Abstract
Droughts have substantial impacts on agriculture and ecosystems, resulting in tremendous economic losses and social damage. This work investigated the spatiotemporal variabilities of drought across Yunnan province from 1961 to 2015. The drought conditions were identified according to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at various timescales based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature data collected at 122 meteorological stations. Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests were adopted to analyze the trends and change points in the time series. The results showed that (1) the mean annual precipitation decreased by 15 mm/decade (p < 0.1), and the temperature increased significantly by 0.19 °C/decade (p < 0.01), indicating that Yunnan province has experienced a warming-drying climatic trend. (2) The annual SPEI exhibited a significant decreasing trend at a rate of − 0.16/decade (p < 0.01), and a change point was detected in 2002 (p < 0.05). Significant downward trends were found in the summer (p < 0.01) and autumn (p < 0.05) for the seasonal SPEI, with rates of − 0.13 and − 0.11/decade, respectively. Spatially, significant drying trends were observed in the Lancang and Pearl River Basins. (3) Higher frequencies of extreme and severe drought occurred with the extension of the timescale, particularly in central, northwestern, eastern, and northeastern Yunnan. With regard to inter-decadal variations, the drought frequencies at the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales generally increased and displayed fluctuating behavior. Moreover, the extent of the drought coverage area gradually expanded during the study period, especially after the early 2000s. (4) Increasingly frequent droughts have had substantial impacts on streamflow and agriculture over the past decade. The increase in droughts is associated with the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon, which has resulted in less precipitation in Yunnan. These results could be employed as references for the assessment of droughts and mitigation of drought disasters in Yunnan province.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Beck HE, van Dijk AIJM, Levizzani V, Schellekens J, Miralles DG, Martens B, de Roo A (2017) MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21:589–615. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-589-2017
Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano SM, Reig F, Latorre B (2014) Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. Int J Climatol 34:3001–3023. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3887
Cao J, Hu J, Tao Y (2012) An index for the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res-Atmos 117:D18108. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jd017841
Chen H, Sun J (2015) Changes in drought characteristics over China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 28:5430–5447. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00707.1
Dai A (2011) Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer drought severity index during 1900–2008. J Geophys Res-Atmos 116:D12115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015541
Dai A (2013) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Chang 3:52–58. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633
Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian TT (2004) A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1130. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-386.1
Deng S, Chen T, Yang N, Qu L, Li M, Chen D (2018) Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and drought characteristics across the Pearl River basin. Sci Total Environ 619–620:28–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.339
Dou L, Huang M, Hong Y (2009) Statistical assessment of the impact of conservation measures on streamflow responses in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Water Resour Manag 23:1935–1949. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9361-6
Duan X, Gu Z, Li Y, Xu H (2016) The spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall erosivity in Yunnan province, southwest China: an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions. Glob Planet Chang 144:82–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.011
Fan ZX, Bräuning A, Thomas A, Li J-B, Cao K-F (2011) Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during 1961–2004. Int J Climatol 31:2078–2090. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2214
Gu Z, Duan X, Liu B, Hu J, He J (2016) The spatial distribution and temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in the Yunnan Plateau, Southwest China: 1960–2012. Catena 145:291–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.06.028
He J, Li Y, Li X, Huang G (2016) Temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts over Yunnan province during 1961–2012. Mt Res 34:19–27 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Ji L, Peters AJ (2003) Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices. Remote Sens Environ 87:85–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0034-4257(03)00174-3
Kendall G (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Griffin, London
Li J, Heap AD (2014) Spatial interpolation methods applied in the environmental sciences: a review. Environ Model Softw 53:173–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.12.008
Li J, Zeng Q (2002) A unified monsoon index. Geophys Res Lett 29:1151–1154. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl013874
Li Y, He D, Hu J, Cao J (2015) Variability of extreme precipitation over Yunnan province, China 1960–2012. Int J Climatol 35:245–258. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3977
Li B, Liang Z, Zhang J, Wang G (2017) A revised drought index based on precipitation and pan evaporation. Int J Climatol 37:793–801. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4740
Liu X, Wang S, Zhou Y, Wang F, Li W, Liu W (2015) Regionalization and spatiotemporal variation of drought in China based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (1961–2013). Adv Meteorol 2015:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/950262
Liu Z, Wang Y, Shao M, Jia X, Li X (2016) Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China. J Hydrol 534:281–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.003
Lü J, Ju J, Ren J, Gan W (2012) The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity anomalies on Yunnan’s extreme drought of 2009–2010. Sci China Earth Sci 55:98–112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-011-4348-1
Ma Z, Kang S, Zhang L, Tong L, Su X (2008) Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J Hydrol 352:239–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.022
McKee T, Doesken N, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, pp 179–184
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Mohsenipour M, Shahid S, Chung E, Wang X (2018) Changing pattern of droughts during cropping seasons of Bangladesh. Water Resour Manag 32:1555–1568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1890-4
Nalbantis I, Tsakiris G (2009) Assessment of hydrological drought revisited. Water Resour Manag 23:881–897. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9305-1
Naumann G, Alfieri L, Wyser K, Mentaschi L, Betts RA, Carrao H, Spinoni J, Vogt J, Feyen L (2018) Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming. Geophys Res Lett 45:3285–3296. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076521
Palmer W (1965) Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45, Dept. of Commerce, Washington 58 pp
Peng G, Liu Y, Zhang Y (2009) Research on characteristics of drought and climatic trend in Yunnan Province. J Catastrophol 24:40–44 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Pettitt A (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28:126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729
Potop V, Boroneanţ C, Možný M, Štěpánek P, Skalák P (2013) Observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought on various time scales over the Czech Republic. Theor Appl Climatol 115:563–581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0908-y
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891
Shi H, Chen J (2018) Characteristics of climate change and its relationship with land use/cover change in Yunnan province, China. Int J Climatol 38:2520–2537. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5404
Tan C, Yang J, Li M (2015) Temporal-spatial variation of drought indicated by SPI and SPEI in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. Atmosphere 6:1399–1421. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos6101399
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94
Tong S, Lai Q, Zhang J, Bao Y, Lusi A, Ma Q, Li X, Zhang F (2018) Spatiotemporal drought variability on the Mongolian Plateau from 1980–2014 based on the SPEI-PM, intensity analysis and Hurst exponent. Sci Total Environ 615:1557–1565. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.121
Tu X, Singh VP, Chen X, Chen L, Zhang Q, Zhao Y (2015) Intra-annual distribution of streamflow and individual impacts of climate change and human activities in the Dongjiang River Basin, China. Water Resour Manag 29:2677–2695. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0963-5
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010a) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23:1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2909.1
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI, Angulo M, El Kenawy A (2010b) A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901–2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer drought severity index. J Hydrometeorol 11:1033–1043. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jhm1224.1
Wang W, Wang W, Li J, Wu H, Xu C, Liu T (2010) The impact of sustained drought on vegetation ecosystem in Southwest China based on remote sensing. Procedia Environ Sci 2:1679–1691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2010.10.179
Wang X, Zhang J, Shahid S, ElMahdi A, He R, Bao Z, Ali M (2012) Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17:923–937. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9352-4
Wang W, Zhu Y, Xu R, Liu J (2014) Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI. Nat Hazards 75:2437–2451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1436-5
Wang Y, Zhang J, Guo E, Dong Z, Quan L (2016) Estimation of variability characteristics of regional drought during 1964–2013 in Horqin Sandy Land, China. Water 8:543. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8110543
Wang Z, Li J, Lai C, Huang Z, Zhong R, Zeng Z, Chen X (2017) Increasing drought has been observed by SPEI_pm in Southwest China during 1962–2012. Theor Appl Climatol 133:23–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2152-3
Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int 10:111–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328
Wu Z, Mao Y, Li X, Lu G, Lin Q, Xu H (2016) Exploring spatiotemporal relationships among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in Southwest China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 30:1033–1044. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1080-y
Xu X, Yang D, Yang H, Lei H (2014) Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin. J Hydrol 510:530–540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.052
Xu K, Yang D, Yang H, Li Z, Qin Y, Shen Y (2015) Spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961–2012: a climatic perspective. J Hydrol 526:253–264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.047
Yan Z, Zhang Y, Zhou Z, Han N (2017) The spatio-temporal variability of droughts using the standardized precipitation index in Yunnan, China. Nat Hazards 88:1023–1042. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2904-5
Yang J, Gong D, Wang W, Hu M, Mao R (2012) Extreme drought event of 2009/2010 over southwestern China. Meteorog Atmos Phys 115:173–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0172-6
Yang R, Wang H, Hu J, Cao J, Yang Y (2017) An improved temperature vegetation dryness index (iTVDI) and its applicability to drought monitoring. J Mt Sci 14:2284–2294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4262-2
Yao J, Zhao Y, Chen Y, Yu X, Zhang R (2018a) Multi-scale assessments of droughts: a case study in Xinjiang, China. Sci Total Environ 630:444–452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.200
Yao N, Li Y, Lei T, Peng L (2018b) Drought evolution, severity and trends in mainland China over 1961–2013. Sci Total Environ 616–617:73–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.327
Yu W, Shao M, Ren M, Zhou H, Jiang Z, Li D (2013) Analysis on spatial and temporal characteristics drought of Yunnan Province. Acta Ecol Sin 33:317–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chnaes.2013.09.004
Yu M, Li Q, Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Heim RR (2014) Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index: 1951-2010? Int J Climatol 34:545–558. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3701
Yu Y, Pan F, Liu X, Chen W, He D (2017) Variations and trends of trans-boundary runoff in the longitudinal range-gorge region. J Mt Sci 14:316–324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-3862-1
Zhai J, Su B, Krysanova V, Vetter T, Gao C, Jiang T (2010) Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China. J Clim 23:649–663. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2968.1
Zhang L, Zhou T (2015) Drought over East Asia: a review. J Clim 28:3375–3399. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00259.1
Zhang W, Tang Y, Zheng j C j, Ma T (2012) Impacts of the vapor transportation by summer monsoon on drought and flooding in summer of Yunnan. J Nat Resour 27:293–301 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhang W, Zheng J, Ren J (2013) Climate characteristics of extreme drought events in Yunnan. J Catastrophol 28:59–64 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zuo D, Cai S, Xu Z, Li F, Sun W, Yang X, Kan G, Liu P (2018) Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong province of Eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 131:271–284. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1969-5
Acknowledgements
We would like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and advice.
Funding
This work is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41661099), National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0601601), Applied Basic Research Programs of Yunnan Province (Grant No. 2017FB071), and Climate Change Special Fund of the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. CCSF201736).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Li, Y., Wang, Z., Zhang, Y. et al. Drought variability at various timescales over Yunnan Province, China: 1961–2015. Theor Appl Climatol 138, 743–757 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02859-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02859-z