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Modelling the impacts of wildfires on runoff at the river basin ecological scale in a changing Mediterranean environment

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Abstract

This study focuses on the calibration and evaluation of MIKE BASIN/NAM model to simulate and manage the water resources on the Corgo River Basin (CRB) and assess the impacts of wildfires in water quantity. This study includes: (a) a description of the CRB from the geological, climatological and land use point of view; (b) an assessment of the major changes in CRB settings observed in recent years; and, (c) report the influence of wildfires on runoff. NAM parameters were automatically calibrated by comparing model runoff estimates with observed time series to maximise the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS). Obtained results during calibration (NS = 0.82, R 2 = 0.83) and validation processes (NS = 0.84, R 2 = 0.87) confirms the ability of MIKE BASIN/NAM to simulate the runoff variability at different scales. In the last decades, the CRB experienced a significant precipitation decrease at annual (−18 mm/year) and seasonal scale (−7 mm/year in winter and spring), substantial changes in land use and land cover (e.g., −30 % of forests and +170 % of urban areas) and frequent wildfires (1215 ha/year). The influence of wildfires is noticeable in runoff simulations with higher runoff peaks after heavy precipitation, lower runoff during dry periods and an average (maximum) increase in daily runoff of 5 % (20 %) during the validation period.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE—Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project project UID/AGR/04033/2013 and project SUSTAINSYS: Environmental Sustainable Agro-Forestry Systems—NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-0000044. We are also in debt to the Portuguese Water Institute for providing the precipitation data in the site of the National Information System for Water Resources (Sistema Nacional de Informação de Recursos Hídricos, SNIRH). Finally, the authors are especially thankful to two anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and comments that helped make the manuscript much clearer and consistent as well as to João Pereira for the final spelling and grammar review of the Manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal

    Mário G. Pereira, Luís Sanches Fernandes, Regina B. Santos & Liliana Caramelo

  2. IDL, University of Lisbon, Campo Grande, Edifício C8, Piso 3, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal

    Mário G. Pereira

  3. University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal

    Sérgio Carvalho & Ana Alencoão

  4. Chemistry Research Centre, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal

    Regina B. Santos

  5. CGUC, Av. Dr. Dias da Silva, 3000-134, Coimbra, Portugal

    Ana Alencoão

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  1. Mário G. Pereira
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Correspondence to Mário G. Pereira.

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Pereira, M.G., Fernandes, L.S., Carvalho, S. et al. Modelling the impacts of wildfires on runoff at the river basin ecological scale in a changing Mediterranean environment. Environ Earth Sci 75, 392 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5184-y

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