Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A six hundred-year annual minimum temperature history for the central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The recent unprecedented warming found in different regions has aroused much attention in the past years. How temperature has really changed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains unknown since very limited high-resolution temperature series can be found over this region, where large areas of snow and ice exist. Herein, we develop two Juniperus tibetica Kom. tree-ring width chronologies from different elevations. We found that the two tree-ring series only share high-frequency variability. Correlation, response function and partial correlation analysis indicate that prior year annual (January–December) minimum temperature is most responsible for the higher belt juniper radial growth, while more or less precipitation signal is contained by the tree-ring width chronology at the lower belt and is thus excluded from further analysis. The tree growth-climate model accounted for 40 % of the total variance in actual temperature during the common period 1957–2010. The detected temperature signal is further robustly verified by other results. Consequently, a six century long annual minimum temperature history was firstly recovered for the Yushu region, central TP. Interestingly, the rapid warming trend during the past five decades is identified as a significant cold phase in the context of the past 600 years. The recovered temperature series reflects low-frequency variability consistent with other temperature reconstructions over the whole TP region. Furthermore, the present recovered temperature series is associated with the Asian monsoon strength on decadal to multidecadal scales over the past 600 years.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Biondi F, Waikul K (2004) DENDROCLIM2002: a C++ program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies. Comput Geosci 30(3):303–311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradley RS (1985) Quaternary paleoclimatology: methods of paleo-climatic reconstruction. Allen and Unwin, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Bräuning A, Grießinger J (2006) Late Holocene variations in monsoon intensity in the Tibetan-Himalayan region-evidence from tree rings. J Geol Soc India 68(3):485–493

    Google Scholar 

  • Bräuning A, Mantwill B (2004) Summer temperature and summer monsoon history on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 400 years recorded by tree rings. Geophys Res Lett 31:L24205. doi:10.1029/2004GL020793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Bladé I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Clim 12:1990–2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR (1995) Interpreting high-resolution proxy climate data: the example of dendroclimatology. In: vonStorch H, Navarra A (eds) Analysis of climate variability, applications of statistical techniques. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York

  • Briffa KR (2000) Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees. Quat Sci Rev 19:87–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2001) Low frequency temperature variations from northern tree ring density network. J Geophys Res 106:2929–2941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2002) Tree-ring width and density data around the Northern Hemisphere: part 2, spatio-temporal variability and associated climate patterns. Holocene 12:759–789

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH (2004) Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review. Glob Planet Change 40:11–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Büntgen U, Esper J, Frank DC, Nicolussi K, Schmidhalter M (2005) A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer temperatures. Clim Dyn 25:141–153. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0028-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Büntgen U, Frank DC, Nievergelt D, Esper J (2006) Summer temperature variations in the European Alps, A.D. 755–2004. J Clim 19:5606–5623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Büntgen U, Tegel W, Nicolussi K, McCormick M, Frank D, Trouet V, Kaplan JO, Herzig F, Heussner KU, Wanner H, Luterbacher J, Esper J (2011) 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331:578–582. doi:10.1126/science.1197175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burns SJ, Fleitmann D, Mudelsee M, Neff U, Matter A, Mangini A (2002) A 780-year annually resolved record of Indian Ocean monsoon precipitation from a speleothem from south Oman. J Geophys Res 107:4434. doi:10.1029/2001JD001281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christiansen B, Ljungqvist FC (2012) The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Clim Past 8:765–786

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER (1985) A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization, PhD dissertation. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (1990) Methods of dendrochronology. Kluwer Academic Press, Netherlands

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Peters K (1997) Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change. Holocene 7:361–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Briffa KR, Meko DM, Graybill DA, Funkhouser G (1995) The ‘segment length curse’ in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies. Holocene 5:229–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Krusic PJ, Jones PD (2003) Dendroclimatic signals in long tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of Nepal. Int J Climatol 23:707–732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, D’Arrigo RD, Jacoby GC, Wright WE (2010) Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science 328:486–489. doi:10.1126/science.1185188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Arrigo R, Wilson R, Jacoby G (2006) On the long-term context for late 20th century warming. J Geophys Res 111:D03103

    Google Scholar 

  • Dang HS, Zhang YJ, Zhang KY, Jiang MX, Zhang QF (2012) Climate-growth relationships of subalpine fir (Abies fargesii) across the altitudinal range in the Shennongjia Mountains, central China. Clim Change 117(4):903–917. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0611-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diaz HF, Bradley RS (1997) Temperature variations during the last century at high elevation sites. Clim Change 36:253–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Efron B (1987) Better bootstrap confidence intervals. J Am Stat Assoc 82:171–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esper J (2000) Long-term tree-ring variations in Juniperus at the upper timberline in the Karakorum (Pakistan). Holocene 10:253–260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esper J, Cook ER, Schweingruber FH (2002) Low-frequency signals in long chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:2250–2253. doi:10.1126/science.1066208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan ZX, BräuningA Yang B, Cao KF (2009) Tree ring density-based summer temperature reconstruction for the central Hengduan Mountains in southern China. Glob Planet Change 65:1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan ZX, Bräuning A, Tian QH, Yang B, Cao KF (2010) Tree ring recorded May–August temperature variations since A.D. 1585 in the Gaoligong Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 296:94–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fleitmann D, Burns SJ, Mangini A, Mudelsee M, Kramers J, Villa I, Neff U, Al-Subbary AA, Buettner A, Hippler D, Matter A (2007) Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen (Socotra). Quat Sci Rev 26:170–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frank D, Esper J (2005) Temperature reconstructions and comparisons with instrumental data from a tree-ring network for the European Alps. Int J Climatol 25(11):1437–1454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London 567

    Google Scholar 

  • Fritts HC, Smith DG, Cardis JW, Budelsky CA (1965) Tree-ring characteristics along a vegetation gradient in northern Arizona. Ecology 46:393–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gou XH, Chen FH, Jacoby G, Cook E, Yang MX, Peng JF, Zhang Y (2007) Rapid tree growth with respect to the last 400 years in response to climate warming, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Int J Climatol 27:1497–1503

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harsch MA, Hulme PE, McGlone MS, Duncan RP (2009) Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming. Ecol Lett 12:1040–1049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He YQ, Zhang ZL, Theakstone WH, Chen T, Yao TD, Pang HX (2003) Changing features of the climate and glaciers in China’s monsoonal temperate glacier region. J Geophys Res 108:4530–4536. doi:10.1029/2002JD003365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holmes RL (1983) Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bull 43:69–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes MK, Vaganov EA, Shiyatov S, Touchan R, Funkhouser G (1999) Twentieth century summer warmth in northern Yakutia in a 600-year context. Holocene 9:629–634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jin LY, Qin NS, Gou XH, Chen FH, Li J (2005) Series of spring maximum temperature in southern Qinghai plateau and analysis of its variations during the last 450 years. Quat Sci 25(2):193–201 in Chinese, with English abstract

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Lough JM, van Ommen TD, Vinther BM, Luterbacher J, Wahl ER, Zwiers FW, Mann ME, Schmidt GA, Ammann CM, Buckley BM, Cobb KM, Esper J, Goosse H, Graham N, Jansen E, Kiefer T, Kull C, Küttel M, Mosley-Thompson E, Overpeck JT, Riedwyl N, Schulz M, Tudhope AW, Villalba R, Wanner H, Wolff E, Xoplaki E (2009) High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects. Holocene 19:3–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Körner C, Paulsen J (2004) A world-wide study of high altitude treeline temperatures. J Biogeogr 31:713–732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • LaMarche VJ (1974) Paleoclimatic inferences inferred from long tree ring records. Science 183(4129):1043–1048

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li JJ, Su Z (1996) Glaciers in the Hengduan Mountains (in Chinese). Science, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Li ZX, He YQ, Pu T, Jia WX, He XZ, Pang HX, Zhang NN, Liu Q, Wang SJ, Zhu GF, Wang SX, Chang L, Du JK, Xin HJ (2010) Changes of climate, glaciers and runoff in China’s monsoonal temperate glacier region during the last several decades. Quatunary International 218:13–28. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2009.05.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li ZS, Zhang QB, and Ma K (2012) Tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperature for A.D. 1475–2003 in the central Hengduan Mountains, Northwestern Yunnan, China. Clim Change 110 (1–2): 455–467. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0111-z

  • Li XX, Liang EY, Gričar J, Prislan P, Rossi S, Čufar K (2013) Age dependence of xylogenesis and its climatic sensitivity in Smith fir on the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Tree Physiol 33:48–56. doi:10.1093/treephys/tps113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang EY, Shao XM, Qin NS (2008) Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau. Global Planet Change 61(3–4):313–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang EY, Shao XM, Xu Y (2009) Tree-ring evidence of recent abnormal warming on the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Theor Appl Climatol 98(1–2):9–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang EY, Wang YF, Eckstein D, Luo TX (2011) Little change in the fir tree-line position on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau after 200 years of warming. New Phytol 190(3):760–769

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu XD, Chen BD (2000) Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Int J Climatol 20:1729–1742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303:1499–1503

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Lees J (1996) Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series. Clim Change 33:409–445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Zhang Z, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Shindell D, Ammann C, Faluvegi G, Ni F (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326:1256–1260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meko DM, Graybill DA (1995) Tree-ring reconstruction of upper Gila River discharge. Water Resource Bulletin 31:605–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Clim Appl Meteorol 26:1589–1600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlen W (2005) Highly variable Northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1997) Adjusting variance for sample size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean time series. Dendrochronologia 15:89–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Rinn F (2003) TSAPWin: Time series analysis and presentation for dendrochronology and related applications. Version 0.55 User reference, Heidelberg, p 76

  • Salzer MW, Hughes MK, Bunn AG, Kipfmueller KF (2009) Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(48):20348–20353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sano M, Furuta F, Kobayashi O, Sweda T (2005) Temperature variations since the mid-18th century for western Nepal, as reconstructed from tree-ring width and density of Abies spectabilis. Dendrochronologia 23:83–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savva Y, Oleksyn J, Reich PB, Tjoelker MG, Vaganov EA, Modrzynski J (2006) Interannual growth response of Norway spruce to climate along an altitudinal gradient in the Tatra Mountains, Poland. Trees 20:735–746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shao XM, Fan JM (1999) Past climate on west Sichun Plateau as reconstructed from ring-width of Dragon spruce. Quat Sci 1:81–89

    Google Scholar 

  • Stokes MA, Smiley TL (1968) An introduction to tree-ring dating. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, p 73

    Google Scholar 

  • Tranquilini W (1979) Physiological Ecology of the Alpine Timberline. Tree Existence at High Altitudes with Special References to the European Alps. Ecological Studies 31. Springer Verlag, Berlin

  • Wang T, Ren HB, Ma KP (2005a) Climatic signals in tree ring of Picea schrenkiana along an altitudinal gradient in the central Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China. Trees 19:735–741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang YJ, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He YQ, Kong XG, An ZS, Wu JY, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA, Li XD (2005b) The Holocene Asian monsoon, links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science 308:854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang NL, Xi Jiang, Thompson LG, Davis ME (2007) Accumulation rates over the past 500 years recorded in ice cores from the northern and southern Tibetan Plateau, China. Arct Antarct Alp Res 39(4):671–677

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang JL, Yang B, Qin C, Kang SY, He MH, Wang ZY (2013) Tree-ring inferred annual mean temperature variations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium and their relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1802-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley T, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:201–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson RJS, Luckman BH (2002) Tree-ring reconstruction of maximum and minimum temperatures and the diurnal temperature range in British Columbia. Canada. Dendrochronologia 20(3):257–268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson RJS, Luckman BH (2003) Dendroclimatic reconstruction of maximum summer temperatures from upper treeline sites in Interior British Columbia, Canada. Holocene 13:851–861

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu GB, Chen T, Liu XH, Jin LY, An WL, Wang WZ (2011) Summer temperature variations recorded in tree-ring δ13C values on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Theor Appl Climatol 105:51–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yadav RR, Singh J (2002) Tree-ring-based spring temperature patterns over the past four centuries in Western Himalaya. Quat Res 57:299–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yadav RR, Park WK, Singh J, Dubey B (2004) Do the western Himalayas defy global warming? Geophys Res Lett 31:L17201. doi:10.1029/2004GL020201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang B (2012) Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variations over the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1300–2010. Quat Sci 32 1:81–94 (in Chinese, English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang B, Bräuning A, Yao TD, Davis ME (2007) Correlation between the oxygen isotope record from Dasuopu ice core and the Asian Southwest Monsoon during the last millennium. Quat Sci Rev 26:1810–1817

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang B, Kang XC, Bräuning A, Liu JJ (2010) A 622-year regional temperature history of southeast Tibet derived from tree rings. Holocene 20(2):181–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang B, Qin C, Shi F, Sonechkin DM (2012a) Tree ring-based annual streamflow reconstruction for the Heihe River of arid northwestern China since AD 575 and its implication to water resources management. Holocene 21(7):773–784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang B, Sonechkin DM, Datsenko NM, Ivashchenko NN, Liu J, Qin C (2012b) The eigen analysis of tree-ring records: part 3, taking heteroscedasticity and sampling effects into consideration. Theoret Appl Climatol 107(3–4):519–530

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu DP, Wang QL, Wang GG, Dai LM (2006) Dendroclimatic response of Picea jezoensis along an altitudinal gradient in Changbai Mountains. Sci China Ser E 49:150–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang YX, Shao XM, Wilmking M (2011) Dynamic relationships between Picea crassifolia growth and climate at upper treeline in the Qilian Mts., Northeast Tibetan Plateau. China. Dendrochronologia 29:185–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu HF, Shao XM, Yin ZY, Xu P, Xu Y, Tian H (2011) August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings. Palaeogeogr Palaeocl Palaeoecol 305(1–4):84–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their invaluable comments. The study was jointly funded by the National Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41272189) and the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program Grant (No. XDA05080801). Nina M. Datsenko was supported by the CAS Visiting Professorship for Senior International Scientists (Grant No. 2012T1Z0033) and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (12-05-00049 and 09-05-00202-a). Bao Yang gratefully acknowledges the support of the K.C. Wong Education Foundation, Hong Kong.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 320 Donggang West Road, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Minhui He & Bao Yang

  2. Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia, Bolshoy Predtechensky lane 9/11, 123242, Moscow, Russia

    Nina M. Datsenko

Authors
  1. Minhui He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bao Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Nina M. Datsenko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bao Yang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

He, M., Yang, B. & Datsenko, N.M. A six hundred-year annual minimum temperature history for the central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series. Clim Dyn 43, 641–655 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1882-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1882-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation