Skip to main content

Crowd Analysts vs. Institutional Analysts – A Comparative Study on Content and Opinion

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Innovation Through Information Systems (WI 2021)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Information Systems and Organisation ((LNISO,volume 47))

Included in the following conference series:

  • 2558 Accesses

Abstract

The ongoing digital transformation shapes the world of information discovery and dissemination for investment decisions. Social investment platforms offer the possibility for non-professionals to publish financial analyst reports on company development and earnings forecast and give investment recommendations similar to those provided by traditional sell-side analysts. This phenomenon of “crowd analyst reports” has been found to provide an adequate alternative for non-professional investors. In this study, we examine the informational value of these crowd analyst reports regarding their timeliness in publishing and their originality as for content and opinion. Our findings suggest that crowd analysts strongly rely on previously published institutional reports. Therefore, crowd analysts do not pose a threat to institutional analysts at this time, however, they provide a more accessible information basis and improve decision-making for individual investors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The strong influence of the conference call on the content of the reports is also evident when calculating the average similarity between the reports and the conference call transcript for this period. Pairings between conference calls and crowd reports show a similarity of 0.2706 whereas the pairings between conference calls and institutional reports show similarities of 0.2912. These values are higher than the similarity between crowd and institutional reports.

  2. 2.

    The correlation of the sentiment scores of the paired institutional and crowd reports is calculated after the influence of the sentiment from the conference call is eliminated from both variables. The partial correlation can be implemented by regressing the sentiment scores first from the crowd and second from the institutional reports against the conference call sentiment and then calculating the correlation between the residuals of these two regressions.

  3. 3.

    The results of the sensitivity check are not included into this document but are available upon request.

References

  1. Chen, H., De, P., Hu, Y.J., Hwang, B.-H.: Wisdom of crowds: the value of stock opinions transmitted through social media. Rev. Financ. Stud. 27(5), 1367–1403 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Jame, R., Johnston, R., Markov, S., Wolfe, M.C.: The value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. J. Account. Res. 54(4), 1077–1110 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Jin, Y., Ye, Q., Gao, C., Xia, H.: The value of amateur analysts’ recommendations extracted from online investment communities. In: PACIS 2019 Proceedings (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Miller, G.S., Skinner, D.J.: The evolving disclosure landscape: how changes in technology, the media, and capital markets are affecting disclosure. J. Account. Res. 53(2), 221–239 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Brush, S., Spezzati, S.: How do you put a price on investment research? https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/put-price-investment-research-2/. Accessed 27 Nov 2020

  6. Farrell, M., Green, T.C., Jame, R., Markov, S.: The Democratization of investment research: implications for retail investor profitability and firm liquidity (2018). SSRN 3222841

    Google Scholar 

  7. Gomez, E., Heflin, F., Moon, J., Warren, J.: Crowdsourced financial analysis and information asymmetry at earnings announcements. In: Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Research Paper (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Drake, M.S., Moon, J., Twedt, B.J., Warren, J.: Are social media analysts disrupting the information content of sell-side analysts’ reports? (2019). SSRN 3456801

    Google Scholar 

  9. Kommel, K.A., Sillasoo, M., Lublóy, Á.: Could crowdsourced financial analysis replace the equity research by investment banks? Financ. Res. Lett. 29, 280–284 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Tata, S., Patel, J.M.: Estimating the selectivity of TF-IDF based cosine similarity predicates. SIGMOD Rec. 36(2), 7–12 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Frankel, R., Li, X.: Characteristics of a firm’s information environment and the information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders. J. Account. Econ. 37, 229–259 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Rischkowsky, F., Döring, T.: Consumer policy in a market economy: considerations from the perspective of the economics of information, the new institutional economics as well as behavioral economics. J. Consum. Policy 31, 285–313 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Chen, X., Cheng, Q., Lo, K.: On the relationship between analyst reports and corporate disclosures: exploring the roles of information discovery and interpretation. J. Account. Econ. 49(3), 206–226 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Frankel, R., Kothari, S.P., Weber, J.P.: Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research. J. Account. Econ. 41(1–2), 29–54 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Lawrence, A.: Individual investors and financial disclosure. J. Account. Econ. 56(1), 130–147 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Elgers, P.T., Lo, M.H., Pfeiffer, R.J.J.: Delayed security price adjustments to financial analysts’ forecasts of annual earnings. Account. Rev. 76(4), 613–632 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Brown, L.D., Call, A.C., Clement, M.B., Sharp, N.Y.: Inside the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts. J. Account. Res. 53(1), 1–47 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Asquith, P., Mikhail, M.B., Au, A.S.: Information content of equity analyst reports. J. Financ. Econ. 75(2), 245–282 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Huang, A.H., Lehavy, R., Zang, A.Y., Zheng, R.: Analyst information discovery and interpretation roles: a topic modeling approach. Manag. Sci. 64(6), 2833–2855 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Chen, H., Hu, Y.J., Huang, S.: Monetary incentive and stock opinions on social media. J. Manag. Inf. Syst. 36(2), 391–417 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Schafhäutle, S., Veenman, D.: Crowdsourced earnings expectations and the salience of sell-side forecast bias (2019). SSRN 3444144

    Google Scholar 

  22. Campbell, J.L., DeAngelis, M., Moon, J.R.J.: Skin in the game: personal stock holdings and investor’s response to stock analysis on social media. Rev. Acc. Stud. 24(3), 732–779 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Palmer, M., Bankamp, S., Muntermann, J.: Institutional versus crowdsourced analyst reports: who puts it in a nutshell? In: PACIS 2020 Proceedings (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Jame, R., Markov, S., Wolfe, M.: Does crowdsourced research discipline sell-side analysts? (2019). SSRN 2915817

    Google Scholar 

  25. Clement, M.B.: Analyst forecast accuracy: do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? J. Account. Econ. 27(3), 285–303 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Clifton Green, T., Jame, R., Markov, S., Subasi, M.: Access to management and the informativeness of analyst research. J. Financ. Econ. 114, 239–255 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Eickhoff, M., Muntermann, J.: They talk but what do they listen to? Analyzing financial analysts’ information processing using latent Dirichlet allocation. In: PACIS 2016 Proceedings (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Hoberg, G., Phillips, G.: Text-based network industries and endogenous product differentiation. J. Polit. Econ. 124(5), 1423–1465 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Lang, M., Stice-Lawrence, L.: Textual analysis and international financial reporting: large sample evidence. J. Account. Econ. 60(2–3), 110–135 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Salton, G., Buckley, C.: Term-weighting approaches in automatic text retrieval. Inf. Process. Manag. 24(5), 513–523 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Han, J., Kamber, M., Pei, J.: Getting to know your data. In: Han, J., Kamber, M., Pei, J. (eds.) Data Mining, 3rd edn., pp. 39–82. Morgan Kaufmann, Boston (2012)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  32. Zhang, Y., Callan, J., Minka, T.: Novelty and redundancy detection in adaptive filtering. In: Proceedings of the 25th Annual International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval, pp. 81–88. Association for Computing Machinery (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  33. Liebmann, M., Hagenau, M., Neumann, D.: Information processing in electronic markets measuring subjective interpretation using sentiment analysis. In: ICIS 2012 Proceedings (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  34. Huang, X., Teoh, S.H., Zhang, Y.: Tone management. Account. Rev. 89(3), 1083–1113 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Huang, A.H., Zang, A.Y., Zheng, R.: Evidence on the information content of text in analyst reports. Account. Rev. 89(6), 2151–2180 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Loughran, T., McDonald, B.: The use of word lists in textual analysis. J. Behav. Financ. 16(1), 1–11 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Loughran, T., McDonald, B.: When is a liability not a liability? Textual analysis, dictionaries, and 10-Ks. J. Financ. 66(1), 35–65 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Porter, M.F.: An algorithm for suffix stripping. Program 14(3), 130–137 (1980)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. McKay Price, S., Doran, J.S., Peterson, D.R., Bliss, B.A.: Earnings conference calls and stock returns: the incremental informativeness of textual tone. J. Bank. Finance 36(4), 992–1011 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Patwardhan, S., Pedersen, T.: Using WordNet-based context vectors to estimate the semantic relatedness of concepts. In: Proceedings of the Workshop on Making Sense of Sense: Bringing Psycholinguistics and Computational Linguistics Together (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  41. Brown, L.D.: Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research. Int. J. Forecast. 9(3), 295–320 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Johnson, R.A., Wichern, D.W.: Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  43. Latané, B.: The psychology of social impact. Am. Psychol. 36(4), 343–356 (1981)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Cornaggia, J., Cornaggia, K.J., Xia, H.: Revolving doors on wall street. J. Financ. Econ. 120(2), 400–419 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Pennington, J., Socher, R., Manning, C.D.: GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In: Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), pp. 1532–1543 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  46. Wang, F., Ross, R.J., Kelleher, J.D.: Exploring online novelty detection using first story detection models. In: Yin, H., Camacho, D., Novais, P., Tallón-Ballesteros, A.J. (eds.) IDEAL 2018. LNCS, vol. 11314, pp. 107–116. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03493-1_12

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  47. Lee, J.: Analyst jobs vanish as a perfect storm crashes into research. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-19/analyst-jobs-vanish-as-a-perfect-storm-hits-wall-street-research. Accessed 27 Nov 2020

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Steffen Bankamp .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Bankamp, S., Neuss, N., Muntermann, J. (2021). Crowd Analysts vs. Institutional Analysts – A Comparative Study on Content and Opinion. In: Ahlemann, F., Schütte, R., Stieglitz, S. (eds) Innovation Through Information Systems. WI 2021. Lecture Notes in Information Systems and Organisation, vol 47. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86797-3_33

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86797-3_33

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-86796-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-86797-3

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics