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Maximum intensity maps (MIM) for Portugal mainland

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Abstract

Maximum intensity maps (MIM) may represent, as a first approach, the seismic risk of a certain region. In Portugal, the last MIM dates back to the eighties, suffering minor updates since then, and was based on the intensity distribution (isoseismals) of the major earthquakes affecting Portugal. Using GIS, we draw a more detailed map, not based on the isoseismal curves but based on the individual observations (intensity data points). A revision and compilation of all available macroseismic information was performed resulting on 5544 intensity data points (IDP). A MIM was produced using kriging interpolation in a GIS but inserting also the individual observations. The differences and similarities between this map and the previous one are discussed. To compare with the seismic zoning presented in the Portuguese seismic code, we performed, separately, a MIM considering only the earthquakes occurring on the NEAR seismic source zones and other MIM considering only the FAR seismic source zones. These maps were compared to the Portuguese seismic code zoning. The results obtained and discussed in this study present a high level of detail and could contribute for a better definition and estimation of the seismic hazard and risk in Portugal.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), SFRH/BSAB/135237/2017 grant, through POCH program, by CSIC-FCT Joint Project 2009PT0053 from Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (Spain), and by FCT-project UID/GEO/50019/2013–IDL. Special thanks are due to Fernando Carrilho and Paulo Alves, from the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, Lisbon, Portugal), for making available the macroseismic information collected by IPMA during most recent years (2009–2015). The authors would like also to thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions which greatly contribute to the improvement of the final version of this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal

    Paula Teves-Costa, Luis Matias & Cristina Catita

  2. Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya –ICGC, 08038, Barcelona, Spain

    Josep Batlló

  3. MNCN, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain

    Maria José Jiménez & Mariano García-Fernández

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  1. Paula Teves-Costa
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  2. Josep Batlló
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Appendix

Appendix

This appendix includes additional figures to complement the description of the methodology.

Fig. 10
figure 10

MIM obtained using ordinary kriging interpolation to all IDP in the database, with the maximum value inside a radius of 3 km chosen for each occupied grid cell

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Fig. 11
figure 11

Schematic GIS workflow to convert original IDP observations into a point feature layer classified with the maximum seismic intensities in an area of influence of 3 km radius

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Fig. 12
figure 12

Trend analysis performed in the study for 1755 (above) and 1909 (below) events and the respective trend surfaces (polynomial function of second order) used to model the spatial tendency in the universal kriging process

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Fig. 13
figure 13

Experimental semivariograms and respective fit models for 1755 (above) and 1909 (below) IDP’s. Equations describe a simplified form of the model that best fits the observations

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Fig. 14
figure 14

Two events where it is demonstrated the difficulty in modeling the experimental semivariograms (1856 event above and 1858 below). The columns in the center show different solutions of experimental semivariograms and the respective variance for the best solution. On the right column are shown the predicted surfaces estimated by kriging, only for the zones where the variance is lower than the defined threshold

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Teves-Costa, P., Batlló, J., Matias, L. et al. Maximum intensity maps (MIM) for Portugal mainland. J Seismol 23, 417–440 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-019-09814-5

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