Abstract
Recent rapid growth of energy use in China now exerts great pressure on energy supply and the environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development and resulting pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the most up-to-date data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, industrial, and energy supply trends. To address uncertainties, especially those surrounding the level of energy-intensive production in the next several decades, three scenarios were defined, which reasonably represent the range of plausible futures for energy development. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in China could be as high as 2.9 billion toe (tons oil equivalent) in 2030, which could exceed the available energy supply. When compared with previous energy scenario studies, this result is much higher. By using various policy options discussed in the article, however, there is potential to reduce this high demand to 2.4 billion toe in 2030.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
AIM Project Team (1996) A guide to the AIM/end-use model. AIM Interim Paper, IP-95-05, Tsukuba, Japan
China Environment Year Book Editing Committee (2004) China environment year book 2004. China Environment Year Book Editing Committee, Beijing
Edmonds J, Reilly J (1983) A long-term global energy-economic model of carbon dioxide release from fossil fuel use. Energy Economics 5:75–88
Edmonds J, Wise M, Sands R, Brown R, Kheshgi H (1996) Agriculture, land use, and commercial biomass energy: a preliminary integrated analysis of the potential role of biomass energy for reducing future greenhouse related emissions. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington DC, USA
Hu X, Jiang K (2001) GHG mitigation technology assessment (in Chinese). China Environment Science, Beijing
Hu X, Jiang K, Liu J (1996) Application of AIM/emission model in P.R. China and preliminary analysis on simulated results. AIM Interim Paper, IP-96-02, Tsukuba, Japan
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001a) Climate change 2001: mitigation. Working Group III, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2001b) IPCC special report on emission scenario. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2002) Synthesize report of TAR. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jiang K, Hu X, Matsuoka Y, Morita T (1998) Energy technology changes and CO2 emission scenarios in China. Environment Economics and Policy Studies 1:141–160
Jiang K, Morita T, Masui T, Matsuoka Y (1999) Long-term emission scenarios for China. Environment Economics and Policy Studies 2:267–287
Jiang K, Masui T, Morita T, Matsuoka Y (2000a) Long-term GHG emission scenarios of Asia-Pacific and the world. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 61:207–229
Jiang K, Morita T, Masui T, Matsuoka Y (2000b) Global long-term GHG mitigation emission scenarios based on AIM. Environment Economics and Policy Studies 3:239–254
Liu J, Ma F, Fang L (2002) China sustainable development strategy (in Chinese). China Agriculture Publishing House, Beijing
Lu Z, Zhao Y, Shen Z (2003) Whether China can become a global factory? (in Chinese). Economic Management Publishing House, Beijing
Power Industry Information (2004) China Power Vol 38, No.3, 2005
Qu K (2003) Energy, environment sustainable development study. China Environment Science, Beijing
State Statistical Bureau (2004a) China energy year book 2002–2003. State Statistical Bureau, Beijing
State Statistical Bureau (2004b) China year book 2004. State Statistical Bureau, Beijing
Tan S, Wang Y, Jiang S (2002) Economy globalization and developing countries. Social Science Documentation, Beijing
Zheng Y, Zhang X, Xu S (2004) China environment and development review. Social Science Documentation, Beijing
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
About this article
Cite this article
Jiang, K., Hu, X. Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options. Environ Econ Policy Stud 7, 233–250 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03354001
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03354001