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A Sequential Canonical Cascade Model of Social Biogeography: Plants, Parasites, and People

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Abstract

This sequential canonical cascade model of social biogeography is an extension of an integrated model of human cognitive ecology (Cabeza de Baca and Figueredo Intelligence 47:63–71, 2014) that predicted state-level life history and cognitive abilities in Mexico. We integrate such population-level factors by utilizing a sample of 66 recognized national polities for which sufficiently complete information was available on all the variables modeled. These national polities were limited to those found in Europe, Asia, and Africa. The Americas and Australia were excluded to avoid sampling parts of the world that had recently undergone massive colonizations by human and nonhuman animals and plants from other zoogeographic zones, which might have disrupted the evolutionarily expected relations between physical, community, and social human ecologies. Data were obtained from national census databases and international organizations, and only national polities with complete data were analyzed, meaning that no missing data were imputed based on values from nearby or otherwise similar polities. This integrated model of social biogeography proposes that abiotic climatic factors in the physical ecology as well as biotic factors in the community ecology produce variations in subsistence and natural resources that then impact biometric markers of life history, triggering changes in social equality, within-group and between-group peace, sexual equality, macroeconomic diversification, and human capital. These effects, in turn, ultimately produce changes in brain volume and aggregate cognitive abilities. The final equation in our cascade model explains 88 % of the variance in aggregate cognitive abilities by supplying more detailed information on socioecological conditions than previous work.

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Correspondence to Aurelio José Figueredo.

Appendices

Appendix 1: Measurement Model Specification

SAS 9.3 was utilized to construct the unit-weighted factors and estimate all bivariate Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficients. All common factor scores were estimated using SAS PROC STANDARD and DATA by simple unit weighting (Gorsuch 1983): (1) All subscale scores were estimated as the means of the standardized scores for all non-missing items on each subscale and (2) all scale scores were estimated as the means of the standardized scores for all non-missing subscales on each scale (Figueredo et al. 2000; McKnight et al. 2007).

For efficiency of presentation, the description of the indicators used in these analyses is supplemented with the factor structure tables showing the unit-weighted loadings (see Appendix Table 2) of each set of indicators from its latent common factor, operationalized as part–whole correlations, each serving as convergent validity coefficients among the indicators (Gorsuch 1983). All but certain cognitive ecology factors were estimated using indicators dating from AD 2001 to 2015.

Measures of Physical Ecology

Mean national latitudes and elevations were obtained from Wikipedia (2015a, b). The primary data source for annual mean national humidities and temperatures was Climate Charts (2015), with some missing data imputed for mean annual temperatures from Weatherbase (2015). Based on these basic parameters:

  1. 1.

    A brumal factor was operationalized as the latent common factor indicated by a unit-weighted composite of lower mean annual temperatures, proportion of area of temperate climate, and a composite of latitude above the equator and altitude above sea level for each national polity, where this “Boreal Index” was calculated by the following formula from quantitative physical ecology:

Boreal Index = (Absolute Latitude/333, 000 m) + Altitude above Sea Level)/482, 803 m)

  1. 2.

    A hydrological factor was operationalized as the latent common factor indicated by a unit-weighted composite of the proportion of area of tropical-humid climate and the annual precipitation for each national polity.

Measures of Community Ecology

Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest Biome (TBDF)

Three global biome maps with national boundaries were visually analyzed: (1) biome map (Wikipedia 2016); (2) map of biomes around the world (World Wildlife Federation—Discover Boreal and Temperate Forests 2016); and map of temperate forests (Marietta College 2016). Borders were matched against variously available regional and world maps for the biome maps with superimposed national boundaries wherein no nations were labeled. A Likert scale numerical coding scheme was adopted to facilitate quantitative analysis: assigning a 0, 1, 2, or 3, denoting no, some, most, or all TBDF coverage, respectively. These three maps had sufficient resolution to allow definite classification in all but 11 of 198 (66 countries × 3 maps) instances. Poor resolution or intersecting coordinate grids introduced uncertainty for Bulgaria, Japan, India, Turkey, and Croatia, but coding uncertainties recurred across maps only in the cases of Slovenia, Switzerland, and Austria. Nevertheless, at least one map proved definitive even in these three cases. A unit-weighted factor was constructed from these three convergent estimates, in which the three maps thus functioned as checks on one another, both within countries and for subtle globally mapped TBDF range variation.

Parasite Burden

The per capita disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for each national polity was obtained from the World Health Organization Site (2015). Historical infectious disease prevalences for each national polity were obtained from Murray and Schaller (2010). The logarithm of the unit-weighted composite of these two indicators was used for the analyses, consistent with the predictions of population biology.

Measures of Social Ecology

Population density was estimated for each national polity by dividing the total population of each country by its total land area, as obtained from the CIA World Factbook (2006). The logarithm of the calculated population density was used for the analyses, consistent with the predictions of population biology.

Slow life history strategy (adjusted) was operationalized as the latent common factor indicated by a unit-weighted composite of the following five sociodemographic indicators:

  1. 1.

    Infant mortality (CIA World Factbook 2006), statistically adjusted for the specific effects of parasite burden, functions as an indicator of age-specific social and environmental harshness, which has been argued to represent a central force in the evolution of life history strategies (see Ellis et al. 2009).

  2. 2.

    Life expectancy (or longevity; CIA World Factbook 2006), statistically adjusted for the specific effects of parasite burden, has been argued to represent an intrinsic component of life history as it is related to morbidity–mortality and also reflects investments in somatic effort (e.g., Charnov 1991; van Schaik and Isler 2012; Williams 1957), being thus related to covitality (Figueredo et al. 2004, 2007).

  3. 3.

    Birth rate (CIA World Factbook 2006) functions as a measure of fertility, and thus mating effort. As such, it represents an important indicator of the well-known life history trade-off between mating and parental effort (MacArthur and Wilson 1967).

  4. 4.

    Teenage birth rate (or adolescent fertility rate; World Bank 2014) is the number of births per 1000 women aged 15–19 years. In addition to measuring fertility, teenage birth rate represents early investments in mating effort, and it is well known that this is intrinsically related to the overall life history speed (van Schaik and Isler 2012; Stearns 1992).

  5. 5.

    Operational sex ratio (tertiary OSR or adult sex ratio; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2015a, b) is the number of males per 100 females in the population of reproductive age.

Social equality was operationalized as the latent common factor indicated by a unit-weighted composite of the following two socioeconomic indicators:

  1. 1.

    The GINI coefficient (Gini 1912; World Bank 2014) is intended to represent the income distribution of a nation’s residents and is the most commonly used measure of inequality. A low GINI represents a nation with a more equal income distribution.

  2. 2.

    The Power Resources Index (Vanhanen 2009; Finnish Social Science Data Archive 2015) is calculated by multiplying the Index of Occupational Diversification, the Index of Knowledge Distribution, and the Index of the Distribution of Economic Power Resources and then dividing the product by 10,000.

Within-group peace, indicating lower rates of conflict among individuals, was measured by a unit-weighted composite of the perceived crime rate, the homicide rate, the violent crime rate, the civilian access to weapons, and the perceived corruption rate (The Institute for Economics and Peace 2015).

Between-group peace was operationalized as the higher-order factor measured by a unit-weighted composite of the infra-national peace and the inter-national peace factors:

  1. 1.

    Infra-national peace, indicating lower rates of conflict among subnational polities, was measured by a unit-weighted composite of internal conflict, violent demonstrations, political instability, political terror, and internal conflict deaths rate (The Institute for Economics and Peace 2015).

  2. 2.

    Inter-national peace, indicating lower rates of conflict among national polities, was measured by a unit-weighted composite of military expenditures, armed personnel, heavy weapons, bad relations with neighbors, conflicts fought, external conflict deaths, hostility to foreigners, and willingness to fight in war (The Institute for Economics and Peace 2015).

Sexual equality was operationalized as the latent common factor indicated by a unit-weighted composite of the Gender Gap Index and the Gender Inequality Index for each national polity:

  1. 1.

    The Gender Gap Index (World Economic Forum 2009a, b) assesses how resources and opportunities are divided between male and female individuals within each national polity, as indicated by the four areas of economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, political empowerment, and health and survival.

  2. 2.

    The Gender Inequality Index (United Nations Development Programme 2010, Human Development Report) is a composite measure estimating the loss of collective achievement within each national polity due to gender inequality, as indicated by the three dimensions of reproductive health, empowerment, and labor market participation.

Strategic differentiation (Figueredo et al. 2001) estimates the degree of diversification of resource allocation profiles among slower life history strategists within each national polity, operationalized as the effects of aggregate life history speed upon the CPEM-derived (see Gorsuch 2005) unit-weighted factor loadings of low birth rate, low teen pregnancy, low infant mortality, higher operational sex ratios, and higher life expectancies.

Measures of Cultural Ecology

Macroeconomic diversification was operationalized as the latent common factor measured by a unit-weighted composite of the Economic Complexity Index, the reverse-scored GDP Dissimilarity Index, and the reverse-scored Krugman Dissimilarity Index for each national polity. Operational definitions for each of these three macroeconomic indices were obtained from the Glossary of The Atlas of Economic Complexity 2010 (The Observatory of Economic Complexity 2015a, b) and from Goschin et al. (2009):

  1. 1.

    Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo and Hausmann 2009; The Observatory of Economic Complexity 2015a, b) measures the internal economic differentiation, and hence the higher inter-individual specialization, within national polities, as assessed by the diversity of their exports to other polities.

  2. 2.

    GDP Dissimilarity Index (GDP-DI, based on the KDI; Krugman 1991, 1998) measures the dissimilarities between national polities in their relative distributions of their total GDPs among various macroeconomic sectors, and hence lower diversification of goods and services production within each of the national polities. GDP data were obtained for each national polity from the CIA World Factbook (2013), the World Bank (2014), and the Countries of the World (2015).

  3. 3.

    Krugman Dissimilarity Index (KDI; Krugman 1991, 1998) measures the dissimilarities between national polities in their relative labor force distributions among various macroeconomic sectors, and hence lower inter-individual occupational diversification within each of the national polities. KDI data were obtained for each national polity from the CIA World Factbook (2013) and the World Bank (2014).

Human capital factor was operationalized as the latent common factor indicated by a unit-weighted composite of three macroeconomic indicators within each national polity. Operational definitions for the construct of human capital were obtained from Bourdieu (1986):

  1. 1.

    Gross domestic savings rates (1975–2005 average; World Bank 2014) were calculated for each national polity as gross national income less total consumption, plus net transfers. Missing data were imputed from LABORSTA (2015).

  2. 2.

    Educational levels (1950–2010 average) for each national polity were obtained from Barro and Lee (2013). Missing data were imputed from the World Bank (2014).

  3. 3.

    Gross domestic products (1985–2005 average) or the GDPs for each national polity were obtained from Heston et al. (2011).

Measures of Cognitive Ecology

Mean brain volumes for each national polity were obtained from Beals et al. (1984). Measurements were conducted by use of mechanical packing with mustard seeds. Male and female brain sizes were averaged for each national polity.

Cognitive abilities data were obtained from Lynn and Vanhanen (2006), which is an updated and expanded edition of Lynn and Vanhanen (2002). National mean aggregate IQs were most often measured with Raven’s progressive matrices, a non-verbal reasoning test, and for some countries, a variety of other tests were employed. None of the missing values imputed by Lynn and Vanhanen for national IQs were employed in the present analysis.

Table 2 Measurement models: indicators of latent common factors

Appendix 2: Structural Model Specification

We utilized SEQCA to model a theoretically specified cascade model of effects using Unimult 2 statistical software (UM2; Gorsuch 2016). The sequence of criterion variables for the present study was theoretically specified as follows:

  1. 1.

    Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest = β 31*Brumal + β 32*Hydrological + β 33*Brumal*Hydrological

  2. 2.

    Log(Parasite Burden) = β 41*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 42*Brumal + β 43*Hydrological + β 44*Brumal*Hydrological

  3. 3.

    Log(Population Density) = β 51*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 52*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 53*Brumal + β 54*Hydrological + β 55*Brumal*Hydrological

  4. 4.

    Slow Life History Strategy = β 61*Log(Population Density) + β 62*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 63*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 64*Brumal + β 65*Hydrological + β 66*Brumal*Hydrological

  5. 5.

    Social Equality = β 71*Slow Life History Strategy + β 72*Log(Population Density) + β 73*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 74*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 75*Brumal + β 76*Hydrological + β 77*Brumal*Hydrological

  6. 6.

    Within-Group Peace = β 81*Social Equality + β 82*Slow Life History Strategy + β 83*Log(Population Density) + β 84*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 85*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 86*Brumal + β 87*Hydrological + β 88*Brumal*Hydrological

  7. 7.

    Between-Group Peace = β 91*Within-Group Peace + β 92*Social Equality + β 93*Slow Life History Strategy + β 94*Log(Population Density) + β 95*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 96*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 97*Brumal + β 98*Hydrological + β 99*Brumal*Hydrological

  8. 8.

    Sexual Equality = β 101*Between-Group Peace + β 102*Within-Group Peace + β 103*Social Equality + β 104*Slow Life History Strategy + β 105*Log(Population Density) + β 106*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 107*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 108*Brumal + β 109*Hydrological + β 1010*Brumal*Hydrological

  9. 9.

    Strategic Differentiation = β 111*Sexual Equality + β 122*Between-Group Peace + β 113*Within-Group Peace + β 114*Social Equality + β 115*Slow Life History Strategy + β 116*Log(Population Density) + β 117*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 118*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 119*Brumal + β 1110*Hydrological + β 1111*Brumal*Hydrological

  10. 10.

    Macroeconomic Diversification = β 121*Strategic Differentiation + β 122*Sexual Equality + β 123*Between-Group Peace + β 124*Within-Group Peace + β 125*Social Equality + β 126*Slow Life History Strategy + β 127*Log(Population Density) + β 128*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 129*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 1210*Brumal + β 1211*Hydrological + β 1212*Brumal*Hydrological

  11. 11.

    Human Capital = β 121*Macroeconomic Diversification + β 132*Strategic Differentiation + β 133*Sexual Equality + β 134*Between-Group Peace + β 135*Within-Group Peace + β 136*Social Equality + β 137*Slow Life History Strategy + β 138*Log(Population Density) + β 139*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 1310*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 1311*Brumal + β 1312*Hydrological + β 1313*Brumal*Hydrological

  12. 12.

    Mean Brain Volume = β 141*Human Capital + β 142*Macroeconomic Diversification + β 143*Strategic Differentiation + β 144*Sexual Equality + β 145*Between-Group Peace + β 146*Within-Group Peace + β 147*Social Equality + β 148*Slow Life History Strategy + β 149*Log(Population Density) + β 1410*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 1411*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 1412*Brumal + β 1413*Hydrological + β 1414*Brumal*Hydrological

  13. 13.

    Mean Aggregate IQ = β 151*Mean Brain Volume + β 152*Human Capital + β 153*Macroeconomic Diversification + β 154*Strategic Differentiation + β 155*Sexual Equality + β 156*Between-Group Peace + β 157*Within-Group Peace + β 158*Social Equality + β 159*Slow Life History Strategy + β 1510*Log(Population Density) + β 1511*Log(Parasite Burden) + β 1512*Temperate Broadleaf Deciduous Forest + β 1513*Brumal + β 1514*Hydrological + β 1515*Brumal*Hydrological

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Figueredo, A.J., Cabeza de Baca, T., Fernandes, H.B.F. et al. A Sequential Canonical Cascade Model of Social Biogeography: Plants, Parasites, and People. Evolutionary Psychological Science 3, 40–61 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40806-016-0073-5

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