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Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe

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Abstract

Climate directly influences the suitability of wine grape production. Modified patterns of temperature and precipitation due to climate change will likely affect this relevant socio-economic sector across Europe. In this study, prospects on the future of bioclimatic indices linked to viticultural zoning are derived from observed and projected daily meteorological data. Specifically, daily series of precipitation and 2-m maximum and minimum temperatures from the E-OBS data-set have been used as the regional observed baseline. Regarding projections, a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) from the European CORDEX project have been used to create projections of these variables under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future emission scenarios. A quantile-quantile adjustment is applied to the simulated regional scenarios to properly project the RCM data at local scale. Our results suggest that wine grape growing will be negatively affected in southern Europe. We expect a reduction in table quality vines and wine grape production in this region due to a future increase in the cumulative thermal stress and dryness during the growing season. Furthermore, the projected precipitation decrease, and higher rates of evapotranspiration due to a warmer climate will likely increase water requirements. On the other hand, high-quality areas for viticulture will significantly extend northward in western and central Europe. The suitability zoning for the mid-century derived from this study could contribute to better design new strategies and management practices that would benefit the European winemaking sector.

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Acknowledgments

This research is framed within the CGL2014-52199-R (EXTREMO) and CGL2017-82868-R (COASTEPS) projects, both of them funded by the Spanish “Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad” and partially supported with FEDER funds. The first author was also supported by the FPI-CAIB (FPI/1931/2016) grant from the Conselleria d’Innovacio, Recerca i Turisme del Govern de les Illes Balears and the Fons Social Europeu. The authors acknowledge the EURO-CORDEX project, sponsored by the World Climate Research Program (WRCP). The E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project and data providers in the ECA and D project (eca.knmi.nl) are also acknowledged.

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  1. Department de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122, Palma, Spain

    M. F. Cardell, A. Amengual & R. Romero

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  1. M. F. Cardell
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Cardell, M.F., Amengual, A. & Romero, R. Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe. Reg Environ Change 19, 2299–2310 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01502-x

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