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An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Niños: air–sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends

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Abstract

The differences in tropical air–sea interactions and global climate connection as well as the hindcast skills for the warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT) El Niños are investigated based on observed, (re)analyzed, and model hindcast data. The robustness of observed global climate connection is established from the model simulations. Lastly, variations of atmosphere and ocean conditions in the recent decades, and their possible connection with the frequency increase of the WP El Niño are discussed. Consistent with previous results, our individual case study and composite results suggest that stronger (weaker) and more eastward extended (westward confined) westerly wind along the equatorial Pacific in early months of a year is associated with active (suppressed) air–sea interaction over the cold tongue/the Intertropical Convergence Zone complex, as well as more (less) intensive oceanic thermocline feedback, favoring the CT (WP) El Niño development. The preceding westerly wind signal and air-sea interaction differences may be responsible for the predication skill difference with higher (lower) overall hindcast skill for the CT (WP) El Niño in the Climate Forecast System of National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Our model experiments show that, in addition to the tropics, the eastern Pacific, North America and North Atlantic are the major regions having robust climate differences between the CT and WP El Niños. Nevertheless, the climate contrasts seem not robust over the Eurasian continent. Also, the frequency increase of the WP El Niño in the recent decades may not be directly connected with the linear trend of the tropical climate.

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Acknowledgments

We appreciate the comments, suggestions, and helps from Michelle L’Heureux, Kingtse Mo, Peitao Peng, and Mingyue Chen, as well as two anonymous reviewers, which largely improved the manuscript. Bohua Huang is supported by the NOAA CVP Program (NA07OAR4310310) as well as the COLA omnibus program from NSF, NOAA, and NASA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5200 Auth Road (Suite 605), Camp Springs, MD, 20746, USA

    Zeng-Zhen Hu, Arun Kumar, Bhaskar Jha, Wanqiu Wang & Boyin Huang

  2. Wyle Information Systems, Camp Springs, MD, 20746, USA

    Bhaskar Jha & Boyin Huang

  3. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA

    Bohua Huang

  4. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton, MD, 20705, USA

    Bohua Huang

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  1. Zeng-Zhen Hu
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  2. Arun Kumar
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  3. Bhaskar Jha
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  4. Wanqiu Wang
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  5. Bohua Huang
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Correspondence to Zeng-Zhen Hu.

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Hu, ZZ., Kumar, A., Jha, B. et al. An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Niños: air–sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends. Clim Dyn 38, 2017–2035 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1224-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1224-9

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