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Assessment of regional seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system over South America

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Center Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) in describing the seasonal variability of the main climatological features over South America and adjacent oceans, in long-term simulations (30 years, 1961–1990). The analysis was performed using seasonal averages from observed and simulated precipitation, temperature, and lower- and upper-level circulation. Precipitation and temperature patterns as well as the main general circulation features, including details captured by the model at finer scales than those resolved by the global model, were simulated by the model. However, in the regional model, there are still systematic errors which might be related to the physics of the model (convective schemes, topography, and land-surface processes) and the lateral boundary conditions and possible biases inherited from the global model.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the Hadley Center for providing the PRECIS model system. CREAS is funded by MMA/BIRD/GEF/CNPq (PROBIO Project), the Brazilian National Climate Change Program from the Ministry of Science and Technology MCT, the UK Global Opportunity Fund-GOF Dangerous Climate Change (DCC), the GEOMA, the LBA2 Millennium Institute and the CLARIS-LPB project. Jose Marengo was funded by the Brazilian Research Council CNPq.

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  1. CPTEC/INPE, Rodovia Dutra Km, 40, 12630-000, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    Lincoln M. Alves & José Marengo

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  1. Lincoln M. Alves
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Correspondence to Lincoln M. Alves.

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Alves, L.M., Marengo, J. Assessment of regional seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system over South America. Theor Appl Climatol 100, 337–350 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0165-2

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