Abstract
Statistical downscaling is the technique of linking large-scale predictors and local-scale predictands through a relationship that is assumed to be helpful to generate local-scale climate change information from global climate model (GCM) driven large-scale future projection. The present study investigates downscaled seasonal and annual rainfall change scenarios over different locations of the Western Himalaya Region (WHR) of India using common predictors from ten GCMs of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and reanalysis datasets from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research); and predictands from the IMD (India Meteorological Department) rain gauge stations. The combined EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) approach was used to develop location-specific statistical downscaling models over the WHR, and later on, some statistical skill scores based on error and agreement analysis were used to validate the model performance. Downscaled precipitation scenario using a multi-model ensemble of GCM under RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5) reveals a wetter climate during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the annual and monsoon time scale, whereas a drier climate is expected in the winter. Results show a possible intensification of the southwest monsoon and decrease in the frequency of western disturbances in the twenty-first century as the percentage changes of rainfall in monsoon will be higher than annual and winter time scale. The uncertainty in the monthly precipitation is projected to increase as time progresses from the 2020s to the 2080s. Higher uncertainty in precipitation is expected in the late pre-monsoon and early post-monsoon over WHR.
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Data availability
The observational data were procured from IMD-Pune, India. They will be made available on request. The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Code availability
The codes are available on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
Jitendra Kumar Meher is thankful to Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya for providing the basic lab facility to carry out the present work. The authors sincerely thank the Norway Research Council for funding the Indo-Norway international research project INDICE through which the present work has been carried out. The authors would like to acknowledge IMD, Pune, for providing the meteorological data used in the current research. The ESGF and NCEP/NCAR were duly acknowledged for their effort to make the GCM and reanalysis data publicly available for the present work. Authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for providing valuable suggestion to improve the quality of the article.
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This work was supported by the fund received by Indo-Norway international research project INDICE. Jitendra Kumar Meher has received research support/fellowship from Norway Research Council during the preparation of the present work.
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All the authors contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection was done by Lalu Das. Material preparation and analysis were performed by Jitendra Kumar Meher. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Jitendra Kumar Meher and Lalu Das commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Both the authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Meher, J.K., Das, L. Is the Western Himalayan region vulnerable with respect to downscaled precipitation?. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 233–252 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04048-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04048-x