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Climate Change, Cotton Prices and Production in Cameroon

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Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of (i) climate change and international market price volatility on cotton production in Cameroon, (ii) climate change and international market price volatility on the prices of cotton farmers, (iii) the purchase price of cotton farmers on cotton production, (iv) cotton production on the purchase price of cotton farmers. The statistics used mainly come from the SODECOTON database, the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal and Trading Economics. Econometric estimates made using a VAR model reveal that (i) the purchase price of seed cotton tends to significantly boost production, (ii) production does not significantly influence the purchase price of seed cotton, and (iii) the increase in the world price of cotton and significant variations in temperature are conducive to a revaluation of the purchase price of seed cotton. To improve cotton production, it would be advisable, in particular, to (i) make the purchase price of seed cotton more attractive to cotton growers and (ii) adopt effective adaptation or mitigation techniques against variations in rainfall.

Résumé

Cette étude vise à examiner l’incidence (i) du changement climatique et de la volatilité des prix du marché international sur la production cotonnière au Cameroun, (ii) du changement climatique et de la volatilité des prix du marché international sur le prix aux cotonculteurs, (iii) du prix d’achat aux cotonculteurs sur la production cotonnière, (iv) de la production cotonnière sur le prix d’achat aux cotonculteurs. Les statistiques utilisées proviennent essentiellement de la base de données de la SODECOTON, la World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal et la Trading Economics. Les estimations économétriques effectuées à l’aide d’un modèle VAR révèlent que (i) le prix d’achat du coton graine tend à booster significativement la production, (ii) la production n’influence pas significativement le prix d’achat du coton graine et (iii) l’augmentation du cours mondial du coton et les variations importantes des températures sont propices à une revalorisation du prix d’achat du coton graine. Pour améliorer la production du coton, il serait judicieux notamment (i) de rendre incitatifs les prix d'achat du coton graine aux cotonculteurs et (ii) d’adopter des techniques d'adaptation ou d'atténuation efficaces contre les variations de la pluviométrie

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Source Author, using data from the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal (2017)

Fig. 3

Source Author based on SODECOTON data (SODECOTON: Cotton Development Company)

Fig. 4

Source Author based on SODECOTON data

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Notes

  1. See Table 6 in the Appendices.

  2. See Model 4 of Table 6 in the Appendices.

  3. See Models 6, 7 and 8 of Table 6 in the Appendices.

  4. Voir annexes.

  5. Voir annexes.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de l’Université de Dschang, Dschang, Cameroon

    Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo

  2. Institut Sous-Régional des Statistiques et de l’Economie Appliquée, Yaoundé, Cameroon

    Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo

  3. Cellule des Etudes et des Projets du Ministère du Commerce du Cameroun, Yaoundé, Cameroon

    Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo

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Appendix

Appendix

See Fig. 5 and Tables 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10.

Fig. 5
figure 5

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Impulse response functions.

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Table 6 Descriptive statistics of the model variables
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Table 7 Determination of optimal delay
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Table 8 Result of the error normalization test
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Table 9 White’s Heteroscedasticity test
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Table 10 VAR model estimates
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Mpabe Bodjongo, M.J. Climate Change, Cotton Prices and Production in Cameroon. Eur J Dev Res 34, 22–50 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00345-1

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