Abstract
This study analyzed the variability of the agro-climatic parameters that impact maize production across different seasons in South Africa. To achieve this, four agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum, and maximum temperatures) were considered for the period spanning 1986–2015, covering the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces. Results illustrate that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Furthermore, the results showed that among other agro-climatic parameters, minimum temperature had the most influence on maize production in North West, potential evapotranspiration (combination of the agro-climatic parameters), minimum and maximum temperature influenced maize production in KZN while maximum temperature influenced maize production in Mpumalanga and Free State. In general, the agro-climatic parameters were found to contribute 7.79, 21.85, 32.52, and 44.39% to variation in maize production during the study period in North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KZN, respectively. The variation in maize production among the provinces under investigation could most likely attribute to the variation in the size of the cultivated land among other factors including soil type and land tenure system. There were also difference in yield per hectare between the provinces; KZN and Mpumalanga being located in the humid subtropical areas of South Africa had the highest yield per hectare 5.61 and 4.99 tons, respectively, while Free State and North West which are in the semi-arid region had the lowest yield per hectare 3.86 and 3.03 tons, respectively. Understanding the nature and interaction of the dominant agro-climatic parameters discussed in the present study as well as their impact on maize production will help farmers and agricultural policy makers to understand how climate change exerts its influence on maize production within the study area so as to better adapt to the major climate element that either increases or decreases maize production in their respective provinces.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ajadi BS, Adeniyi A, Afolabi MT (2011) Impact of climate on urban agriculture: case study of Ilorin City, Nigeria. GJHSS 11(1):45–49
Blignaut J, Ueckermann L, Aronson J (2009) Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa. S Afr J Sci 105:61–68
Botai CM, Botai JO, Dlamini LC, Zwane NS, Phaduli E (2016) Characteristics of droughts in South Africa: a case study of Free State and North West provinces. Water 8(10):439. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8100439
Chipanshi AC, Chana R, Totolo O (2003) Vulnerability assessment of the maize and sorghum crops to climate change in Botswana. Clim Chang 61(3):339–3360. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004551.55871.eb
Dastane NG (2013) Effective rainfall in irrigated agriculture. FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy. http://www.fao.org/docrep/X5560E/x5560e00.htm. Accessed 12 Sept 2016
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Republic of South Africa (2015) Abstract of agricultural statistics.
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Republic of South Africa (2015) Animal feeds market analysis report
Deressa T, Hassan R, Poonyth D (2005) Measuring economic impact of climate change on South African’s sugarcane. Agrekon 44(4):524–542. https://doi.org/10.1080/03031853.2005.9523726
du Jean P (2003) Maize production. Compiled by Directorate Agricultural Information Services Department of Agriculture in cooperation with ARC-Grain Crops Institute. Printed and published by the Department of Agriculture and obtainable from Resource Centre Directorate Agricultural Information Services Private Bag X144, Pretoria, 0001 South Africa
Du Toit AS, Prinsloo MA, Durand W, Kiker G (2001) Report on vulnerability of maize production to climate change and adaptation assessment in South Africa. Agricultural Research Council, Grain Crops Institute
Durand W (2006) Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. CEEPA Discussion Paper #28. University of Pretoria, South Africa
Erasmus B, Van Jaarsveld A, Van Zyl J, Vink N (2000) The effect of climate change on farm sector in the Western Cape. Agrekon 39(4):559–573. https://doi.org/10.1080/03031853.2000.9523673
FAO Statistical yearbook (2014) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Africa, Accra. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3620e.pdf. Accessed 12 Sept 2016
Fischer G, Mahendra S, Francesco NT, Harrij van V (2005) Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Phil Trans R Soc B 360(1463):2067–2083. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1744
Gbetibouo G, Hassan R (2005) Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach. Glob Planet Chang 47(2–4):143–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.009
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Fay P, Hahn L, Izaurralde RC, Kimball BA, Mader T, Morgan J, Ort D, Polley W, Thomson A, Wolfe D (2008) Agriculture in:. The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States
Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball BA, Ziska LH, Izaurralde RC, Ort D, Thomson AM, Wolfe DW (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron J 103(2):351–370. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2010.0303
Hawkins RH (1981) Interpretations of source area variability in rainfall-runoff relations. In International symposium on rainfall-runoff modeling; water resources publications: Littleton, CO, USA, pp. 303–324
Hewitson B (1999) Regional climate scenarios. Prepared for the SA Country Studies Programme, South Africa
IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Fourth assessment report, working group 2: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Chapter 9
Jill E, Cairns JH, Kai S, José LA, John FM, Christian T, Prasanna BM (2013) Adapting maize production to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Food Sec 5(3):345–360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-013-0256-x
Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F (2006) World map of Köppen Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Z 15(3):259–263. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130
Kruger AC, Shongwe S (2004) Temperature trends in South Africa: 1960–2003. Int J Climatol 24(15):1929–1945. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1096
Magadza CHD (2000) Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: prospects for adaptation. Environ Monit Assess 61(1):193–205. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006355210516
Marchetto A, Rogora M, Arisci S (2013) Trend analysis of atmospheric deposition data: a comparison of statistical approaches. Atmos Environ 64:95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.08.020
Molua EL, Lambi CM (2006) Assessing the impact of climate on crop water use and crop water productivity: the CROPWAT analysis of three districts in Cameroon. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria #33
Molua EL, Benhin J, Kabubo MJ, Ouedraogo M, El-Marsafawy S (2010) Global climate change and vulnerability of African agriculture: implications for resilience and sustained productive capacity. Q J Int Agric 49(3):183–211
Schulze RE, Kiker GA, Kunz RP (1993) Global climate change and agricultural productivity in southern Africa. Glob Environ Chang 3(4):330–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/0959-3780(93)90022-D
Suresh S, Indrajeet C (2017) Surface and subsurface transport of nitrate loss from the selected bioenergy crop fields: systematic review, analysis and future directions. Agriculture 7(3):27. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture7030027. www.mdpi.com/journal/agriculture
Tesfamariam EH, Annandale JG, Steyn JM (2010) Water stress effects on winter canola growth and yield. Agron J 102(2):658–666. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0043
Tesfamariam EH, Annandale JG, Steyn JM, Stirzaker RJ, Mbakwe I (2015) Use of the SWB-Sci model for nitrogen management in sludge-amended land. Agic Water Manage 152:262–276
Thornton PK, Jones PG, Ericksen PJ, Challinor AJ (2011) Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a four-plus degree world. Phil Trans R Soc A 369(1934):117–136. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0246
Wenbin M, Fuliang Y, Chuanzhe L, Yuebo X, Jiyang T, Jia L, Nana Z (2015) Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and soil moisture content on different growing stages of spring maize. Water 7(6):2990–3008. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7062990
Wisdom A, Rashid MH, Claudia R (2008) Climate variability and maize yield in South Africa. Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa and International Food Policy Research Institute. 28
Yinhong K, Shahbaz K, Xiaoyi M (2009) Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – a review. Prog Nat Sci 19:1665–1674
Acknowledgements
I will like to acknowledge the University of Pretoria through the Animal change project and DST for providing bursary through a grant that was received by University of Pretoria.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Omolola M. Adisa collected and analyzed the data and drafted the manuscript. Christina M. Botai drafted and finalized the manuscript. Joel O. Botai coordinated the group study and edited the manuscript. Abubeker Hassen, Daniel Darkey, and Eyob Tesfamariam were involved in designing and discussing the study. Alex A. Adisa interpreted the analysis and edited the manuscript, while Abiodun Adeola prepared study area and edited the manuscript and Katlego P. Ncongwane edited the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Adisa, O.M., Botai, C.M., Botai, J.O. et al. Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 134, 991–1004 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2327-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2327-y