Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO), one of the major modes of climate variability over the Asian-Pacific sector, has a pronounced effect on variations of large-scale atmospheric circulations and climate. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state-of-the-art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating its association with the atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region and the precipitation over East Asia. Furthermore, their future connections under the RCP8.5 scenario were examined. The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere; an intensification of the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) as well as a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere; and a decrease in East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) under the positive APO phase. Based on the five CMIP5 models’ simulations, the dynamic linkages of the APO to the SAH, NPT, AL, and NPSH are projected to maintain during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, its connection with the EASR tends to reduce significantly. Such a reduction might result from the weakening of the linkage of the APO to the meridional displacement of the EAJ and WPSH as a response to the warming scenario.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Chen HP, Sun JQ (2013) Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario. Meteorol Atmos Phys 121:55–77. doi:10.1007/s00703-013-0257-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen JM, Zhao P, Yang S, Liu G, Zhou X (2013a) Simulation and dynamical prediction of the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation and associated climate anomalies by the NCEP CFSv2. J Clim 26:3644–3656. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00368.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen XL, Zhou TJ, Zou LW (2013b) Variation characteristics of the Asian-Pacific Oscillation in boreal summer as simulated by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS_gl. Acta Meteorol Sin 71(1):23–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Gong DY, Ho C (2003) Arctic oscillation signals in the East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res 108:4066. doi:10.1029/2002JD002193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He C, Wu B, Li CH, Lin AL, Gu DJ, Zheng B, Zhou TJ (2016) How much of the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by SST? Clim Dyn 47:555–565. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2855-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang YY, Wang HJ, Fan K (2014) Improving the prediction of the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation using the interannual increment approach. J Clim 27:8126–8134. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00209.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang DB, Tian ZP, Lang XM (2016) Reliability of climate models for China through the IPCC Third to Fifth Assessment Reports. Int J Climatol 36:1114–1133. doi:10.1002/joc.4406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kidston J, Gerber EP (2010) Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in the 20th century climatology. Geophys Res Lett 37:L09708. doi:10.1029/4672010GL042873

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Kim KM, Yang S (2000) Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 13:2461–2482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang XZ, Wang WC (1998) Association between China monsoon rainfall and tropospheric jets. Q J R Meteorol Soc 124:2597–2623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu G, Zhao P, Chen JM. (2011) A 150-year reconstructed summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and its association with precipitation over eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 103:239–248. doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0294-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu RY (2001) Interannual variability of the summertime North Pacific subtropical high and its relation to atmospheric convection over the warm pool. J Meteorol Soc Japan 79:771–783

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu RY (2004) Associations among the components of East Asian summer monsoon system in the meridional direction. J Meteorol Soc Japan 82:155–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Man WM, Zhou TJ (2011) Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model. Chin Sci Bull 56:3042–3052. doi:10.1007/s11434-011-4637-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. doi:10.1038/nature08823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren YJ, Zhou BT, Song LC, Xiao Y (2016) Interannual variability of western North Pacific subtropical high, East Asian jet and East Asian summer precipitation: CMIP5 simulation and projection. Quatern Int. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.033

    Google Scholar 

  • Song F, Zhou TJ (2014) The climatology and interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 coupled models: does air-sea coupling improve the simulations? J Clim 27:8761–8777. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00396.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer BJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang HJ, He SP, Liu JP (2013) Present and future relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO: results of CMIP5. J Geophys Res Oceans 118:5222–5237. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu G, Chou J, Liu Y, Zhang Y, Sun S (2003) Review and prospect of the study on the subtropical anticyclone. Chin J Atmos Sci 27(4):503–517

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, Zhou BT, Xu Y (2015) Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming: CMIP5 simulation and projection. Chin J Geophys 58(9):3048–3060. doi:10.6038/cjg20150903

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang QY, Tao SY, Chen LT (2003) The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia. Acta Meteorol Sin 61(4):559–568

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Zhu YN, Zhang RH (2007) An Asian-Pacific teleconnection in summer tropospheric temperature and associated Asian climate variability. Clim Dyn 29:293–303. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0236-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Chen JM, Xiao D, Nan SL, Zou Y, Zhou BT (2008) Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall. Acta Meteorol Sin 22(4):455–471

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Cao ZH, Chen JM (2010a) A summer teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and associated mechanisms. Clim Dyn 35:523–534. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0699-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Yang S, Yu RC (2010b) Long-term changes in rainfall over Eastern China and large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with recent global warming. J Clim 23:1544–1562. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2660.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Wang B, Zhou X (2012a) Boreal summer continental monsoon rainfall and hydroclimate anomalies associated with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation. Clim Dyn 39:1197–1207. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1348-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Yang S, Wu RG, Wen ZP, Chen JM, Wang HJ (2012b) Asian origin of interannual variations of summer climate over the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 25:6594–6609. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00617.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou BT (2016) The Asian-Pacific Oscillation pattern in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4668

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou BT, Wang ZY (2015) On the significance of the interannual relationship between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Geophys Res 120:6489–6499. doi:10.1002/2015JD023328

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou TJ, Zhang J (2009) Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July-August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent, and North Pacific. Adv Atmos Sci 26:656–665. doi:10.1007/s00376-009-9020-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275078, 41675069), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600701), and the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GYHY201306026).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Botao Zhou, Ying Xu & Ying Shi

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Botao Zhou

Authors
  1. Botao Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ying Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ying Shi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Botao Zhou.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhou, B., Xu, Y. & Shi, Y. Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5. Clim Dyn 50, 17–29 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3579-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3579-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation