Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Hydrological Forecasting

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Hydrometeorology

Abstract

Hydrological forecasts typically aim to translate meteorological observations and forecasts into estimates of river flows. Techniques can include rainfall-runoff (hydrologic) and hydrological and hydrodynamic flow routing models, and simpler statistical and water-balance approaches. Additional components may also be required for water quality applications, and for modeling specific features of a catchment, such as reservoirs, and lakes, and the influence of snowmelt. Particularly for short lead times, models may also need to be embedded in a forecasting system, which controls the gathering of data, the model runs and the post-processing of outputs. The availability of real-time data also provides the option to update the model states or parameters or to post-process the outputs to improve the accuracy of the forecast; a process which is often called data assimilation or real-time updating. For operational use, appropriate performance measures also need to be adopted for forecast verification. This chapter presents an introduction to these various topics, and to the general issues of forecast uncertainty, and probabilistic and ensemble flow forecasting.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Anderson MG, Bates PD (Eds.) (2001) Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson MG, McDonnell JJ (Eds.) (2009) Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Andrssian V, Hall A, Chahinian N, Schaake J (Eds.) (2006) Large Sample Basin Experiments for Hydrological Model Parameterization: Results of the Model Parameter Experiment – MOPEX, IAHS Publication 307

    Google Scholar 

  • Arduino G, Reggiani P, Todini E (2005) Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment. Hydrology Earth System and Science 9(4): 280–284. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/9/280/2005/hess-9-280-2005.html. Accessed 14 July 2009

    Google Scholar 

  • ASCE (2000) Artificial neural networks in hydrology II: Hydrologic applications. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 5(2): 124–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bartholmes JC, Thielen J, Ramos MH, Gentilini S (2009) The European Flood Alert System EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrology Earth System and Science, 13: 141–153. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/141/2009. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Bedient PB, Wayne CH, Vieux BE (2008) Hydrology and Floodplain Analysis (4th ed.). Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  • Bell VA, Moore RJ, Brown V (2000) Snowmelt forecasting for flood warning in upland Britain. In Flood Forecasting: What does Current Research Offer the Practitioner, BHS Occasional Paper 12 (Eds. Lees M, Walsh P). British Hydrological Society, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Beven KJ (2001) Rainfall Runoff Modelling – The Primer. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Beven KJ (2008) Environmental Modeling: An Uncertain Future. Routledge, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Casati B, Wilson LJ, Stephenson DB, Nurmi P, Ghelli A, Pocernich M, Damrath U, Ebert EE, Brown BG, Mason S (2008). Forecast verification: current status and future directions. Meteorological Applications, 15(1): 3–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chanson H (2004) Hydraulics of Open Channel Flow, An Introduction (2nd ed.). Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Sene KJ, Hearn K (2005) Converting Section 105 or SFRM hydrodynamic river models for real time forecasting applications. 40th Defra Flood and Coastal Defence Conference, York, England

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, McMahon TA (2002) Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability. Hydrolog. Sci. J., 47: 505–522

    Google Scholar 

  • Chow VT (1959) Open Channel Hydraulics. McGraw Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke RT (2008) A critique of present procedures used to compare performance of rainfall-runoff models. Journal of Hydrology, 352(3–4): 379–387

    Google Scholar 

  • Cloke HL, Pappenberger F (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 375(3–4): 613–626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cunge JA (1969) On the subject of a flood propagation method. Journal of Hydraulics Research IAHR, 7: 205–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawson CW, Wilby RL (1999) A comparison of artificial neural networks used for flow forecasting. Hydrology Earth System and Science, 3: 529–540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Day GN (1985) Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 111(2): 157–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Demargne J, Mullusky M, Werner K, Adams T, Lindsey S, Schwein N, Marosi W, Welles E (2009) Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the US National Weather Service. http://ams.allenpress.com/ Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Demargne J, Wu L, Seo DJ, Schaake J (2007) Experimental hydrometeorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts and their verification in the US National Weather Service. Proceeding of the Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. IAHS Publication 313

    Google Scholar 

  • Demeritt D, Cloke H, Pappenberger F, Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M (2007) Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environmental Hazards 7: 115–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Demuth J, Morss RE, Lazo JK, Stewart AE (2007) Assessing how the US public understands and uses weather forecast uncertainty information. Weather and Forecasting, 23(5): 974–991. http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/119820.pdf. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Environment Agency (2002) Fluvial flood forecasting for flood warning – real time modelling. Defra/Environment Agency Flood and Coastal Defence R&D Programme. R&D Technical Report W5C-013/5/TR

    Google Scholar 

  • Essery R, Rutter N, Pomeroy J, Baxter R, Stähli M, Gustafsson D, Barr A, Bartlett P, Elder K (2009) SnowMIP2: An Evaluation of Forest Snow Process Simulations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(8): 1120–1135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Flood Forecasting System EFFS (2003) Final Report WP8. Deliverable 8.3, WL/Delft Hydraulics. http://effs.wldelft.nl/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Ferraris L, Gabellani S, Rebora N, Provenzale A (2003) A comparison of stochastic models for spatial rainfall downscaling. Water Resources Research, 39: 1368–1384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ingram JJ, Fread DL, Larson LW (1998) Improving real-time hydrological services in the USA. Part I: Ensemble Generated Probabilistic Forecasts. Hydrology in a Changing Environment, Vol. III, British Hydrological Society, Exeter, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Ji Z (2008) Hydrodynamics and Water Quality: Modelling Rivers, Lakes and Estuaries. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2003) Forecast Verification. A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Komen GJ, Cavaleri P, Donelan M, Hasselmann K, Hasselmann S, Janssen P (1994) Dynamics and Modelling of Ocean Waves. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Krzysztofowicz R (2001) The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. Journal of Hydrology 249: 2–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krzysztofowicz R, Maranzano CJ (2004) Hydrologic uncertainty processor for probabilistic stage transition forecasting. Journal of Hydrology, 293(1–4), 57–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laio F, Tamea S (2007) Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables. Hydrology Earth System and Science, 11: 1267–1277. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1267/2007/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Le Dimet F-X, Castaings W, Ngnepieba P, Vieux B (2009) Data assimilation in hydrology: variational approach. In Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications, Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg

    Google Scholar 

  • Lees M, Young P, Ferguson S, Beven KJ, Burns J (1994) An adaptive flood warning system for the River Nith at Dumfries. In 2nd International Conference on River Flood Hydraulics (Eds. White WR, Watts J). Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Lighthill MJ, Whitham GB (1955) On kinematic waves: I – flood movement in long rivers. Proceeding of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 229: 281–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore RJ (1999) Real-time flood forecasting systems: perspectives and prospects. In Floods and Landslides: Integrated Risk Assessment (Eds. Casale R, Margottini C). Springer Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, Chapter 11, pp. 147–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore RJ, Cole SJ, Bell VA, Jones DA (2006) Issues in flood forecasting: ungauged basins, extreme floods and uncertainty. In Frontiers in Flood Research, 8th Kovacs Colloquium, UNESCO, Paris, June/July 2006 (Eds. Tchiguirinskaia I, Thein KNN, Hubert P). IAHS Publication 305, pp. 103–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Morse B, Hicks F (2005) Advances in river ice hydrology 1999–2003. Hydrological Processes 19(1): 247–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (2006) Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academies Press, Washington, DC. http://www.nap.edu/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • NERC (2007) Flood Risk from Extreme Events – ‘FREE’. The science of flooding. Science Plan for the NERC Directed Programme. Natural Environment Research Council http://www.free-uk.org/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • NOAA (2008) CI-FLOW (Coastal and Inland Flood Observation and Warning) Project Plan (3 November 2008) http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ciflow/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Novak P, Moffat AI B, Nalluri C, Narayanan R (2006) Hydraulic Structures (4th ed.). Taylor and Francis, London

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Connell PE, Clarke RT (1981). Adaptive hydrological forecasting – a review. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, 2: 179–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer T, Hagedorn R (Eds.) (2006) Predictability of Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Pappenberger F, Scipal K, Buizza R (2008) Hydrological aspects of meteorological verification. Atmospheric Science Letters, 9(2): 43–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Price RK (1977) FLOUT – A River Catchment Flood Model, Report No. IT 168, Hydraulics Research Station, Wallingford

    Google Scholar 

  • Raftery AE, Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F, Polakowski M (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133: 1155–1174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rebora N, Ferraris L, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A (2006) Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 6: 611–619

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reed DW (1984) A review of British flood forecasting practice. Institute of Hydrology, Report No. 90

    Google Scholar 

  • Refsgaard JC (1997) Validation and intercomparison of different updating procedures for real-time forecasting. Nordic Hydrology, 28(2): 65–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Rungo M, Refsgaard JK, Havno K (1989) The updating procedure in the MIKE 11 modelling system for real time forecasting. In Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar (Eds. Cluckie ID, Collier CG). Ellis Horwood, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Schaake J, Demargne J, Hartman R, Mullusky M, Welles E, Wu L, Herr H, Fan X, Seo DJ (2007a) Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Science Discussions, 4: 655–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaake JC, Hamill TM, Buizza R, Clark M (2007b) HEPEX The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 88: 1541–1547. http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/88/10/pdf/i1520-0477-88-10-1541.pdf. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Sene K (2008) Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response. Springer, Dordrecht

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Seo D-J, Cajina L, Corby R, Howieson T (2009) Automatic state updating for operational streamflow forecasting via variational data assimilation. Journal of Hydrology, 367(3–4): 255–275

    Google Scholar 

  • Serban P, Askew AJ (1991) Hydrological forecasting and updating procedures. IAHS Publ. No. 201: 357–369

    Google Scholar 

  • Servat E, Demuth S (2006) FRIEND – a global perspective 2002–2006. IHP/HWRP-Sekretariat. United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation International Hydrological Programme VI. http://typo38.unesco.org/en/about-ihp/ihp-partners/friend.html. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Sherman LK (1932) Streamflow from rainfall by the unit graph method. Engineering News Record, 108: 501–505

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh VP (Ed.) (1995) Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh VP, Frevert DK (2002) Mathematical Models of Large Watershed Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO

    Google Scholar 

  • Smakhtin VU (2001) Low flow hydrology: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 240: 147–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith MB, Seo DJ, Koren VI, Reed SM, Zhang Z, Duan Q, Moreda F, Cong S (2004) The distributed model intercomparison project (DMIP): motivation and experiment design. Journal of Hydrology, 298(1–4): 4–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sivakumar B, Berndtsson R (2009) Modeling and prediction of complex environmental systems. Editorial and 14 papers. Journal of Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(7): 861–862

    Google Scholar 

  • Stanski HR., Wilson LJ, Burrows WR (1989) Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. World Weather Watch Technical Report No.8, WMO/TD No.358, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ (2004) Hydrological Drought: Processes and Estimation Methods for Streamflow and Groundwater. Developments in Water Science 48, Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang X, Knight DW, Samuels PG (1999) Volume conservation in variable parameter Muskingum Cunge method. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 112: 610–620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M-H, de Roo A (2009) The European Flood Alert System – Part 1: Concept and development. Hydrology Earth System and Science, 13: 125–140. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/125/2009. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Todini E (2007) Hydrological catchment modeling: past, present and future. Hydrology Earth System and Science, 11(1): 468–482. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/468/2007/hess-11-468-2007.html. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Tolman HL (1999) User Manual and System Documentation of WAVEWATCH-III, Version 1.18. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OMB Technical Note 166, National Weather Service, NOAA, US Department of Commerce

    Google Scholar 

  • Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DL T, Mason SJ. (2008) Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk. NATO Science Series IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 82, Springer, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Hoyos C (November 2004) Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30 day time scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85: 1745–1765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Werner M, Cranston M, Harrison T, Whitfield D, Schellekens J (2009) Recent developments in operational flood forecasting in England, Wales and Scotland. Meteorological Applications, 16(1): 13–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Werner M, Self K (2005) Measuring performance in flood forecasting: a question of model reliability or of forecast reliability. ACTIF International Conference on Innovation Advances and Implementation of Flood Forecasting Technology, 17 to 19 October 2005, Tromsø, Norway. http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • White KD (2003) Review of prediction methods for breakup ice jams. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 30: 89–100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Wigley TM L (1997) Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography, 21(4): 530–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood AW, Schaake JC (2008) Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 9(1): 132–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (1989) Statistical distributions for flood frequency analysis. Operational Hydrology Report No. 33, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (1992) Simulated real time intercomparison of hydrological models. Operational Hydrology Report No. 38, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (1994) Guide to Hydrological Practices (5th ed.). WMO No. 168, Geneva (6th ed., in press, 2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organization (1986) Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation. Operational Hydrology Report No. 1, WMO–No. 332, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu C (1999) From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches. Progress in Physical Geography 23(2): 229–249

    Google Scholar 

  • Yeh WW-G (1985) Reservoir management and operations models: a state-of-the-art review. Water Resources Research, 21(12): 1797–1818

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young P, Leedal D, Beven K (2009) Reduced Order Emulation of Distributed Hydraulic Simulation Models. Paper WeB7.2. The 15th IFAC Symposium on System Identification, July 6–8, 2009, Saint-Malo, France

    Google Scholar 

  • Young PC, Ratto M (2009) A unified approach to environmental systems modeling. Journal Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(7): 1037–1057

    Google Scholar 

  • Zappa M, Rotach MW, Arpagaus M, Dorninger M, Hegg C, Montani A, Ranzi R, Ament F, Germann U, Grossi G, Jaun S, Rossa A, Vogt S, Walser A, Wehrhan J, Wunram C (2008) MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Special Issue Article – HEPEX Workshop: Stresa, Italy, June 2007. Atmospheric Science Letters, 9(2): 80–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atkins Water, Warrington, Cheshire, UK

    Kevin Sene

Authors
  1. Kevin Sene
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kevin Sene .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Sene, K. (2010). Hydrological Forecasting. In: Hydrometeorology. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation