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A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs

  • Economic Consequences of Aging for Populations and Individuals
  • Published:
Demography

An Erratum to this article was published on 01 May 1997

Abstract

We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago, 1101 E. 58th Street, 60637, Chicago, IL

    Robert W. Fogel

  2. National Bureau of Economic Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, USA

    Dora L. Costa

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  1. Robert W. Fogel
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Correspondence to Robert W. Fogel.

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Both authors gratefully acknowledge the support of NIH Grant AGI0 120-05 and NSF Grant SES9114981. Dora Costa also has benefited from the support of a NIA Aging Fellowship at the National Bureau of Economic Research and of NIH Grant AG12658-01AI. We thank Samuel H. Preston and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.

An erratum to this article is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF03208770.

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Fogel, R.W., Costa, D.L. A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs. Demography 34, 49–66 (1997). https://doi.org/10.2307/2061659

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