Abstract
A dataset of 1621 records of the butterfly Limenitis populi from 1960 to 2018 was compiled using data gathered in France. Limenitis populi is a poorly recorded species with a mean of 27.2 ± 14.6 records per year during this period. The aim of the study was to describe and evaluate the impact of global warming since the 1990’s on the phenology and rang in France. Using linear mixed models, we estimated a delay in adult emergence of 0.07 days per 100 m increase in altitude and an advance of 0.33 days per 1 °C of mean temperature increase. Since 1960, the mean altitude of L. populi populations has increased by 321.9 m over the last 58 years, corresponding to a gain of mean temperature of 1.74 °C during this period. By comparing projections from climatic models, 60.2% of the suitable area predicted prior to 1990 has since been lost due to warming conditions. Lowlands are more affected by a decline in areas sheltering L. populi than montane regions probably because lowland populations cannot shift to higher altitudes as a means of mitigating the effect of global warming. In addition, changes in the rural landscape may lead to the possible decline of the larval food plant Populus tremula, thus affecting butterfly abundance. In terms of conservation strategy.
Implications for Insect Conservation
The key points are (1) to avoid cutting the host plant in montane areas where climatic constraints are not a threat, and (2) to develop forest patches that include P. tremula in lowlands to locally limit the effect of global warming.
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Acknowledgements
The singular sampling for such a discrete species demonstrates the relevance of history censuses, and the spirit of cooperation of the French lepidopterists network. We express our warmest thanks to Michel Savourey, Jean-Claude Weiss, Sylvain Delmas, François Fournier, Roland Essayan, Francois Radigue, Philippe Mothiron, Quentin Delorme, Mael Garrin, Nicolas Cotrel who immediately supported the approach and conveyed their records of several years. We also wish to thank Philippe Bachelard and Marie-Françoise Faure, Assistant Curators responsible for the Zoology Department at the Musée Henri-Lecoq in Clermont-Ferrand for permission to publish the data of this collection, as well as Jérôme Petitpretre and Monique Prost, Head of the Collection Department of the Museum-Jardin des Sciences in Dijon (MJSD), for having obtained the permission to used information about Limenitis populi from the contributors to the preliminary Atlas of Rhône-Alpes butterflies. Our thanks also go to Frédéric Mora, Entomological Scientific Director for transmitting and authorizing us to use the data of the Butterfly Atlas of Burgundy and Franche-Comté, as well as Stéphane Bence Conservatory of natural areas PACA, acting as SILENE Fauna Data Administrator, for facilitating our access to data from this region. Our thanks also go to Pauli Kantonen for our exchanges on his rigorous observations on the ecology of Limenitis populi. Finally, we wish to express our gratitude to Professor Anne Bruneau for her constructive rereading of the manuscript as well as to two anonymous referees for their valuable advice on a previous version of this paper.
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Corradini, P., Serranito, B. & Petit, D. Historical observations for a sparsely recorded woodland butterfly are used to determine factors driving distribution change and to identify conservation strategies. J Insect Conserv 25, 109–121 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-020-00286-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-020-00286-4