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Action needed for staple crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills because of climate change

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Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Andean-Amazon foothills region, shaped by Andean moist forests and Amazon forests in southwestern Colombia, Napo province in Ecuador, and Ucayali Province and Napo Basin in Peru, provides local and global ecosystem services as food, water, world climate regulation, water purification, and carbon absorption. However, it faces major problems of land-use change that are exacerbated by climate change that affects these ecosystem services. For instance, conventional agriculture contribute to deforestation, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss, which might be further aggravated by climate change–induced droughts, thus reducing staple crop production and, consequently, food security. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), maize (Zea mays L.), and plantain (Musa paradisiaca L.) are major staple crops in the region. They play a key role for food security and local farmers’ income but are highly exposed to climate risks. This article aims to quantify the level of exposure to climate change (measured as climatic suitability) of these crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills by using the EcoCrop model by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. EcoCrop results showed that, whereas cassava will not lose climatic suitability, maize will lose more than half of its current suitable area, and plantain will gain and lose area, which would affect local food security. Globally, these results are important in highlighting adaptive and cost-effective strategies in agriculture and suggest that agricultural crop diversification may improve resilience by promoting the use of local crops varieties.

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Notes

  1. Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)-Colombia, National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI), National Institute of Meteorology (INMET)-Brazil, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI)-Ecuador.

  2. Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS).

  3. Agriculture Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA).

  4. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)

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Acknowledgments

This work is part of the Sustainable Amazonian Landscapes (SAL) project, which is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. The project is led by the International Center of Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and implemented together with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, the Center for Research on Sustainable Systems of Agricultural Production (CIPAV), Instituto Amazónico de Investigaciones Científicas (SINCHI), Universidad de la Amazonía in Colombia, Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana (IIAP), and Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (UNALM) from Peru. This work contributes to the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). This study is part of the Ph.D. dissertation of Lucila Marcela Beltrán Tolosa at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia (sede Palmira), that was supported by the Instituto Colombiano para el Desarrollo de la Ciencia y la Tecnología (COLCIENCIAS). We are grateful to Nora Castañeda, who helped to design the study, and to Dennis del Castillo, Jorge Parra, and John Ocampo, who collaborated with the manuscript reviewing.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia

    Lucila Marcela Beltrán-Tolosa, Carlos Navarro-Racines, Gisella S. Cruz-Garcia & Marcela Quintero

  2. Universidad Nacional de Colombia (UNAL), Palmira, Colombia

    Lucila Marcela Beltrán-Tolosa

  3. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Carlos Navarro-Racines

  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

    Prajal Pradhan

  5. Oxfam Novib, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Gisella S. Cruz-Garcia

  6. Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana (IIAP), Iquitos, Peru

    Reynaldo Solis

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  1. Lucila Marcela Beltrán-Tolosa
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ESM 1

Cross-validation of the interpolated monthly surfaces for accumulated precipitation (a and d), maximum temperature (b and e), and minimum temperature (c and f). Graphs a-d shows the variation in the coefficient of determination (R2) and d-f the root mean square error (RMSE). Dotted red line represents a R2 of 0.75 in graphs a,b and c. The dotted red line represents half of the highest value, and the solid red continuous line represents three quarters of the highest value in graphs d, e and f. (RStudio Team 2015) (PNG 86 kb)

High Resolution Image (TIF 230 kb)

ESM 2

Projected changes in seasonal rainfall for the Andean-Amazon foothills (AAF) region, toward the 2030s (top), 2050s (middle), and 2080s (bottom) for RCP 8.5. DJF (December–January-February), MAM (March-April-May), JJA (June-July-August), SON (September, October, November) quarters. ArcMap 10.5 (http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap) (PNG 258 kb)

High Resolution Image (TIF 529 kb)

ESM 3

Projected changes in seasonal minimum temperature for the Andean-Amazon foothills toward the 2030s (top), 2050s (middle), and 2080s (bottom) for RCP 8.5. DJF (December–January-February), MAM (March-April-May), JJA (June-July-August), SON (September, October, November) quarters. ArcMap 10.5 (http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap) (PNG 171 kb)

High Resolution Image (TIF 380 kb)

ESM 4

Projected changes in seasonal maximum temperature for the Andean-Amazon foothills toward the 2030s (top), 2050s (middle), and 2080s (bottom) for RCP 8.5. DJF (December–January-February), MAM (March-April-May), JJA (June-July-August), SON (September, October, November) quarters. ArcMap 10.5 (http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap) (PNG 184 kb)

High Resolution Image (TIF 404 kb)

ESM 5

Current and future climate suitability based only on precipitation of the three selected crops, cassava, maize, and plantain, in the Andean-Amazon foothills (AAF) region, modeled in EcoCrop. Red represents low suitability and green represents high suitability. ArcMap 10.5 (http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap) (PNG 232 kb)

High Resolution Image (TIF 430 kb)

ESM 6

Current and future climate suitability based only on temperature of the three selected crops, cassava, maize, and plantain, in the Andean-Amazon foothills (AAF) region, modeled in EcoCrop. Red represents low suitability and green represents high suitability. ArcMap 10.5 (http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap) (PNG 269 kb)

High Resolution Image (TIF 464 kb)

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Beltrán-Tolosa, L.M., Navarro-Racines, C., Pradhan, P. et al. Action needed for staple crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills because of climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 25, 1103–1127 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09923-4

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