Abstract
The influence of external forcings on surface temperature is not fully understood at decadal to multi-centennial timescales. This study uses simulation results from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) forced by total solar irradiation (TSI), greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations, volcanic eruptions (VOL), and land use and land covers (LULC) to investigate the possible impacts of external forcing on decadal to multi-centennial timescales over the past 2000 years. The simulated global annual mean surface temperature (GMST) variations show a good coherence with observations over the past 150 years and proxy-based reconstructions over the past 2000 years. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to isolate the GMST variations on decadal to multi-centennial timescales. We found that the VOL forcing has a significant effect on GMST at decadal to multi-decadal timescales, but its effect weakens gradually as the timescale lengthens. The TSI forcing is a major factor of GMST on multi-decadal to sub-millennial timescales, and its effect strengthens as the timescale lengthens. The GHGs is the dominant driver of recent warming, but its effect is weak in the pre-industrial times. The LULC could lead to a slight cooling trend over the past 2000 years but has no large impact on GMST at decadal to multi-centennial timescales. This study reports a 2000-year length climate simulation and may contribute to better understanding external drivers of GMST at different timescales.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agnihotri R, Dutta K, Bhushan R, Somayajulu BLK (2002) Evidence for solar forcing on the Indian monsoon during the last millennium. Earth Planet Sc Lett 198:521–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00530-7
Ammann CM, Joos F, Schimel DS, Otto-Bliesner BL, Tomas RA (2007) Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model. P Natl Acad Sci USA 104:3713–3718. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605064103
Anchukaitis KJ, Wilson R, Briffa KR, Büntgen U, Cook ER, D'Arrigo R, Davi N, Esper J, Frank D, Gunnarson BE, Hegerl G, Helama S, Klesse S, Krusic PJ, Linderholm HW, Myglan V, Osborn TJ, Zhang P, Rydval M, Schneider L, Schurer A, Wiles G, Zorita E (2017) Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Sci Rev 163:1–22
Berger A (1978) Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes. J Atmos Sci 35:2362–2367. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2
Bothe O, Jungclaus JH, Zanchettin D (2013) Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble. Clim Past 9:3789–3824. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013
Breitenmoser P, Beer J, Brönnimann S, Frank D, Steinhilber F, Wanner H (2012) Solar and volcanic fingerprints in tree-ring chronologies over the past 2000 years. Palaeogeogr Palaeocl 313–314:127–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.10.014
Briegleb B, Light B (2007) A Delta-Eddington multiple scattering parameterization for solar radiation in the sea ice component of the community climate system model. NCAR Tech
Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J Geophys Res 111:D12106. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548
Chen R, Shen J, Li C, Zhang E, Sun W, Ji M (2014) Mid- to late-Holocene East Asian summer monsoon variability recorded in lacustrine sediments from Jingpo Lake, Northeastern China Holocene https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683614561888, 25, 454, 468
Cook J, Nuccitelli D, Green SA, Richardson M, Winkler B, Painting R, Way R, Jacobs P, Skuce A (2013) Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environ Res Lett 8:031003
Craig AP, Vertenstein M, Jacob R (2012) A new flexible coupler for earth system modeling developed for CCSM4 and CESM1. Int J High Perform C 26:31–42. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094342011428141
Crowley TJ (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289:270–277. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.270
Crowley TJ, Zielinski G, Vinther B, Udisti R, Kreutz K, Dai JC, Castellano E (2008) Volcanism and the little ice age. PAGES Newsletter 16:22–23
Danabasoglu G, Bates SC, Briegleb BP, Jayne SR, Jochum M, Large WG, Peacock S, Yeager SG (2011) The CCSM4 ocean component. J Climate 25:1361–1389. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1
Duan F, Wang YJ, Shen CC, Wang Y, Cheng H, Wu CC, Hu HM, Kong XG, Liu DB, Zhao K (2014) Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave. China Sci Rep 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05159
Feddema JJ, Oleson KW, Bonan GB, Mearns LO, Buja LE, Meehl GA, Washington WM (2005) The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science 310:1674–1678. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1118160
Frank DC, Esper J, Raible CC, Buntgen U, Trouet V, Stocker B, Joos F (2010) Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate. Nature 463:527–530. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08769
Gao CC, Robock A, Ammann C (2008) Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: an improved ice core-based index for climate models. J Geophys Res 113:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239
Ge QS, Zheng JY, Hao ZX, Shao XM, Wang WC, Luterbacher J (2010) Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: an uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference. Geophys Res Lett 37:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041281
Ge QS, Zhang X, Hao ZX, Zheng JY (2011) Rates of temperature change in China during the past 2000 years. SCI CHINA EARTH SCI 54:1627–1634. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-011-4257-3
Ge QS, Hao ZX, Zheng JY, Shao XM (2013) Temperature changes of the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with northern hemisphere. Clim Past Discuss 9:507–523. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013
Huang NE, Wu ZH (2008) A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: method and its applications to geophysical studies. Rev Geophys 46:RG2006. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000228
IPCC, 2013: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA , 1535pp
Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev Geophys 37:173–199. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999RG900002
Kaplan JO, Krumhardt KM, Ellis EC, Ruddiman WE, Lemmen C, Goldewijk KK (2011) Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change. Holocene 21:775–791. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610386983
Kay JE, Deser C, Phillips A, Mai A, Hannay C, Strand G, Arblaster JM, Bates SC, Danabasoglu G, Edwards J, Holland M, Kushner P, Lamarque JF, Lawrence D, Lindsay K, Middleton A, Munoz E, Neale R, Oleson K, Polvani L, Vertenstein M (2015) The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. B Am Meteorol Soc 96:1333–1349. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1
Lamb HH (2013) Climate: present, past and future (Routledge Revivals): Volume 2: Climatic History and the Future. Routledge, reprint edition
Lawrence DM, Oleson KW, Flanner MG, Fletcher CG, Lawrence PJ, Levis S, Swenson SC, Bonan GB (2011) The CCSM4 land simulation, 1850-2005: assessment of surface climate and new capabilities. J Climate 25:2240–2260. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00103.1
Lipscomb WH, Fyke JG, Vizcaino M, Sacks WJ, Wolfe J, Vertenstein M, Craig T, Kluzek E, Lawrence DM (2013) Implementation and initial evaluation of the glimmer community ice sheet model in the community earth system model. J Clim 26:7352–7371. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00557.1
Liu J, Wang B, Yang J (2008) Forced and internal modes of variability of the east Asian summer monsoon. Clim Past 4:645–666. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-225-2008
Liu J, Wang B, Wang HL, Kuang XY, Ti RY (2011) Forced response of the east Asian summer rainfall over the past millennium: results from a coupled model simulation. CLIM DYNAM 36:323–336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0693-6
Liu J, Wang B, Cane MA, Yim SY, Lee JY (2013) Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Nature 493:656–659. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11784
Liu J, Wang B, Ding Q, Kuang XY, Soon W, Zorita E (2009) Centennial variations of the global monsoon precipitation in the last millennium: results from ECHO-G model. J Climate 22:2356–2371. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2353.1
Ljungqvist FC (2009) Temperature proxy records covering the last two millennia: a tabular and visual overview. Geogr Ann A 91:11–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2009.00350.x
Luterbacher J, Werner JP, Smerdon JE, Fernández-Donado L, González-Rouco FJ, Barriopedro D, Ljungqvist FC, Büntgen U, Zorita E, Wagner S, Esper J, McCarroll D, Toreti A, Frank D, Jungclaus JH, Barriendos M, Bertolin C, Bothe O, Brázdil R, Camuffo D, Dobrovolný P, Gagen M, García-Bustamante E, Ge QS, Gómez-Navarro JJ, Guiot J, Hao ZX, Hegerl GC, Holmgren K, Klimenko VV, Martín-Chivelet J, Pfister C, Roberts N, Schindler A, Schurer A, Solomina O, von Gunten L, Wahl E, Wanner H, Wetter O, Xoplaki E, Yuan N, Zanchettin D, Zhang H, Zerefos C (2016) European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environ Res Lett 11:024001
MacFarling MC, Etheridge D, Trudinger C, Steele P, Langenfelds R, van Ommen T, Smith A, Elkins J (2006) Law dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP. Geophys Res Lett 33:1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026152
Man WM, Zhou TJ (2014) Response of the east Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. Chin Sci Bull 59:4123–4129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-014-0404-5
Man WM, Zhou TJ, Jungclaus JH (2012) Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium with the MPI earth system model. J Clim 25:7852–7866. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00462.1
Mann ME, Jones PD (2003) Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys Res Lett 30. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017814
Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni F (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. P Natl Acad Sci USA 36:13252–13257. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805721105
Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlen W (2005) Highly variable northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03265
Molla MKI, Rahman MS, Sumi A, Banik P (2006) Empirical mode decomposition analysis of climate changes with special reference to rainfall data. Discrete Dyn Nat Soc 2006. Article ID 45348, 17 pages
Neale RB, Richter J, Park S, Lauritzen PH, Vavrus SJ, Rasch PJ, Zhang M (2013) The mean climate of the community atmosphere model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J Clim 26:5150–5168. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00236.1
PAGES 2K Consortium (2013) Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat Geosci 6:339–346. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797
Peng YB, Xu Y, Jin LY (2009) Climate changes over eastern China during the last millennium in simulations and reconstructions. Quatern Int 208:11–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.02.013
Rosenbloom NA, Otto-Bliesner BL, Brady EC, Lawrence PJ (2013) Simulating the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with the CCSM4 model. Geosci Model Dev 6:549–561. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013
Santer BD, Bonfils C, Painter JF, Zelinka MD, Mears C, Solomon S, Schmidt GA, Fyfe JC, Cole JNS, Nazarenko L, Taylor KE, Wentz FJ (2014) Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nat Geosci 7:185–189. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098
Schneider L, Smerdon JE, Buntgen U, Wilson R, Myglan VS, Kirdyanov AV, Esper J (2015) Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network. Geophys Res Lett 42(11):4556–4562. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063956
Schurer AP, Tett FB, Hegerl GC (2014) Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium. Nat Geosci 7(2):104–108. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2040
Shapiro AI, Schmutz W, Rozanov E, Schoell M, Haberreiter M, Shapiro AV, Nyeki S (2011) A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astron Astrophys 529:A67 arXiv:1102.4763
Sigl M, Winstrup M, McConnell JR, Welten KC, Plunkett G, Ludlow F, Buntgen U, Caffee M, Chellman N, Dahl-Jensen D, Fischer H, Kipfstuhl S, Kostick C, Maselli OJ, Mekhaldi F, Mulvaney R, Muscheler R, Pasteris DR, Pilcher JR, Salzer M, Schupbach S, Steffensen JP, Vinther BM, Woodruff TE (2015) Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature 523:543–549. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565
Steinman BA, Abbott MB, Mann ME, Stansell ND, Finney BP (2012) 1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. P Natl Acad Sci USA 109:11619–11623. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1201083109
Tan LC, Yj C, An ZS, Cheng H, Shen CC, Breitenbach SFM, Gao YL, Lawrence ER, Zhang HW, Du YJ (2015) A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years. Sci Rep-UK 5:12284. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12284
Thompson LG, Mosley-Thompson E, Davis ME, Zagorodnov VS, Howat IM, Mikhalenko VN, Lin PN (2013) Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years. Science 340:945–950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1234210
Wang B, Ding Q (2006) Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett 33:1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025347
Wang B, Liu J, Kim HJ, Webster P, Yim SY (2012) Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008). Clim Dynam 39:1123–1135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z
Wang HL, Liu J, Wang ZY, Wang S, Kuang XY (2011) Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium. Chin Sci Bull 56:2229–2235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4548-2
Wang YJ, Cheng H, Lawrence ER, He YQ, Kong XG, An ZS, Wu JY, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA, Li XD (2005) The holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science 308:854–857. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106296
Wang ZY, Li Y, Liu B, Liu J (2015) Global climate internal variability in a 2000-year control simulation with Community Earth System Model (CESM). Chinese Geogr Sci 25:263–273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-015-0754-1
Wilson R, Anchukaitis K, Briffa KR, Büntgen U, Cook E, D'Arrigo R, Davi N, Esper J, Frank D, Gunnarson B, Hegerl G, Helama S, Klesse S, Krusic PJ, Linderholm HW, Myglan V, Osborn TJ, Rydval M, Schneider L, Schurer A, Wiles G, Zhang P, Zorita E (2016) Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: part I: the long term context. Quaternary Sci Rev 134:1–18
Wu Z, Huang NE (2004) A study of the characteristics of white noise using the empirical mode decomposition method. P Roy Soc Lond A Mat 460:1597–1611. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2003.1221
Wu Z, Huang NE (2005) Statistical significance test of intrinsic mode functions. In Hilbert–Huang transform and its applications, in Interdisciplinary Mathematical Science, Vol. 5 (World Scientific, Singapore, 2005), pp. 107–127
Wu Z, Huang NE, Long SR, Peng CK (2007) On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. P Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889–14894. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701020104
Wang Y, Yan XD (2013) Climate responses to historical land cover changes. Clim Res 56:147–155. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01150
Yan M, Wang ZY, Kaplan J, Liu J, Min S, Wang S (2013) Comparison between reconstructions of global anthropogenic land cover change over past two millennia. Chinese Geogr Sci 23:131–146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-013-0596-7
Yang B, Qin C, Wang JL, He M, Melvin TM, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2014) A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan plateau. P Natl Acad Sci USA 111:2903–2908. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319238111
Yin JJ, Yuan DX, Li HC, Cheng H, Li TY, Edwards RL, Lin YS, Qin JM, Tang W, Zhao ZY, Mii HS (2014) Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite. Clim Past 10:1803–1816. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1803-2014
Zanchettin D, Rubino A, Matei D, Bothe O, Jungclaus JS (2013) Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium. Clim Dynam 40:1301–1318. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9
Zhang PZ, Cheng H, Lawrence ER, Chen FH, Wang YJ, Yang XL, Liu J, Tan M, Wang XF, Liu JH, An CL, Dai ZB, Zhou J, Zhang DZ, Jia JH, Jin LY, Johnson KR (2008) A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 322:940–942. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1163965
Funding
This study is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFA0600401).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, Z., Wang, J. & Zhang, S. Variations of the global annual mean surface temperature during the past 2000 years: results from the CESM1. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 2877–2887 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02775-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02775-2