Abstract
Driven by increasing demand for food and industrial consumption, world’s maize supply is under stress. Besides, the extreme temperature events are now exposing more threat to maize yield with ongoing climate change. Thus, a comprehensive analysis on maize exposure (exposure is defined as the cultivated area which is exposed to extreme temperature stress), vulnerability (here it means how much yield losses with each temperature increase/decrease at a national scale), and adaptation to extreme temperature is essential to better understand the effects on global maize production, especially in major production countries. It was found that warming trends during the growing season have extensively dominated the main maize-growing areas across the globe. And along with this mean temperature trend was the increasing heat stress and decreasing cold stress among most regions. Moreover, from 1981 to 2011, maize yield losses caused by heat stress in China, India, and the USA were 1.13, 0.64 and 1.12% per decade, respectively, while Mexico has been experiencing a reduction of yield loss due to decreased cold stress of 0.53% per decade. Furthermore, during the period of 2021–2051, the extreme heat stress would increase substantially, while the low temperature was estimated to drop slightly during the growing seasons. Such pattern had also been found over the key reproductive stage of maize. Accordingly, through the sensitivity test of two adaption measures, improved high-temperature-tolerant varieties and changing maize calendar earlier could both mitigate extreme meteorological stress on maize, while the former method would be the most effective way to do so. Our study could provide a paradigm for other crops and other countries in the world to analyze their exposure and vulnerability to the temperature stress and make corresponding adaptation measures.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adger WN, Huq S, Brown K et al (2003) Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog Dev Stud 3:179–195
Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Autom Control 19:716–723
Dee D, Uppala S, Simmons A et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597
Demeke M, Pangrazio G, Maetz M (2008) Country responses to the food security crisis: nature and preliminary implications of the policies pursued. Agric Policy Support Serv, FAO
FAO (2013) FAOSTAT
Füssel H-M, Klein RJ (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Change 75:301–329
Gabaldón-Leal C, Lorite IJ, Mínguez MI, Lizaso JI, Dosio A, Sanchez E, Ruiz-Ramos M (2015) Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain. Clim Res 65:159–173
Gerland P, Raftery AE, Ševčíková H et al (2014) World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science 346:234–237
Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR et al (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327:812–818
Gourdji SM, Sibley AM, Lobell DB (2013) Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections. Environ Res Lett 8:024041
Hallam D (2011) International investment in developing country agriculture—issues and challenges. Food Secur 3:91–98
Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball B et al (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–370
Hertel TW, Burke MB, Lobell DB (2010) The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Glob Environ Change 20:577–585
Ladha J, Dawe D, Pathak H et al (2003) How extensive are yield declines in long-term rice–wheat experiments in Asia? Field Crops Res 81:159–180
Li L (2014) An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies. J Meteorol Res 28:34–56
Lim B, Burton I, Nations DPU (2005) Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: developing strategies, policies and measures, Citeseer
Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C et al (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620
NASS. www.nass.usda.gov/Data_and_Statistics/. Accessed 26 May 2015
Pinstrup-Andersen P (2009) Food security: definition and measurement. Food Secur 1:5–7
Portmann FT, Siebert S, Döll P (2010) MIRCA2000—global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: a new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 24:GB1011
Rosenzweig C, Parry ML (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133–138
Sacks WJ, Deryng D, Foley JA et al (2010) Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:607–620
Shiferaw B, Prasanna BM, Hellin J et al (2011) Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security. Food Secur 3:307–327
Stone P (2001) The effects of heat stress on cereal yield and quality. In: Basra AS (ed) Crop responses and adaptations to temperature stress. Food Products Press, New York, pp 243–291
Tao F, Zhang Z (2010) Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. Eur J Agron 33:103–116
Tao F, Zhang Z, Zhang S et al (2012) Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Clim Res 54:233–247
Teixeira EI, Fischer G, Van Velthuizen H et al (2013) Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 170:206–215
Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al (2011) RCP4. 5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Change 109:77–94
Tubiello FN, Donatelli M, Rosenzweig C et al (2000) Effects of climate change and elevated CO2, on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. Eur J Agron 13(2–3):179–189
Wahid A, Gelani S, Ashraf M et al (2007) Heat tolerance in plants: an overview. Environ Exp Bot 61:199–223
Wang P, Chen Y, Chen Z et al (2013) Changes in annual and seasonal temperature extremes in the arid region of China, 1960–2010. Nat Hazards 65:1913–1930
Wang P, Zhang Z, Chen Y et al (2015) How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China? Clim Change 134:635–650
Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (1998) The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Wei X, Zhang Z, Shi P et al (2015a) Is yield increase sufficient to achieve food security in china? PLoS ONE 10:e0116430
Wei et al (2015b) Assessing the impact of climate change on crop yield based on three-interval temperature theory: a case study of maize in Heilongjiang Province (1960–2009). J Nat Resour 30(3):470–479
Wheeler T, Von Braun J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341:508–513
Zhang Z, Wang P, Chen Y, Song X, Wei X et al (2014) Global warming over 1960–2009 did increase heat stress and reduce cold stress in the major rice-planting areas across China. Eur J Agron 59:49–56
Acknowledgements
This study was funded by National Key Technologies R&D Program (2017YFD0300301) and National Basic Research Program of China (41571493, 41571088, 31561143003).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, L., Zhang, Z., Chen, Y. et al. Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature. Nat Hazards 91, 1257–1272 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7