The Variation of Stresses due to Aseismic Sliding and its Effect on Seismic Activity

Abstract

— Numerical simulation of recurring large interplate earthquakes in a subduction zone is conducted to explore the effects of aseismic sliding on the variation of stresses and the activity of small earthquakes. The frictional force obeying a rate- and state-dependent friction law is assumed to act on the plate interface in a 2-D model of uniform elastic half-space. The simulation results show that large earthquakes repeatedly occur at a constant time interval on a shallow part of the plate interface and that aseismic sliding migrates from the upper aseismic zone as well as from the lower aseismic zone into the central part of the seismogenic zone before the occurrence of a large interplate earthquake. This spatiotemporal variation of aseismic sliding significantly perturbs the stresses in the overriding plate and in the subducting oceanic plate, leading to the precursory seismic quiescence in the overriding plate and the activation of the intermediate-depth earthquakes of down-dip tension type. After the occurrence of a large interplate earthquake, the activity of the intermediate-depth earthquakes of down-dip compression type in the subducting slab is expected to increase and migrate downward. This is because the downward propagation of postseismic sliding causes the downward migration of compressional-stress increase in the down-dip direction of the plate interface. The simulation result further indicates that episodic events of aseismic sliding may occur when the spatial distributions of friction parameters are significantly nonuniform. The variation of stresses due to episodic sliding is expected to cause seismicity changes.