Abstract
The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced ‘internal’ interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the ‘external’ IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole–ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO–ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ajayamohan RS, Goswami BN (2003) Potential predictability of the Asian summer monsoon on monthly and seasonal time scales. Meteorol Atmos Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-002-0576-4
Ajayamohan RS, Rao SA (2008) Indian Ocean Dipole modulates the number of extreme rainfall events over india in a warming environment. J Meteorol Soc Japan 86:245–252. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.86.245
Ajayamohan RS, Rao SA, Luo J, Yamagata T (2009) Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in a coupled general circulation model. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011096
Annamalai H, Liu P (2005) Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:805–831. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.08
Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294
Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA et al (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res Ocean 112:1–27. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003798
Behera SK, Krishnan R, Yamagata T (1999) Unusual ocean–atmosphere Indian Ocean during 1994 conditions in the tropical wind anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 26:3001–3004
Bollasina MA, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2011) Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science (80-) 334:502–505. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204994
Bracco A, Kucharski F, Molteni F et al (2007) A recipe for simulating the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon and its relation with ENSO. Clim Dyn 28:441–460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0190-0
Charney JG, Shukla J (1981) Predictability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pp 99–109
Chattopadhyay R, Phani R, Sabeerali CT et al (2015a) Influence of extratropical sea-surface temperature on the Indian summer monsoon: an unexplored source of seasonal predictability. Q J R Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2562
Chattopadhyay R, Rao SA, Sabeerali CT et al (2015b) Large scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4556
Chen T-C (1985) Global water vapour flux and maintenance using FGGE. Mon Weather Rev 113:1801–1819
Ebita A, Kobayashi S, Ota Y et al (2011) The Japanese 55-year reanalysis “JRA-55”: an interim report. Sola 7:149–152. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2011-038
Gadgil S, Gadgil S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Econ Polit Wkly 41(47):4887–4895
Gadgil S, Sajani S (1998) Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs. Clim Dyn 14:659–689. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050248
George G, Rao DN, Sabeerali CT et al (2015) Indian summer monsoon prediction and simulation in CFSv2 coupled model. Atmos Sci Lett 64:57–64. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.599
Goswami BN (1998) Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11:501–522. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0501:IVOISM>2.0.CO;2
Goswami BN, Ajayamohan RS (2000) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 14:1180–1198. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1180:IOAIVO>2.0.CO;2
Goswami BN, Shukla J (1991) Predictability of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J Clim 4:3–22
Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) Dynamics of “internal” interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM. J Geophys Res 110:D24104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006042
Goswami BN, Krishnamurthy V, Annmalai H (1999) A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125:611–633. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712555412
Graham NE (1995) Simulation of recent global temperature trends. Science 267(5198):666–671. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.267.5198.666
Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M (2008) Trends in the rainfall pattern over India. Int J Climatol 28:1453–1469. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1640
Huang B, Banzon VF, Freeman E et al (2015) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J Clim 28:911–930. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Kang IS, Jin K, Wang B et al (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0245-9
Karmakar N, Chakraborty A, Nanjundiah RS (2015) Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India. Environ Res Lett 10:54018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054018
Kirtman BP, Shukla J (2000) Influence of the Indian summer monsoon on ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:213–239. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656211
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y et al (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 93:5–48. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001
Krishnamurthy V, Ajayamohan RS (2010) Composite structure of monsoon low pressure systems and its relation to Indian rainfall. J Clim 23:4285–4305. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2953.1
Krishnamurthy V, Kirtman BP (2003) Variability of the Indian Ocean: relation to monsoon and ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:1623–1646. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.166
Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2014a) Influence of PDO on South Asian summer monsoon and monsoon-ENSO relation. Clim Dyn 42:2397–2410. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1856-z
Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2014b) Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 43:319–331. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1870-1
Krishnan R, Ayantika DC, Kumar V, Pokhrel S (2011) The long-lived monsoon depressions of 2006 and their linkage with the Indian Ocean Dipole. Int J Climatol 31:1334–1352. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2156
Krishnaswamy J, Vaidyanathan S, Rajagopalan B et al (2015) Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events. Clim Dyn 45:175–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0
Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science (80-) 284:2156–2159. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5423.2156
Kumar KK, Kumar KR, Ashrit RG et al. (2004) Climate impacts on Indian agriculture. Int J Climatol 24:1375–1393
Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M et al (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure. Science (80-) 314:115–119
Lau K-M, Kim K-M, Shen SSP (2002) Potential predictability of seasonal precipitation over the United States from canonical ensemble correlation predictions. Geophys Res Lett 29:1097. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014263
Lau KM, Lee JY, Kim KM, Kang IS (2004) The North Pacific as a regulator of summertime climate over Eurasia and North America. J Clim 17:819–833. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0819:tnpaar>2.0.co;2
Liu W, Huang B, Thorne PW et al (2015) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): part II. Parametr Struct Uncertain Estim 4:931–951. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00007.1
Mandke SK, Bhide UV (2003) A study of decreasing storm frequency over Bay of Bengal. J Indian Geophys Union 7:53–58
Nigam S (1994) On the dynamical basis for the Asian summer monsoon Rainfall-El Niño relationship. J Clim 7:1750–1771. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1750:OTDBFT>2.0.CO;2
Nigam S, Guan B, Ruiz-Barradas A (2011) Key role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the great plains. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048650
Nitta T, Yamada S (1989) Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the northern hemisphere circulation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 67:375–383
Pai DS, Pattanaik DR, Sreejith OP (2015) Monsoon 2014. India Meteorological Department
Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1994) All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224
Patwardhan SK, Bhalme HN (2001) A study of cyclonic disturbances over India and the adjacent ocean. Int J Climatol 21:527–534. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.615
Pradhan M, Yadav RK, Dandi AR et al (2016) Shift in MONSOON—SST teleconnections in the tropical Indian Ocean and ENSEMBLES climate models’ fidelity in its simulation. Int J Climatol 37(5):2280–2294. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4841
Prajeesh AG, Ashok K, Rao DVB (2013) Falling monsoon depression frequency: a Gray-Sikka conditions perspective. Sci Rep 3:2989. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02989
Preethi B, Kripalani RH, Krishna Kumar K (2010) Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in global coupled ocean–atmospheric models. Clim Dyn 35:1521–1539. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0657-x
Rajeevan MN (2013) Climate change and sustainable food security. national institute of advanced studies, Bangalore and Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi
Rajeevan M, Nanjundiah RS (2009) Coupled model simulations of twentieth century climate of the Indian summer monsoon. Platin Jubil Spec Vol Indian Acad Sci 537–568
Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Preethi B (2012) Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 38:2257–2274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x
Rajendra Kumar J, Dash SK (2001) Interdecadal variations of characteristics of monsoon disturbances and their epochal relationships with rainfall and other tropical features. Int J Climatol 21:759–771. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.628
Ramu DA, Sabeerali CT, Chattopadhyay R et al (2016) Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023538.Effect
Ramu DA, Rao SA, Pillai PA et al (2017) Prediction of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over homogenous regions of India using dynamical prediction system. J Hydrol 546:103–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.010
Rao SA, Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Goswami BN (2010) Unusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008: role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 23:5163–5174. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3257.1
Rao SA, Dhakate AR, Saha SK et al (2012) Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently? Clim Change 110:709–719. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0121-x
Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH, Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Weather Rev 111:517–528. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0517:TRBEEP>2.0.CO;2
Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Masson S (2014) The curious case of Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 27:8501–8509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00471.1
Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P et al (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun 6:7423. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423
Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, George G et al (2014) Modulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in the recent warming period. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021272.Received
Saha A, Ghosh S, Sahana AS, Rao EP (2014) Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 41:7323–7330. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061573
Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate. Clim Res 25:151–169. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025151
Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363. https://doi.org/10.1038/43854
Shukla J (1987) Monsoons. Wiley, New York
Shukla J (1998) Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science (80-) 282:728–731. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5389.728
Shukla J, Misra BM (1977) Relationships between sea surface temperature and wind speed over the central arabian sea, and monsoon rainfall over india. Mon Weather Rev 105:998–1002
Shukla J, Paolino DAD (1983) The southern oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 111:1830
Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian, longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108:1840–1853
Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) 1997: the El Niño of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 128:1778–1797. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1778:TENOOT>2.0.CO;2
Sperber KR, Palmer TN (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the atmospheric model intercomparison project. J Clim 9:2727–2750
Srivastava A, Pradhan M, George G et al (2015) A research report on the 2015 southwest monsoon. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Srivastava A, Rao SA, Rao DN et al (2017) Structure, characteristics, and simulation of monsoon low-pressure systems in CFSv2 coupled model. J Geophys Res Ocean. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012322
The NCAR Command Language (2017) (Version 6.3.0) [Software]. Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. https://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5
Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO–monsoon system. J Clim 12:2679–2690. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679:ICITEM>2.0.CO;2
Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204745
Turner AG, Annamalai H (2012) Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Change 2:587–595. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495
Vishnu S, Francis PA, Shenoi SSC, Ramakrishna SSVS (2016) On the decreasing trend of the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal. Environ Res Lett 11:14011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014011
Walker GT (1918) Correlation in seasonal variation of weather. Q J R Meteorol Soc 44:223–234
Wang B, Kang IS, Lee JY (2004) Ensemble simulations of Asian–Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J Clim 17:803–818. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0803:ESOAMV>2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Xiang B, Li J et al (2015) Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming. Nat Commun 6:7154. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8154
Weare BC (1979) A statistical study of the relationships between ocean surface temperatures and the Indian monsoon. J Atmos Sci 36:2279–2291
Webster PJ (1987) The Elementary Monsoon. In: Fein JS, Stephens PL (eds) Monsoons Wiley, New York, NY, pp 3–32
Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN et al (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103:14451. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC02719
Webster PJ, Moore AM, Loschnigg JP, Leben RR (1999) Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature 401:356–360. https://doi.org/10.1038/43848
Wu R, Kirtman BP (2003) On the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon on ENSO in a coupled GCM. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:3439–3468. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.214
Zveryaev II (2002) Tellus A: dynamic meteorology and oceanography interdecadal changes in the zonal wind and the intensity of intraseasonal oscillations during boreal summer Asian monsoon. T ellus 54:288–298. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i3.12136
Acknowledgements
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, New Delhi. We thank NCAR for making available the NCAR Command Language (NCL 2017). All data sources are duly acknowledged.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible Editor: J.-T. Fasullo.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Srivastava, A., Pradhan, M., Goswami, B.N. et al. Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability. Meteorol Atmos Phys 131, 211–224 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0565-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0565-2