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A verification of spatio-temporal monsoon rainfall variability across Indian region using NWP model output

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Abstract

Evaluation of weather forecasting systems and assessment of existing verification procedures are essential to achieve desirable seamless rainfall prediction. Prediction of wet and dry spells is quite useful in agriculture and hydrology but very few attempts have been made so far to resolve the issue using numerical model output. Performance of five state-of-the-art global atmospheric general circulation models and their ensemble mean has been examined in predicting the parameters of wet and dry spells (WSs/DSs) during monsoon period of 2008–2011 over seven subzones of the Indian region. The number of WSs across the region is found to be underestimated, while total duration and rainfall amount of WSs (DSs) overestimated (underestimated). Start of the first WS is late and ends of the last WS early in the model forecast. More uncertainty is noticed in the prediction of DS rainfall and its duration than that of the WS. The percentage area of India under wet conditions (rainfall amount over each grid is more than its daily mean monsoon rainfall) and rainwater over the wet area is overestimated by about 59 and 32 %, respectively, in all models.

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Abbreviations

AGCMs:

Atmospheric global circulation models

AI:

All India

BSdyn :

Dynamical Bias Score

CBS:

Commission for Basic System

CC:

Correlation coefficient

DIFF:

Mean difference

DMR:

Daily mean rainfall

DS:

Dry spell

ECMWF:

European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

ETSdyn :

Dynamical Equitable Threat Score

FARdyn :

Dynamical false alarm ratio

GDPFS:

Global Data Processing and Forecasting System

GFS:

Global Forecasting System

IMD:

India Meteorological Department

JMA:

Japan Meteorological Agency

MEAN:

Simple ensemble mean

MME:

Multimodel ensemble

MAPE:

Mean absolute percentage error

NMSG:

NCMRWF merged satellite-gauge dataset

NWP:

Numerical weather prediction

NCEP:

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NCMRWF:

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

PAI:

Percentage area of India

pe:

Percentage error

PODdyn :

Dynamical probability of detection

RW:

Rainwater

SMAPE:

Symmetric mean absolute percentage error

SZ:

Subzone

TMPA :

TRMM Multi-satellite precipitation analysis

TRMM:

Tropical rainfall measuring mission

UKMO:

United Kingdom Meteorological Office

WMO:

World Meteorological Organization

WS:

Wet spell

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Acknowledgments

The authors are extremely grateful to National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and Ministry of Earth Sciences for necessary facilities provided to pursue this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre of Excellence in Climatology, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi, 835215, Jharkhand, India

    Ashwini Ranade

  2. National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences, A-50, Institutional Area, Sector-62, Noida, 201309, UP, India

    A. K. Mitra & Swati Basu

  3. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, 411008, Maharashtra, India

    Nityanand Singh

Authors
  1. Ashwini Ranade
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  2. A. K. Mitra
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  3. Nityanand Singh
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  4. Swati Basu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ashwini Ranade.

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Responsible editor: F. Mesinger.

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Ranade, A., Mitra, A.K., Singh, N. et al. A verification of spatio-temporal monsoon rainfall variability across Indian region using NWP model output. Meteorol Atmos Phys 125, 43–61 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0317-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0317-5

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