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Long-term variability of precipitation series in east central Europe in relation to circulation patterns

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This paper discusses patterns of annual and monthly precipitation variability at seven weather stations in east central Europe (1851–2007). Precipitation patterns were compared to three simple regional indices of atmospheric circulation, i.e., western circulation, southern circulation and the cyclonicity (C) index and a relationship between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation index was identified. Correlations of the monthly records and multiple regression, using a principal components’ analysis, helped determine the statistical significance of the dependence of precipitation on the circulation indices. The Mann–Kendall test revealed no trend to change in any of the precipitation series, but a certain spatial regularity could be discerned in the phase of the annual periodic component. A common feature of the variability in central European annual precipitation is the dry period identified in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. In the northern part of the region, above-average precipitation was noted from the 1960s through to the mid-1970s as a result of the frequent prevalence of depressions. South of the divide, the wettest period was recorded at the turn of 1930s/1940s. After a number of very wet years in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century, precipitation began to fall at all of the region’s weather stations. The C index is the strongest circulation-linked factor influencing precipitation in central Europe and it accounts for more than 40% of the variance in spatially averaged wintertime precipitation.

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Acknowledgements

We are deeply grateful to Professor Maria Dubicka for making Wroclaw University’s precipitation records for 1946–2007 available to us. We also want to thank Dr. L. Nemec from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute of Prague for providing us with a complete and homogeneous data series from the Prague–Klementinum station. Our thanks also go to Dr. P. Domonkos for his valuable comments on the Budapest series. We are deeply grateful to an anonymous reviewer for any comments that contribute to the improvement of the paper. The English translation of the paper owes much to the translation skills of Mr. Paweł Pilch and to the proofreading skills of Dr. Martin Cahn.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climatology, University of Silesia, ul. Będzinska 60, 41-200, Sosnowiec, Poland

    T. Niedźwiedź

  2. Department of Climatology, Jagiellonian University, ul. Gronostajowa 7, 30-387, Kraków, Poland

    R. Twardosz

  3. Department of Geoinformatics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059, Kraków, Poland

    A. Walanus

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  1. T. Niedźwiedź
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Niedźwiedź, T., Twardosz, R. & Walanus, A. Long-term variability of precipitation series in east central Europe in relation to circulation patterns. Theor Appl Climatol 98, 337–350 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0122-0

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