M. (2003). Operationalizing dietary diversity: a review of measurement issues and research priorities. Journal of Nutrition, 133(11), 3911S–3926S.
Silva, J. A. (2008). A multilevel analysis of agricultural trade and socioeconomic inequality in rural Mozambique. The Professional Geographer, 60(2), 174–189.
Smith, L. C., & Subandoro, A. (2007). Measuring food security using household expenditure surveys. Food security in practice technical guide series. Washington: IFPRI.
Stephens, E., & Barrett, C. (2008). Incomplete credit markets and commodity marketing behavior. Ithaca: Working Paper.
Thurlow, J. (2012). Mozambique. In X. Diao, J. Thurlow, S. Benin, & S. Fan (Eds.), Strategies and priorities for African agriculture: economywide perspectives from country studies (pp. 349–370). Washington: IFPRI.
Tostão, E., & Tschirley, D. (2010). On the role of government in food staples markets: Perspectives from recent research and implications for Mozambique. Flash series, volume 54e. East Lansing: Michigan State University.
Tschirley, D., & Abdula, D. (2007). Toward improved maize marketing and trade policies to promote household food security in central and southern Mozambique: 2007 update. Prepared for workshop on trade policy for food products conducive to development in eastern and southern Africa, March 2007. Rome, FAO.
Tschirley, D., & Jayne, T. S. (2010). Exploring the logic behind Southern Africa’s food crises. World Development, 38(1), 76–87.
Tschirley, D., & Weber, M. T. (1994). Food security strategies under extremely adverse conditions: the determinants of household income and consumption in rural Mozambique. World Development, 42(2), 159–173.
Tschirley, D., Donovan, C., & Weber, M. T. (1996). Food aid and food markets: lessons from Mozambique. Food Policy, 21(2), 189–209.
Usman, M., & Reason, C. (2004). Dry spell frequencies and their variability over southern Africa. Climate Research, 26, 199–211.
Walker, T., D. Tschirley, J. Low, M. Tanque, D. Boughton, E. Payongayong, & Weber, M. T. (2004). Determinants of Rural Income, Poverty and Perceived Well-Being in Mozambique in 2001–2002. MINAG Research Report No. 57E, Maputo, Mozambique.
Webb, P., Coates, J., Frongillo, E. A., Rogers, B. L., Swindale, A., & Bilinsky, P. (2006). Measuring household food insecurity: Why it’s so important and yet so difficult to do? Journal of Nutrition, 136, 1404–1408.
WFP (United Nations World Food Program). (2010). Mozambique Country Overview. Available at: http://www.wfp.org/countries/mozambique. Accessed on August 3, 2010
World Bank. (2013). World Bank Databank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx. Accessed on November 3, 2013.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mabiso, A., Cunguara, B. & Benfica, R. Food (In)security and its drivers: insights from trends and opportunities in rural Mozambique. Food Sec. 6, 649–670 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0381-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0381-1