Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in temperature and rainfall extremes across East Asia in the CMIP5 ensemble

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We analyze annual extremes of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and of daily rainfall in East Asia and the Korean peninsula. This study made intensive use of the simulation data available from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multimodels in historical and future experiments up to the year 2100, employing three different radiative forcings: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways). Several reanalysis datasets are used to compare and evaluate the simulated climate extremes in the late twentieth century. We estimate the future changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in East Asia and Korea, and compare them to the global result, for the reference period 1986–2005. The rising rate of future cold extremes over East Asia and Korea is faster than that of warm extremes. This phenomenon appears more distinctly in Korea as a local scale, indicating more sensitivity of the Korean peninsula to global warming. The increase of the 20-year return level of maximum precipitation in the CMIP5 over East Asia by the end of twenty-first century is about 7% in the RCP2.6, 15% in the RCP4.5, and 35% in the RCP8.5 experiments, which exceed the corresponding global values. We also estimate the changes in precipitation extremes across East Asia as a function of the annual mean temperature variation at the same location. The CMIP5 sensitivity in maximum precipitation across East Asia is 5.5%/∘C, which is lower than the global figure (5.8%/∘C). The sensitivity for the Korean peninsula is 7.38%/∘C, indicating the strong impact of global warming to Korea. The results will be important in mitigating the detrimental effects of variations of climatic extremes and in improving the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environmental management, particularly for such areas in East Asia under significant changes in temperature and rainfall extremes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • AghaKouchak A, Easterling D, Hsu K, Schbert S, Sorooshian S (eds) (2013) Extremes in a changing climate: detection, analysis and uncertainty. Springer, Berlin

  • Allen M R, Ingram W J (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419:224–232

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, Caesar J, et al. (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Jour Geophys Res 111:D05109

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander LV (2016) Global observed long–term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: a review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather and Climate Extremes 11:4–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berg P, Moseley C, Haerter J O (2013) Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures. Nat Geosci 6:181–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boer G J (1993) Climate change and the regulation of the surface moisture and energy budgets. Clim Dynamics 8:225–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee D P, Uppala S M, Simmons A J, et al. (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer A M, Weigel A P, Buser C M, Knutti R, et al. (2012) Climate change projections for Switzerland based on a Bayesian multi–model approach. Intern J Climatol 32:2348–2371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fowler H J, Ekstrom M (2009) Multi–model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes. Intern J Climatol 29(3):385–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freychet N, Hsu H, Chou C, Wu C (2015) Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 projections: a link between the change in extreme precipitation and monsoon dynamics. J Clim https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00449.1

  • Freychet N, Hsu H H, Wu C H (2016) Extreme precipitation events over East Asia: evaluating the CMIP5 model. In: Coleman JSM (ed) Atmosperic Hazards – Case studies in modeling, communication, and societal impacts, IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/62996

  • Ho C -H, Park T -W, Jun S -Y, et al. (2011) A projection of extreme climate events in the 21st century over East Asia using the community climate system model 3. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 47:329–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosking JRM (1990) L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. J Roy Statist Soc 52:105–124

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC AR5 (2013) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

  • Jiang R, Xie J, Zhao Y, He H, et al. (2017) Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in Shaanxi province under climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 130:831–845

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kharin V V, Zwiers F W, Zhang X, Hegerl G C (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Climate 20:1419–1444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kharin V V, Zwiers F W, Zhang X, Wehner M (2013) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Clim Change 119:345–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim G, Cha D -H, Park C, Lee G, Jin C -S, et al. (2019) Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea. Int J Climatol 38(6):862–874. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5414

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A, Endo H, Kumar K K, Cavalcanti I F A, et al. (2013) Monsoon in a changing world: a reginal perspective in a global context. Jour Geophy Res:Atmos 118:3053–3065

    Google Scholar 

  • Kwon S H, Kim J, Boo K O, Shim S, et al. (2019) Performance-based projection of the climate change effects on precipitation extremes in East Asia using two metrics. Intern J Climatol 39(4):2324– 2335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee Y, Shin Y, Park J S, Boo K O (2020) Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble. Atmos Sci Lett, e954 https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.954

  • Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E (2008) Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geosci 1:511–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li D, Zhou T, Zou L, et al. (2018) Extreme high–temperature events over East Asia in 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C warmer futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM low–warming experiments. Geophy Res Lett 45(3):1541–1550

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niu X, Wang S, Tang J, Lee D K, Gutowsky W, et al. (2018) Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models. Intern J Climatol 38(4):2039–2055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piani C, Haerter JO, Coppola E (2010) Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe. Theor Appl Climatol 99:187–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park I H, Min S K (2017) Role of convective precipitation in the relationship between subdaily extreme precipitation and temperature. J Climate 30(23):9527–9537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park C, Min S K (2019) Multi–RCM near–term projections of summer climate extremes over East Asia. Clim Dynam 52:4937–4952

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park C, Min SK, Lee D, Cha DH, Suh MS, et al. (2016) Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia. Clim Dynam 46:2469–2486

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park J -S, Kang H -S, Lee Y, Kim M -K (2011) Changes in the extreme daily rainfall in South Korea. Intern J Climatol 31:2290–2299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruckstuhl C, Philipona R, Morland J, Ohmura A (2007) Observed relationship between surface specific humidity, integrated water vapor, and longwave downward radiation at different altitudes. J Geophys Res Atmos 112:1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sangelantoni L, Russo A, Gennaretti F (2019) Impact of bias correction and downscaling through quantile mapping on simulated climate change signal: a case study over Central Italy. Theor Appl Climatol 135:725–740

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, et al. (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report on extremes by the intergovernmental panel on climate change

  • Seo Y A, Lee Y, Park J -S, Kim N -K, Cho C, Baek H -J (2015) Assessing changes in observed and future projected precipitation extremes in South Korea. Intern J Climatol 35:1069–1078

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shin J, Lee T, Park T, et al. (2019a) Bias correction of RCM outputs using mixture distributions under multiple extreme weather influences. Theor Appl Climatol 137:201–216

  • Shin Y, Lee Y, Choi J T, Park J S (2019b) Integration of max-stable processes and Bayesian model averaging to predict extreme climatic events in multi-model ensembles. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 33:47–57. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1629-7

  • Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, et al. (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Part 2. Future projections. J Geophys Res https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188

  • Suh M S, Oh S G, Lee D K, Cha D H, et al. (2012) Development of new ensemble methods based on the performance skills of regional climate models over South Korea. J Clim 25:7067–7082

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor K E (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res 106:7183–7192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster J M, Meehl G A (2006) Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model–simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Change 79:185– 211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thibeault J M, Seth A (2014) Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5. Clim Change 127:273–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westra S, Alexander L V, Zwiers F W (2013) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J Climate 26:3904–3918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu F T, Wang S Y, Fu C B, Qian Y, et al. (2016) Evaluation and projection of summer extreme precipitation over East Asia in the Regional Model Inter–comparison Project. Climate Res 69: 45–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APHRODITE: constructing a long–term daily griddied precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl G C, Jones P, et al. (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim Change 2:851–870

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou B, Wen Q H, Xu Y, Song L, et al. (2014) Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles. J Climate 27:6591–6611

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu J, Forsee W, Schumer R, Gautam M (2013) Future projections and uncertainty assessment of extreme rainfall intensity in the United States from an ensemble of climate models. Clim Change 118(2):469–485. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0639-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the reviewers, the associate editor, and the editor for helpful suggestions, which have greatly improved the presentation of this paper. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP5, the U.S. Department of Energy Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The authors are grateful to Prof. Il-ung Chung who provided valuable comments to improve this paper.

Funding

This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2018-03414, and supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIP) (No.2016R1A2B4014518).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Data Science Lab, Korea Electric Power Corporation, Seoul, Korea

    Youngsaeng Lee

  2. Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, 500-757, Korea

    Youngsaeng Lee, Jayeong Paek & Jeong-Soo Park

  3. Institute for Biomedical Science, Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital, Hwasun, Korea

    Jayeong Paek

  4. National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Jeju, Korea

    Kyung-On Boo

Authors
  1. Youngsaeng Lee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jayeong Paek
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jeong-Soo Park
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kyung-On Boo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jeong-Soo Park.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Lee, Y., Paek, J., Park, JS. et al. Changes in temperature and rainfall extremes across East Asia in the CMIP5 ensemble. Theor Appl Climatol 141, 143–155 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03180-w

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03180-w

Keywords

Search

Navigation