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Spatial heterogeneity of bacillary dysentery and the impact of temperature in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China

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Abstract

Previous studies indicate that the incidence of bacillary dysentery is closely related to meteorological factors. However, the impact of temperature and the spatial heterogeneity of the disease in regions of unbalanced socioeconomic development remains unclear. Therefore, this research collected data for 29,639 daily bacillary dysentery cases in children under 5 years of age, as well as the meteorological variables from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, to analyze the spatial pattern of bacillary dysentery and reveal its nonlinear association with temperature. The SatScan method was employed first, to detect the spatial heterogeneity of the disease risk, and then the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the relationships between the daily minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures and bacillary dysentery in the stratified heterogeneous regions. The results indicated that bacillary dysentery incidence presented statistically significant spatial heterogeneity. The area of highest risk was found to be Beijing and its neighboring regions, which have high population densities. There was also a positive association between bacillary dysentery and temperature. Hotter temperatures were accompanied by higher relative risks. In the most likely spatial cluster region, the excess risk (ER) values for a 1°C rise in minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures above the median were 4.65%, 11.30%, and 19.21%, respectively. The effect of temperature on bacillary dysentery peaked at a lag of 3 to 4 days. The findings of this study will aid risk assessments and early warning systems for bacillary dysentery.

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Abbreviations

DLNM:

distributed lag nonlinear models

RR:

relative risk

ER:

excess risk

LLR:

log-likelihood ratios

AIC:

Akaike’s information criterion

DOW:

day of the week

CI:

confidence interval

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the following grants: National Science Foundation of China (41901331; 41971357), Henan Postdoctoral Science Foundation (CJ3050A0670196), and a grant from State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System: Innovation Project of LREIS (O88RA205YA, O88RA200YA). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

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Author notes

  1. Li Wang and Chengdong Xu contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475001, China

    Li Wang & Jiajun Qiao

  2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Li Wang & Chengdong Xu

  3. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng, 475001, China

    Li Wang

  4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Chengdong Xu

  5. National Institute of Hospital Administration, Beijing, 100044, China

    Gexin Xiao

  6. China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing, 100022, China

    Chaozheng Zhang

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  1. Li Wang
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  2. Chengdong Xu
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  3. Gexin Xiao
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  4. Jiajun Qiao
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Contributions

LW and CDX participated in the design of the paper and analyses of the data and drafted the manuscript. XGX and QJJ designed the paper and interpreted the findings. CZZ assisted in data analysis.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gexin Xiao.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Wang, L., Xu, C., Xiao, G. et al. Spatial heterogeneity of bacillary dysentery and the impact of temperature in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China. Int J Biometeorol 65, 1919–1927 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02148-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02148-3

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