Abstract
The presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations can lead to considerable change in significance of trend in hydro-climatic time series. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider autocorrelations became a questionable issue. The spatial patterns in the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and related extremes in Egypt have been assessed in this paper using modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) trend test which can detect unidirectional trends in time series in the presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations. The trends obtained using the MMK test was compared with that obtained using standard Mann-Kendall (MK) test to show how natural variability in climate affects the trends. The daily rainfall and temperature data of Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948–2010 having a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was used for this purpose. The results showed a large difference between the trends obtained using MMK and MK tests. The MMK test showed increasing trends in temperature and a number of temperature extremes in Egypt, but almost no change in rainfall and rainfall extremes. The minimum temperature was found to increase (0.08–0.29 °C/decade) much faster compared to maximum temperature (0.07–0.24 °C/decade) and therefore, a decrease in diurnal temperature range (− 0.01 to − 0.16 °C/decade) in most part of Egypt. The number of winter hot days and nights are increasing, while the number of cold days is decreasing in most part of the country. The study provides a more realistic scenario of the changes in climate and weather extremes of Egypt.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aadhar S, Mishra V (2017) High-resolution near real-time drought monitoring in South Asia. Sci Data 4:170145. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.145
Ahmed K, Shahid S, Chung E-S, Ismail T, Wang X-J (2017) Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan. Clim Res 74:95–107
Aich V et al (2017) Climate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia simulations. Climate 5:38. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020038
Aloysius N, Saiers J (2017) Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21:4115–4130. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4115-2017
Awange JL, Mpelasoka F, Goncalves RM (2016) When every drop counts: analysis of droughts in Brazil for the 1901–2013 period. Sci Total Environ 566:1472–1488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.031
Barros VR, Boninsegna JA, Camilloni IA, Chidiak M, Magrín GO, Rusticucci M (2015) Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 6:151–169. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.316
Braganza K, Karoly D, Hirst A, Mann M, Stott P, Stouffer R, Tett S (2003) Simple indices of global climate variability and change: part I—variability and correlation structure. Clim Dyn 20:491–502
Cardil A, Salis M, Spano D, Delogu G, Molina Terrén D (2014) Large wildland fires and extreme temperatures in Sardinia (Italy). iForest Biogeosci For 7:162–169. https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor1090-007
Chiew FH (2006) An overview of methods for estimating climate change impact on runoff. In: 30th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium: past, present & future. Conference Design, p. 643
Chu P-S, Wang J-B (1997) Recent climate change in the tropical Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions as detected by outgoing longwave radiation records. J Clim 10:636–646. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0636:rccitt>2.0.co;2
Domroes M, El-Tantawi A (2005) Recent temporal and spatial temperature changes in Egypt. Int J Climatol 25:51–63. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1114
Duan Z, Liu J, Tuo Y, Chiogna G, Disse M (2016) Evaluation of eight high spatial resolution gridded precipitation products in Adige Basin (Italy) at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Sci Total Environ 573:1536–1553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.213
Dutta S, Chaudhuri G (2015) Evaluating environmental sensitivity of arid and semiarid regions in northeastern Rajasthan, India. Geogr Rev 105:441–461. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2015.12093.x
Ehsanzadeh E, Adamowski K (2010) Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long-term persistence. Hydrol Process 24:970–980. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7533
Elmallah ES, Elsharkawy SG (2011) Influence of circulation indices upon winter temperature variability in Egypt. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys 73:439–448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2010.10.013
Elnazer AA, Salman SA, Asmoay AS (2017) Flash flood hazard affected Ras Gharib City, Red Sea, Egypt: a proposed flash flood channel. Nat Hazards 89:1389–1400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3030-0
Fathian F, Aliyari H, Kahya E, Dehghan Z (2016) Temporal trends in precipitation using spatial techniques in GIS over Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Int J Hydrol Sci Technol 6:62–81
Griffiths JF (1966) Applied climatology: an introduction
Hafez YY, Almazroui M (2016) Study of the relationship between African ITCZ variability and an extreme heat wave on Egypt in summer 2015. Arab J Geosci 9:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2497-4
Hamed KH (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. J Hydrol 349:350–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.009
Hamed KH (2009) Exact distribution of the Mann–Kendall trend test statistic for persistent data. J Hydrol 365:86–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.024
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
Hasanean HM (2004) Wintertime surface temperature in Egypt in relation to the associated atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 24:985–999. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1043
Hasanean HM, Basset HA (2006) Variability of summer temperature over Egypt. Int J Climatol 26:1619–1634. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1321
Hereher ME (2016) Time series trends of land surface temperatures in Egypt: a signal for global warming. Environ Earth Sci 75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6024-4
Iliopoulou T, Papalexiou SM, Markonis Y, Koutsoyiannis D (2016) Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation. J Hydrol 556:891–900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.015
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability—part B: regional aspects—contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. doi:citeulike-article-id:13497155
Karoly DJ, Braganza K, Stott PA, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA, Broccoli AJ, Dixon KW (2003) Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science 302:1200–1203
Kendall MG (1948) Rank correlation methods
Koutsoyiannis D (2003) Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics. Hydrol Sci J 48:3–24. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481
Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol 374:171–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.012
Lacombe G, Hoanh CT, Smakhtin V (2012) Multi-year variability or unidirectional trends? Mapping long-term precipitation and temperature changes in continental Southeast Asia using PRECIS regional climate model. Clim Chang 113:285–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0359-3
Lelieveld J, Proestos Y, Hadjinicolaou P, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Zittis G (2016) Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Clim Chang 137:245–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Ludescher J, Bunde A, Franzke CLE, Schellnhuber HJ (2016) Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica. Clim Dyn 46:263–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Markonis Y, Koutsoyiannis D (2013) Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov. Dyn Surv Geophys 34:181–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9
Markonis Y, Batelis SC, Dimakos Y, Moschou E, Koutsoyiannis D (2017) Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece. Theor Appl Climatol 130:217–232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7
McLeod AI, Hipel KW (1978) Preservation of the rescaled adjusted range: 1. A reassessment of the Hurst phenomenon. Water Resour Res 14:491–508. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i003p00491
MWRI (2005) Water for the future. National Water Resources Plan 2017. Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
Niero M, Ingvordsen CH, Peltonen-Sainio P, Jalli M, Lyngkjær MF, Hauschild MZ, Jørgensen RB (2015) Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: a life cycle assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios. Agric Syst 136:46–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.02.007
Onyutha C, Willems P (2017) Influence of spatial and temporal scales on statistical analyses of rainfall variability in the River Nile basin. Dyn Atmos Oceans 77:26–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.10.008
Onyutha C, Tabari H, Taye MT, Nyandwaro GN, Willems P (2016) Analyses of rainfall trends in the Nile River basin. J Hydro Environ Res 13:36–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2015.09.002
Orth R, Zscheischler J, Seneviratne SI (2016) Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe. Sci Rep 6:28334. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep28334
Pour SH, Harun SB, Shahid S (2014) Genetic programming for the downscaling of extreme rainfall events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Atmosphere 5:914–936. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos5040914
Ragab O, Negm A (2017) Trend analysis of precipitation data: a case study of Blue Nile Basin, Africa 56. https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2016_114
Rishmawi K, Prince S, Xue Y (2016) Vegetation responses to climate variability in the northern arid to sub-humid zones of sub-Saharan Africa. Remote Sens 8:910. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8110910
Roushdi M, Mostafa H, Kheireldin K (2016) Present and future climate extreme indices over Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. Int J Environ Chem Ecol Geol Geophys Eng 109:85–90
Sa’adi Z, Shahid S, Ismail T, Chung E-S, Wang X-J (2017a) Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 53:489–500. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-017-0051-2
Sa’adi Z, Shahid S, Ismail T, Chung E-S, Wang X-J (2017b) Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann–Kendall test. Meteorol Atmos Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0564-3
Salguero-Gómez R, Siewert W, Casper BB, Tielbörger K (2012) A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 367:3100–3114. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0074
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Chung E-S, Al-Abadi AM (2017) Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmos Res 198:97–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.08.011
Seager R, Naik N, Baethgen W, Robertson A, Kushnir Y, Nakamura J, Jurburg S (2010) Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in southeast South America over the past century. J Clim 23:5517–5539
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Serra C, Burgueño A, Martínez MD, Lana X (2006) Trends in dry spells across Catalonia (NE Spain) during the second half of the 20th century. Theor Appl Climatol 85:165–183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0184-6
Shahid S (2009) Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969-2003. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 45:375–389
Shahid S (2010) Probable impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh. Asia-Pac J Public Health 22:310–319. https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539509335499
Shahid S (2011) Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 104:489–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0363-y
Shahid S, Harun SB, Katimon A (2012) Changes in diurnal temperature range in Bangladesh during the time period 1961–2008. Atmos Res 118:260–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.07.008
Shahid S, Wang XJ, Harun S (2014) Unidirectional trends in rainfall and temperature of Bangladesh. In: IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports. pp 177–182
Shahid S, Hadi PS, Xiaojun W, Ahmed SS, Anil M, bin IT (2017) Impacts and adaptation to climate change in Malaysian real estate. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag 9:87–103. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2016-0001
Shaltout M, El Gindy A, Omstedt A (2013) Recent climate trends and future scenarios along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast. Geofizika 30:19–41
Sheffield J, Wood EF (2007) Characteristics of global and regional drought, 1950–2000: analysis of soil moisture data from off-line simulation of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. J Geophys Res Atmos 112:n/a-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008288
Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood EF (2006) Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological Forcings for land surface modeling. J Clim 19:3088–3111. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3790.1
Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491:435. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11575
Shourav MSA, Shahid S, Singh B, Mohsenipour M, Chung E-S, Wang X-J (2017) Potential impact of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka City. Environ Model Assess 23:131–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-017-9571-5
Sillmann J, Kharin V, Zwiers F, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:2473–2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188
Su BD, Jiang T, Jin WB (2006) Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 83:139–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0139-y
Tyralis H (2016) HKprocess: Hurst-Kolmogorov process. R package version 0.0-2
Wang X-j, Zhang J-y, Shahid S, Guan E-h, Wu Y-x, Gao J, He R-m (2016) Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 21:81–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9571-6
Weisheimer A, Schaller N, O’Reilly C, MacLeod DA, Palmer T (2017) Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143:917–926
WMO (2016) Provisional WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2016
Woollings T, Franzke C, Hodson D, Dong B, Barnes EA, Raible C, Pinto J (2015) Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability. Clim Dyn 45:539–556
Wu C, Hu BX, Huang G, Zhang H (2017) Effects of climate and terrestrial storage on temporal variability of actual evapotranspiration. J Hydrol 549:388–403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.012
Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour Res 38
Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:Warm.0000043140.61082.60
Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Li G (2004) Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. J Clim 17:1945–1952. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1945:mceotd>2.0.co;2
Zhu Y, Lin Z, Zhao Y, Li H, He F, Zhai J, Wang L, Wang Q (2017) Flood simulations and uncertainty analysis for the pearl river basin using the coupled land surface and hydrological model system. Water 9:391. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9060391
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to Universiti Teknologi Malaysia for providing financial support for this research through GUP Grant No. 19H44.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nashwan, M.S., Shahid, S. & Abd Rahim, N. Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt. Theor Appl Climatol 136, 457–473 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2498-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2498-1