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Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Estimation de l’impact du future changement climatique sur la recharge en eau souterraine en Galice, Espagne

Evaluación del impacto del cambio climático futuro en la recarga de agua subterránea en la Galicia Costa, España

评价未来气候变化对西班牙Galicia-Costa地下水补给的影响

Avaliação do impacte das alterações climáticas futuras na recarga de água subterrânea na Galicia Costa, Espanha

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

Résumé

Le changement de climat peut affecter les processus hydrologiques d’un bassin versant et peut avoir comme conséquence des problèmes d’approvisionnement en eau futur pour une grande part de la population. Les résultats du projets PRUDENCE du 5ème PCRD prédisent des changements significatifs de température et de précipitation en Europe. Dans cette étude le modèle SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment) a été utilisé pour estimer les impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur la recharge de l’eau souterraine dans la province de Galicia-Costa, en Espagne. Les projections climatiques à partir de deux modèles de circulation générale et huit modèles climatiques régionaux différents ont été utilisés pour l’estimation et deux scénarios de changement climatique ont été évalués. Le calage et la validation du modèle ont été réalisés au pas de temps journalier sur quatre bassins versants représentatifs de la province. Les effets sur la recharge moyenne annuelle modélisée sont faibles, en partie à cause de la plus grande efficacité stomatale des plantes résultant de l’augmentation des concentrations en gaz carbonique. Néanmoins le changement climatique influence la variabilité temporelle de la recharge modélisée. La recharge peut se concentrer en hiver et diminuer brutalement en été et automne. En conséquence, la durée de la saison sèche peut être augmentée en moyenne de presque 30% pour le scénario d’émission A2, exacerbant les problèmes actuels dans l’approvisionnement en eau.

Resumen

El cambio climático puede impactar en los procesos hidrológicos de una cuenca y puede producir problemas con el futuro abastecimiento de agua para grandes sectores de la población. Los resultados del proyecto FP5 PRUDENCE sugieren cambios significativos en la temperatura y precipitación sobre Europa. En este estudio, se utilizó el modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) para evaluar los impactos potenciales del cambio de clima en la recarga de agua subterránea en el distrito hidrológico de Galicia Costa, España. Se utilizaron las proyecciones climáticas a partir de dos modelos generales de circulación y ocho diferentes modelos climáticos regionales para la evaluación y se asignaron dos escenarios de cambios climáticos. La calibración y la validación del modelo se llevaron a cabo usando un paso de tiempo diario en cuatro cuencas representativas en el distrito. Los efectos en la recarga anual media del agua subterránea modelada son pequeños, en parte debido a la mayor eficiencia de los estomas de las plantas en respuestas al incremento de la concentración de CO2. Sin embargo, el cambio climático influye fuertemente en la variabilidad de la recarga del agua subterránea modelada. La recarga se puede concentrar en la estación invernal y disminuir dramáticamente en la estación del verano – otoño. Como un resultado, la duración de la estación seca puede ser incrementada en promedio en casi un 30 % para el escenario A2 de emisión, exacerbando los problemas actuales en el abastecimiento de agua.

摘要

气候变化能够影响流域的水文过程,还可能导致大部分人口的未来供水出现问题。FP5 PRUDENCE 项目结果指出欧洲的气温和降雨变化非常大。在本次研究中,利用土壤和水评价工具(SWAT)模型来评价气候变化对西班牙Galicia-Costa 水文区地下水补给的潜在影响。利用从两个一般的循环模型和八个不同的区域气候模型得出的气候变化预测结果来进行评价,最终评估了两个气候变化方案。在水文区的四个代表性流域,以一天为时间步长对模型进行了校准和确认。对模拟的年平均地下水补给量影响较小,部分原因是由于在CO2 浓度增加时植物有了更高的气孔效率。然而,气候变化对模拟的地下水补给随时间的变化有显著的影响。地下水补给在冬季比较集中,在夏秋季会显著的下降。因此,在A2排放方案下,旱季持续的时间可能会平均增加近30 %,加剧了目前的供水问题。

Resumo

As alterações climáticas podem ter impactes nos processos hidrológicos de uma bacia hidrográfica e podem resultar em problemas para o abastecimento futuro de água a largos setores da população. Resultados do projeto FP5 PRUDENCE sugerem alterações significativas na temperatura e na precipitação sobre a Europa. Neste estudo, o modelo SWAT (Ferramenta de Avaliação Solo e Água) foi usado para avaliar os impactes potenciais das alterações climáticas na recarga de água subterrânea no distrito hidrológico de Galicia-Costa, Espanha. As projeções climáticas de dois modelos de circulação geral e oito diferentes modelos climáticos regionais foram usados para os estudos e dois cenários de alterações climáticas foram avaliados. A calibração e validação do modelo foram executadas usando um tempo sequencial diário em quatro bacias representativas no distrito. Os efeitos na recarga média anual da água subterrânea modelada são pequenos, em parte devido à maior eficácia estomática das plantas em resposta ao aumento da concentração de CO2. No entanto, as alterações climáticas influenciam fortemente a variabilidade temporal da recarga de água subterrânea modelada. A recarga pode concentrar-se na estação invernal e decrescer dramaticamente nas estações de verão-outono. Como resultado, a duração da estação seca pode ser incrementada, em média, em cerca de 30 % para o cenário de emissão A2, exacerbando os problemas atuais de abastecimento de água.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been partially funded by the Galician government Xunta de Galicia, within the framework of research project INCITE09 203 072 PR and by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The first author has been granted a F.P.U. fellowship by the Spanish Ministry of Education.

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  1. Escola Politécnica Superior, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Universitario s/n, 27002, Lugo, Spain

    Juan Ramón Raposo & Jorge Dafonte

  2. Amphos 21, Passeig de Garcia i Faria 49–51, 1o–1a, 08019, Barcelona, Spain

    Jorge Molinero

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  1. Juan Ramón Raposo
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  2. Jorge Dafonte
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Correspondence to Juan Ramón Raposo.

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Raposo, J.R., Dafonte, J. & Molinero, J. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain. Hydrogeol J 21, 459–479 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-012-0922-7

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