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Weather factors, PCV intervention and childhood pneumonia in rural Bangladesh

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Abstract

Available evidence is limited on the association between weather factors and childhood pneumonia, especially in developing countries. This study examined the effects of weather variability on childhood pneumonia after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) intervention in rural Bangladesh. Data on pneumonia cases and weather variables (temperature and relative humidity) between the 1st January 2012 and the 31st December 2016 were collected from Matlab Hospital, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Meteorological Department, respectively. Time series cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on pneumonia. Generalized linear regression model with Poisson link was used to quantify the association between weather factors and childhood pneumonia after adjustment of PCV intervention. The annual incidence rate of pneumonia reduced from 5691/100,000 to 2000/100,000 after PCV intervention. Generalized linear regression model suggested that temperature had a negative association with childhood pneumonia (relative risk, 0.985; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.974–0.997), and PCV intervention was a protective factor with the relative risk estimate of 0.489 (95% CI, 0.435–0.551). However, no substantial association was found with relative humidity. PCV intervention appeared protective against childhood pneumonia, and temperature might be associated with this disease in children. Our findings may help inform public health policy, including the potential of development of early warning systems based on weather factors and PCV for the control and prevention of pneumonia in lower middle-income country like Bangladesh.

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Acknowledgements

The study was supported by the Queensland University of Technology Postgraduate Research Award and Queensland University of Technology Higher Degree Research International Tuition Fee Sponsorship.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Mohammad Zahid Hossain, Shilu Tong, Hilary Bambrick & Wenbiao Hu

  2. Shanghai Children’s Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China

    Shilu Tong

  3. School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China

    Shilu Tong

  4. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Al Fazal Khan

  5. Organization for Population Health Environment & Nutrition, Abhaynagar, Jashore, Bangladesh

    Samar Kumar Hore

Authors
  1. Mohammad Zahid Hossain
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  2. Shilu Tong
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  3. Hilary Bambrick
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  4. Al Fazal Khan
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  5. Samar Kumar Hore
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  6. Wenbiao Hu
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Correspondence to Wenbiao Hu.

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Hossain, M.Z., Tong, S., Bambrick, H. et al. Weather factors, PCV intervention and childhood pneumonia in rural Bangladesh. Int J Biometeorol 64, 561–569 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01842-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01842-7

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