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Multi-Fidelity Orbit Determination with Systematic Errors

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Abstract

Multi-fidelity approaches to orbit-state probability density prediction reduce computation time, but introduce a systematic error in the single-point prediction of a spacecraft state. An estimate of the systematic error may be quantified using cross-validation. Credibilistic filters based on Outer Probability Measures (OPMs) enable a principled and unified representation of random and systematic errors in object tracking. The quantified error of the multi-fidelity approach defines an OPM-based transition kernel, which is used in a credibilistic filter to account for the systematic error in the orbit determination process. An approach based on automatic domain splitting is proposed to reduce the error beyond what is normally achievable with multi-fidelity methods. A proof-of-concept for the approach is demonstrated for a simulated scenario tracking a newly-detected space object in low-Earth orbit via two ground stations generating radar measurements. An OPM-based definition of the admissible region combined with the multi-fidelity credibilistic filter establishes custody of the object.

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Notes

  1. If the system is deterministic, i.e., has no random uncertainty, then its probability measure (and associated PDF) concentrate all their mass to a single element of the state space, representing the true state of the system.

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Funding

This material is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award number FA9550-19-1-0404.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, The University of Texas at Austin, 2617 Wichita St., 78712, Austin, TX, USA

    Enrico M. Zucchelli & Brandon A. Jones

  2. Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Centre spatial de Toulouse, 18 avenue Edouard Belin, 31 401, Toulouse, Cedex 9, France

    Emmanuel D. Delande

  3. Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E 24th St., 78712, Austin, TX, USA

    Moriba K. Jah

Authors
  1. Enrico M. Zucchelli
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  2. Emmanuel D. Delande
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Correspondence to Enrico M. Zucchelli.

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This article belongs to the Topical Collection: Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS 2018 & 2019) Guest Editors: James M. Frith, Lauchie Scott, Islam Hussein

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Zucchelli, E.M., Delande, E.D., Jones, B.A. et al. Multi-Fidelity Orbit Determination with Systematic Errors. J Astronaut Sci 68, 695–727 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40295-021-00267-y

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